16329 S Red Rock Ln · Cordes Lakes, AZ 86333

$195,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1974 0.40 ac lot Est $228k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautifully landscaped property, with a 2 bedroom, 2 bath doublewide home, is located on a little under a 1/2 acre. The property features a well maintained,1,248 sq.ft, home, with an open floor plan. This home has a unique feature that has kept this home in excellent condition, an additional roof built over the home to protect the inside from any water damage or leaks. The property has it all... an RV Gate, RV hook ups, an attached 220V insulated workshop, extra storage, two outside storage sheds, a framed in garden space (13 X 24 ft: See Pictures), a small animal coop, a large pear tree that bears a mighty harvest come July and August, huge pines, and a gathering place for great evenings around the fire. New double paned windows were installed in the living room and in the storage and workshop areas. New 1000-gallon septic tank and leach field installed in 2015. Come and enjoy the coolness and peacefulness of Cordes Lakes, located within easy commutes to Phoenix, Prescott, and to the north and beyond.

Key facts

• Landscaped property
• Open floor plan
• Rv hook ups

Tags

• LANDSCAPED PROPERTY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• RV GATE
• RV HOOK UPS
• ATTACHED INSULATED WORKSHOP
• EXTRA STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: RV access and parking with RV gate
• Utilities: Propane; Private water company; Septic (installed and connected); County-maintained road access
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership; Mountain views
• Construction: Wood siding; Steel frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof (see remarks)
• Exterior features: RV hookup; RV access/parking; RV gate; Shed(s); Chain-link fencing; Desert front and back; East/West exposure

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Central air; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: 3/4 bath in master bedroom; Dual-pane windows; Laminate counters; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup only; Gas dryer hookup; Other laundry hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $80 ($954/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.1% in Cordes Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#181 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mayer Elementary School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #570 of 1,109 statewide, top 52%, 373 students, 93% FRL); Mayer High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 200 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 79% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $195k implies a 225% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,647 (7.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.75%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,384
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20850 E Cedar Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,184 (-5%)	3mo	$74,000	$63	80
20907 E Marble Canyon Way	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,287 (+3%)	13mo	$235,000	$183	74
20809 E Antelope Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (+8%)	3mo	$239,900	$178	73
20921 E Skyview Ln	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,414 (+13%)	3mo	$340,000	$240	62
20721 E Mingus Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-8%)	7mo	$190,000	$165	58
20542 E Stagecoach Trl	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (0%)	18mo	$220,000	$176	51
20576 E Quail Run Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,380 (+11%)	16mo	$230,500	$167	45
16029 S Apache Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,061 (-15%)	11mo	$230,000	$217	44
20524 E Concho Ln	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,119 (-10%)	5mo	$199,000	$178	43
16057 S Indian Bend Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,081 (-13%)	15mo	$252,500	$234	41
20605 E Conestoga Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,420 (+14%)	6mo	$260,000	$183	38
20525 E Conestoga Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (-14%)	10mo	$265,000	$245	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $111,293
• Equity at exit: $175,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.93×
• Total profit: $323,813
• Equity at exit: $378,842

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,806 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,925/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,706

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    remarks 699-char remark
16. 2026-05-30
    listed $195,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥101°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,678
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,925
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,734
• − Management: −$1,734
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$2,287
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$549
• After-tax cash flow: $1,503/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayer Unified School District (4473)
• NCES district ID: 0404820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,108
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8627
• State rank: #165 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cordes Lakes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #19144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cordes Lakes, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+239.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $195,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-29 Listed $195,000 ARMLS
• 2016-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $64,500 Public Records
• 2016-08-08 Sold (MLS) $60,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $359 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.