934 N Wolf Crk · Warfield, KY 41250

$105,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,413 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1953 1.70 ac lot $74/sqft · 13% below area Est $120k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming brick ranch features 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, garden space, and large side and back yard, situated in a nice, quiet neighborhood.

Key facts

• Large back yard
• Large side yard
• Quiet neighborhood

Tags

• BRICK RANCH
• GARDEN SPACE
• LARGE SIDE YARD
• LARGE BACK YARD
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No zoning description provided

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single Family Residence; Residential property; Approximately 1.7-acre lot
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Garden; Metal roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Cooktop
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Refrigerator; Cooktop; Garden; Has basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $90 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#236 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Martin County (rural): math 15% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #155 of 165 in KY (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Warfield Elementary School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #525 of 676 statewide, top 82%, 304 students, 82% FRL); Martin County Middle School (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #197 of 217 statewide, top 92%, 260 students, 72% FRL); Martin County High School (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #158 of 254 statewide, top 68%, 529 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 58% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Martin County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,850 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.93%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $120,072
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -12.55%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-11,250
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-2,233
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41250

• Home prices YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,102 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $989

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $105,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $105,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $105,000 Active 133-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,229
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,575
• − Insurance: −$1,192
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,058
• − Management: −$1,058
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable loss: −$591
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$142
• After-tax cash flow: $1,218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Martin County
• NCES district ID: 2103840
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -21.00%
• Median HH income: $28,846
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8951
• State rank: #155 of 165 in KY

Livability — Warfield

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #236
• US rank: #11624

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 966

Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,561 people
• By 2030: 11,118 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 10,125 · -12.4%
• By 2050: 9,088 · -21.4%
• By 2075: 7,063 · -38.9%
• By 2100: 5,580 · -51.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Iranian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Martin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+83.6) · D 7.8% · R 91.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.0pp toward R · 2008: -54.6pp · 2024: -83.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+83.6 2020: R+78.6 2016: R+79.5 2012: R+68.2 2008: R+54.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.87%
• Current HPI: 167.4302
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $105,000 EKAR

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $183 · -17.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.