10198 Forest Springs Dr · Alta Sierra, CA 95949

$69,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 15 Days on market

Built 1975 3,781 sqft lot Est $85k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this lovely 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in the peaceful community of Forest Springs. The open floor plan offers a comfortable and inviting living space, while the spacious side yard and deck provide the perfect setting for relaxing and enjoying the surrounding natural beauty. Recent improvements include a new JennAir oven, new mini split HVAC system, new water heater, fresh exterior paint, and a new washer and dryer. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence or a mountain retreat, this property offers comfort, convenience, and a serene setting. Forest Springs is an active 55+ community offering social events and a beautiful clubhouse and pool. Easy access to highway 49 and

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• New water heater
• Spacious side yard

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS SIDE YARD
• NEW JENNAIR OVEN
• NEW MINI SPLIT HVAC SYSTEM
• NEW WATER HEATER
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present)

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Attached covered parking
• Utilities: Propane; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; 220V outlet in kitchen; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park; Double-wide (dualwide); Original condition; Built in 1975
• Construction: Metal roof; Metal skirting
• Exterior features: Carport awning; Porch awning; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Electric cooktop; Hood over range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (including a master bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Multi-zone heating; Multi-unit heating; Multi-zone cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Deck attached to the great room; Covered deck; Pantry closet; Laminate counters; Window coverings and screens; Pets allowed with limit
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry closet inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.7% vs local median 3.4% in Alta Sierra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#662 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Nevada Joint Union High (town): math 25% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #201 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 252 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $481 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,457 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.36%
• DSCR: 4.40
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $85,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10096 Daisy King Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,200 (0%)	7mo	$27,500	$23	88
10070 Dalewood Way	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-4%)	4mo	$130,000	$113	72
10204 Stone Arch Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+4%)	12mo	$89,000	$71	72
10150 Stone Arch Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	1mo	$55,000	$41	71
10235 Forest Springs Dr	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+8%)	17mo	$63,000	$49	71
14821 Hidden Rock Dr #282	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,337 (+11%)	1mo	$89,500	$67	69
10088 Heritage Oak Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (+7%)	9mo	$219,000	$171	69
10123 Hidden Springs Dr #226	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,274 (+6%)	20mo	$125,000	$98	65
14338 State Highway 49 #65	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,200 (0%)	6mo	$75,000	$63	64
10039 Kenwood Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,319 (+10%)	24mo	$359,000	$272	49
14338 State Highway 49 #67	0.64mi	2/1.0	1,062 (-12%)	2mo	$54,900	$52	45
10160 Timberland Dr	0.49mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-12%)	22mo	$150,000	$142	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 76.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.48×
• Total profit: $67,642
• Equity at exit: $10,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 80.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.25×
• Total profit: $160,595
• Equity at exit: $6,009

Cash invested: $19,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95949

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,176 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$364
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,042/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $1,238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $608

Max offer price $69,500

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,286	-5% $1,262	+0% $1,238	+5% $1,214	+10% $1,190
Rent	-10% $1,066	-5% $1,152	+0% $1,238	+5% $1,324	+10% $1,410
Rate	-1.0pp $1,273	-0.5pp $1,256	base $1,238	+0.5pp $1,220	+1.0pp $1,202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,375
• Closing costs: $2,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15487 Kingsbury Cir Grass Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	3d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $69,500 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,500 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,500 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,500 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,500 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,500 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,500 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,500 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,500 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,500 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $69,500 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $59,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,106
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,893
• − Property taxes: −$1,042
• − Insurance: −$348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,088
• − Management: −$2,088
• − Depreciation: −$2,022
• Taxable income: $14,624
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,510
• After-tax cash flow: $11,350/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nevada Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0626880
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,336
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #4393
• State rank: #201 of 517 in CA

Livability — Alta Sierra

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #662
• US rank: #20497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,552
• Household income: $98,181
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.41%
• Current HPI: 230.2373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-15.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $53 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.