221 W Joshua Cactus Ln · Whetstone, AZ 85616

$88,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 30 Days on market

Built 2009 Good condition 4,900 sqft lot $110/sqft · 35% above area Est $65k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 2009 Chariot Eagle 1 bed 1 bath park model fully furnished home in Quail Ridge RV Resort plus an additional lot. Full RV hook Up available. Lease assumption

Key facts

• 4,900 sq ft lot
• Built 2009
• Listed 30 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease ($2,500 annually); No association fees listed

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank sewer; Other utilities
• Home design: Manufactured / Mobile home; Leasehold ownership; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Metal siding; Steel frame; Wood frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Shed on the property; Corner lot; Gravel/stone front and back; Private maintained road; Mountain view

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Vinyl window frames
• Laundry & utility: No in-unit laundry; Coin-operated laundry in community

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $88k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $153 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($963 rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#114 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Tombstone Unified District (4168) (rural): math 21% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #150 of 249 in AZ (top 60%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $608 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,680 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.43%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $65,000
• List price: $88,000
• Delta: 35.38%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-4,529
• Equity at exit: $13,121

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $8,627
• Equity at exit: $7,609

Cash invested: $24,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85616

• Home prices YoY: -31.4%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $963 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$110 /mo · $1,320/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $153

Break-even live

Break-even rent $770

Max offer price $88,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,000
• Closing costs: $2,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-12
   days on market $88,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $88,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $88,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $88,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $88,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $88,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $88,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $88,000 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $88,000 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $88,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-05-04
    listed $88,000 Active 166-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,555
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,929
• − Property taxes: −$1,320
• − Insurance: −$440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$924
• − Management: −$924
• − Depreciation: −$2,560
• Taxable income: $457
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$110
• After-tax cash flow: $1,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2009 Chariot Eagle park model is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed. Painting the exterior and replacing worn-out deck components would significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Deck railings — Worn and need replacement
• Minor Deck flooring — Worn and need replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace deck railings and flooring — Improves safety and aesthetics
• Both Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves comfort and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Deck railings · Worn and need replacement	Minor	$500–3,000
Deck flooring · Worn and need replacement	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace deck railings and flooring — Improves safety and aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves comfort and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tombstone Unified District (4168)
• NCES district ID: 0408600
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,694
• Composite: 21.36/100
• National rank: #8362
• State rank: #150 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Whetstone

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #114
• US rank: #15262

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Whetstone, AZ
• City population: 4,845
• Population (ZIP): 4,845

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 23% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.49%
• Current HPI: 160.7957
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $88,000 ARMLS