8665 Florin Rd #40 · Florin, CA 95828

$98,700

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured · 21 Days on market

Built 2017 $445/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

NO SPACE RENT! HOA owned park with Chip and Putt Golf Course has low monthly HOA of $445. Well maintained 2017 single wide boasts 2 bedrooms and 1 bath in 728 sq ft. Dual Pane Windows w/ 2in blinds, ceiling fan and central HVAC help keep you comfortable. Kitchen with gas range, builtin microwave, freestanding fridge, lots of cabinetry including pantry cabinet will not disappoint the cook. Bedrooms at opposite ends add privacy. Covered carport and covered front porch area. Storage Shed. Very low maintenance landscape is mostly artificial turf and loose rock with cement walkways.

Key facts

• Central hvac
• Builtin microwave
• Hoa owned park

Tags

• HOA OWNED PARK
• CHIP AND PUTT GOLF COURSE
• DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• CENTRAL HVAC
• GAS RANGE
• BUILTIN MICROWAVE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of a community with 185 units; Lot is not land-leased
• HOA & community: Mandatory association with monthly fee; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, putting green, game room, laundry, RV storage, guest parking, activities, and park interview; pet restrictions apply; Association fee includes grounds maintenance, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Two parking spaces total; Off-street parking; Attached covered parking; Guest parking available; No enclosed garage
• Utilities: Public water (water district); Public sewer; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Underground utilities; Cable and internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Single-wide; Original condition; Built in 2017; Located in a senior community
• Construction: Wood skirting; Shingle/composition roof; Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Carport awning; Porch awning; Shed(s); Fenced yard; Front and back landscaping; Regular-shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator; Microwave; Breakfast area; Pantry cabinet; Laminate countertops; Dining space in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (possible third bedroom/flex room)
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with tub/shower over; Low-flow shower and low-flow toilet
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans and central air conditioning; Central heating; Dual-pane windows with coverings; Porch with covered patio and railed steps; Porch awnings and carport awning; Washer/dryer stacked unit included (inside); Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Stacked washer/dryer included located inside; 220V in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $604 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 3.6% in Florin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#673 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 212 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $682 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,219 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.23%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $32,032
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8665 Florin Rd #109	0.02mi	2/1.5	684 (-6%)	2mo	$30,000	$44	86

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $16,615
• Equity at exit: $14,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.50×
• Total profit: $41,386
• Equity at exit: $8,534

Cash invested: $27,636 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95828

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,089 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$518
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $514/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$445
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $604

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,325

Max offer price $98,700

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $660	-5% $632	+0% $604	+5% $576	+10% $548
Rent	-10% $439	-5% $522	+0% $604	+5% $687	+10% $769
Rate	-1.0pp $654	-0.5pp $629	base $604	+0.5pp $579	+1.0pp $553

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,675
• Closing costs: $2,961
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8550 Florin Rd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	776	$1,795	$2.31	3d	16	0.37mi
7337 Power Inn Rd Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	663	$1,775	$2.68	24d	3	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $445 · $5,340/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,700 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,700 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,700 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,700 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $98,700 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $98,700 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,700 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $98,700 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $98,700 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $98,700 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $98,700 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $98,700 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $98,700 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $98,700 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $514 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $750 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$236/yr (+$20/mo · 45.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,529
• − Property taxes: −$514
• − Insurance: −$494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,006
• − Management: −$2,006
• − HOA: −$5,340
• − Depreciation: −$2,871
• Taxable income: $6,314
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,515
• After-tax cash flow: $5,734/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Florin

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #673
• US rank: #20705

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florin, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 60,532
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 61,686
• Household income: $81,778
• Rent vs Own: 35.9% rent · 64.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1765.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 37% Hispanic / Latino 26% White 16% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Pacific Islander 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 13% Vietnamese 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.49%
• Current HPI: 962.47
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.24%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $514 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.