11006 Black Swan Ct · Mango, FL 33584

$205,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Other public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2015

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2 bed 1.5 bath Lakeview townhouse with community pool. Easy commute, near stores and interstates. Peaceful community. Perfect for an investor. Tenant occupied. Full disclosure: Partition lawsuit needed.

Key facts

• Built 2015
• Listed 37 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family property built in 2015; 1,140 square feet of living area
• Construction: Built in 2015
• Exterior features: Located in the Seffner Community Alliance subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $236 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#265 in FL, #4,263 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 194 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,588 (9.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.94%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-19,956
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-5,206
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33584

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,856 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $832/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,557

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11022 Black Swan Ct Seffner, FL	2.0	1.5	1252	$1,650	$1.32	4d	1	0.05mi
11033 Black Swan Ct Seffner, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,595	$1.40	24d	1	0.08mi
11037 Black Swan Ct Seffner, FL	2.0	1.5	1154	$1,650	$1.43	17d	1	0.09mi
2047 Sarah Louise Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1290	$2,235	$1.73	1d	1	0.40mi
10881 Caladesi Ave Tampa, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$2,476	$2.65	2d	20	0.46mi
2130 Redleaf Dr Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1496	$2,700	$1.80	4d	1	0.47mi
2136 Lennox Dale Ln Unit Main Brandon, FL	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,250	$1.53	17d	1	0.55mi
4610 Claymore Dr Tampa, FL	2.0–4.0	2.0	1136	$1,454	$1.28	2d	11	0.75mi
2617 Chelsea Manor Blvd Brandon, FL	2.0	1.5	1211	$1,795	$1.48	24d	1	0.87mi
5206 Colfax Pl Seffner, FL	3.0	2.0	1181	$2,100	$1.78	24d	1	1.10mi
11511 Grove Ln Seffner, FL	2.0	2.0	1174	$1,575	$1.34	24d	1	1.19mi
11614 Valencia Dr Unit A Seffner, FL	2.0	1.0	928	$1,645	$1.77	12d	1	1.27mi
10246 Douglas Oaks Cir Tampa, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$1,535	$1.43	1d	38	1.29mi
5409 McLeod Dr Unit B Tampa, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,495	$1.87	2d	1	1.30mi
5221 Mango Fruit St Seffner, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,500	$1.93	24d	1	1.36mi
11902 Mango Groves Blvd Seffner, FL	3.0	2.0	1160	$2,320	$2.00	13d	1	1.46mi
5226 Orange Ave Unit A Seffner, FL	2.0	2.0	845	$1,850	$2.19	17d	1	1.48mi
5228 Orange Ave Apt A Seffner, FL	2.0	2.0	875	$1,850	$2.11	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $205,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    listed $205,000 Active 202-char remark
16. 2004-12-15
    soldstatus $880,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $832 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,702 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$869/yr (+$72/mo · 104.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,271
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$832
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,782
• − Management: −$1,782
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$597
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$143
• After-tax cash flow: $2,979/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Mango

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #4263

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mango, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 27,172
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,579
• Household income: $72,267
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 16% Two or more races 14% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 17% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -286.15%
• Current HPI: 312.894
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-76.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $205,000 FSBO.com
• 2004-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $880,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $832 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.