1111 Elway St #506 · St. Paul, MN 55116

$195,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 981 sqft · Condo public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1983 $527/mo HOA · 19% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious 2 bedroom 1 bath condominium in a well maintained building and well run association. It offers generous room sizes with a southern exposure and outstanding views over Crosby park and the Mississippi River valley. The rooms are all freshly painted and carpeted. It offers a delightful balcony and a laundry with full sized washer and dryer. There is one underground heated parking stall. The living and dining rooms offer plenty of room to entertain.

Key facts

• $527 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1983

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 2.452 acres
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Property Care); Monthly association fee of $527.06; HOA covers hazard insurance, heating, lawn care, grounds maintenance, parking, professional management, sewer, snow removal, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Heated garage; Underground parking; Garage with garage door opener (1 garage space); Guest parking; Parking lot; On-site storage
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Attached residential property; One story
• Construction: 981 above-ground finished living area
• Exterior features: Stone exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (both on main level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Boiler heating; Wall air-conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: Accessible elevator installed; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $302 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 122 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $183,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.63%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-13,074
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $10,545
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55116

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,708 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,478/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$527
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,326

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $412	-5% $357	+0% $302	+5% $246	+10% $191
Rent	-10% $88	-5% $195	+0% $302	+5% $409	+10% $516
Rate	-1.0pp $400	-0.5pp $351	base $302	+0.5pp $251	+1.0pp $200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1015 Sibley Memorial Hwy Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$2,750	$2.71	0d	10	0.80mi
871 Sibley Memorial Hwy Saint Paul, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1207	$3,906	$3.24	0d	9	0.86mi
740 Victoria St S Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1076	$2,782	$2.59	0d	38	0.89mi
470 Lexington Pkwy S Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	1175	$3,500	$2.98	2d	19	1.22mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $527 · $6,324/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-04-07
   price $195,000
4. 2026-02-11
   listed $205,000 Active
5. 2026-02-06
   historical $205,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,478 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,478 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,478
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,599
• − Management: −$2,599
• − HOA: −$6,324
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $920
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$221
• After-tax cash flow: $3,399/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 25,918
• Household income: $81,141
• Rent vs Own: 49.0% rent · 51.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1609.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 13% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -451.66%
• Current HPI: 230.3529
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $195,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Listed $205,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Coming Soon $205,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,478 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.