22 Pinewood Ln · Colonial Beach, VA 22443

$309,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily · 32 Days on market

Built 2021 8,712 sqft lot $240/sqft · at area comps Est $324k · at est. $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2 full bathroom single-family home built in 2021, offering modern finishes, an ideal location, and low-maintenance living just minutes from North Beach and the Colonial Beach Boardwalk, restaurants, shops, and waterfront attractions. This move-in ready home features an oversized 1.5-car garage, concrete driveway, and inviting covered front porch, perfect for relaxing outdoors. Inside, you’ll find an open and stylish kitchen with white shaker cabinetry, modern countertops, and stainless steel appliances. The spacious primary suite includes a private attached bath, while both full bathrooms showcase beautiful tile finishes. Built in 2021, this home offers the peace of mind of newer construction with updated systems, efficient living, and great curb appeal. Enjoy the charm of a beach-town lifestyle with convenient access to the water, downtown amenities, marinas, and local entertainment.

Key facts

• 8,712 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2021

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-318/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Colonial Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#460 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Westmoreland County Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #105 of 131 in VA (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Washington District Elementary (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #866 of 1,108 statewide, top 80%, 385 students, 100% FRL); Montross Middle (math 38% / reading 58%, grade C-, #247 of 342 statewide, top 74%, 309 students, 101% FRL); Westmoreland High (math 32% / reading 82%, grade C, #263 of 319 statewide, top 84%, 486 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 64% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 195 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 220 units permitted in Westmoreland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Westmoreland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,994 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.37%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,633
• List price: $309,000
• Delta: -4.52%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
84 Pinewood Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+1%)	1mo	$324,900	$250	95
261 Azure Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,288 (0%)	2mo	$311,000	$241	92
339 Azure Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,288 (0%)	3mo	$310,000	$241	91
228 Dale Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,334 (+4%)	1mo	$335,000	$251	87
236 Forest Grove Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-5%)	3mo	$314,900	$257	85
784 Lakeview Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,334 (+4%)	4mo	$330,000	$247	79
249 Wildwood Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+1%)	1mo	$359,000	$277	78
85 Wildwood Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-5%)	2mo	$309,900	$253	78
218 Shorewood Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-5%)	2mo	$290,000	$237	75
204 Woodmount Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,416 (+10%)	3mo	$365,900	$258	73
633 Shorewood Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+10%)	2mo	$367,000	$258	54
184 Poplar Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+9%)	3mo	$314,000	$223	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-51,861
• Equity at exit: $46,073

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-47,740
• Equity at exit: $26,717

Cash invested: $86,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22443

• Active inventory: 195
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,390 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,620
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,781/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,424

Max offer price $304,313

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $148	-5% $61	+0% $-27	+5% $-114	+10% $-201
Rent	-10% $-215	-5% $-121	+0% $-27	+5% $68	+10% $162
Rate	-1.0pp $129	-0.5pp $52	base $-27	+0.5pp $-107	+1.0pp $-188

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,250
• Closing costs: $9,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
47 Birch Ln Colonial Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,545	$1.96	16d	1	0.04mi
236 Meadow View Ln Colonial Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,100	$1.31	16d	1	0.08mi
314 Lake Dr Colonial Beach, VA	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,350	$1.27	16d	1	0.47mi
14 Azalea Way Colonial Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1311	$2,250	$1.72	45d	1	0.51mi
990 Ebb Tide Dr Colonial Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1632	$2,445	$1.50	45d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $309,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $309,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $309,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $309,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $309,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,000 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-04-14
    historical $309,000 937-char remark

    Show marketing remark (937 chars)

    Beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2 full bathroom single-family home built in 2021, offering modern finishes, an ideal location, and low-maintenance living just minutes from North Beach and the Colonial Beach Boardwalk, restaurants, shops, and waterfront attractions. This move-in ready home features an oversized 1.5-car garage, concrete driveway, and inviting covered front porch, perfect for relaxing outdoors. Inside, you’ll find an open and stylish kitchen with white shaker cabinetry, modern countertops, and stainless steel appliances. The spacious primary suite includes a private attached bath, while both full bathrooms showcase beautiful tile finishes. Built in 2021, this home offers the peace of mind of newer construction with updated systems, efficient living, and great curb appeal. Enjoy the charm of a beach-town lifestyle with convenient access to the water, downtown amenities, marinas, and local entertainment.

18. 2022-01-11
    soldstatus $280,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,781 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,534 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: +$753/yr (+$63/mo · 42.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,679
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,309
• − Property taxes: −$1,781
• − Insurance: −$1,545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,294
• − Management: −$2,294
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$8,989
• Taxable loss: −$5,737
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,377
• After-tax cash flow: $1,059/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westmoreland County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103980
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -47.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,665
• Composite: 39.94/100
• National rank: #3845
• State rank: #105 of 131 in VA

Livability — Colonial Beach

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #460
• US rank: #19615

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment C Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Westmoreland County · 10,011 people
• City population: 10,011
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 10,011
• Household income: $64,810
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 126.0

Population outlook (Westmoreland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,643 people
• By 2030: 17,520 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 17,041 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 16,397 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 15,012 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 12,917 · -26.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 15% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Westmoreland

• 2024 margin: R (+14.3) · D 42.4% · R 56.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.5pp toward R · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: -14.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.3 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.3 2012: D+0.5 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.23%
• Current HPI: 152.1518
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+10.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Coming Soon $309,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+37.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,781 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.