24 Blanco Pl · Calpella, CA 95482

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 388 Days on market

Built 1985 $86/sqft · 5% below area Est $121k · 5% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

For your consideration, here is an inviting 2 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,344 sq. ft. home designed for vibrant senior living. Featuring a spacious living room, a formal dining area with a built-in hutch, and a practical kitchen equipped with a 4-burner gas cook-top, vent hood, gas double oven, and refrigerator. The large primary bedroom has a large walk-in closet and includes a private bath with a stall shower and garden tub. This home includes the amenities you expect, central heat and air conditioning, dual pane windows, and a 2-car carport and a laundry room (washer & dryer included) with ample storage. It also includes a storage shed, garden area, ramp access as well as a custom elevator lift. Residents benefit from fantastic park amenities such as clubhouse, pool and hot tub and access to walking paths within the park and along the Russian River. Nature enthusiasts will appreciate the proximity to Lake Mendocino, offering opportunities for fishing, boating, and hiking. All of this is just minutes from downtown Ukiah.

Key facts

• Central heat
• Gas double oven
• Private bath

Tags

• BUILT-IN HUTCH
• 4-BURNER GAS COOK-TOP
• GAS DOUBLE OVEN
• PRIVATE BATH
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• CENTRAL HEAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $884 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 2.5% in Calpella — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,171 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety D+, schools F.
• Ukiah Unified (town): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,018 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 388 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 388 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.96%
• DSCR: 2.47
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $121,181
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -5.10%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24 Blanco Pl	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	0mo	$110,000	$82	100
51 Rancho Grande Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	4mo	$99,000	$69	82
66 Bonita Pl	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	3mo	$80,000	$56	81
4 Cabana Ct	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	9mo	$110,000	$76	78
430 Lake Mendocino Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,425 (+6%)	0mo	$477,000	$335	76
65 Bonita Pl	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	10mo	$98,000	$79	74
77 Bonita Pl	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	12mo	$123,000	$85	71
83 Malaga Ct	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,488 (+11%)	9mo	$115,000	$77	68
801 Lake Mendocino Dr	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	6mo	$209,000	$145	62
3900 N N State Street St #52	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,400 (+4%)	16mo	$78,000	$56	56
3900 N state #77	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,492 (+11%)	2mo	$190,000	$127	52
801 E Lake Mendocino Dr #7	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	11mo	$149,000	$129	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $44,069
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $138,787
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95482

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,011 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $642/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $884

Break-even live

Break-even rent $892

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $115,000 Pending 388 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Contingent (Show) 388 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Contingent (Show) 385 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $115,000 Contingent (Show) 384 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $115,000 Contingent (Show) 383 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $115,000 Contingent (Show) 380 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $115,000 Contingent (Show) 379 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $115,000 Contingent (Show) 378 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $115,000 Contingent (Show) 377 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Contingent (Show) 376 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Contingent (Show) 375 DOM
12. 2026-02-18
    price $115,000 1036-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1036 chars)

    For your consideration, here is an inviting 2 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,344 sq. ft. home designed for vibrant senior living. Featuring a spacious living room, a formal dining area with a built-in hutch, and a practical kitchen equipped with a 4-burner gas cook-top, vent hood, gas double oven, and refrigerator. The large primary bedroom has a large walk-in closet and includes a private bath with a stall shower and garden tub. This home includes the amenities you expect, central heat and air conditioning, dual pane windows, and a 2-car carport and a laundry room (washer & dryer included) with ample storage. It also includes a storage shed, garden area, ramp access as well as a custom elevator lift. Residents benefit from fantastic park amenities such as clubhouse, pool and hot tub and access to walking paths within the park and along the Russian River. Nature enthusiasts will appreciate the proximity to Lake Mendocino, offering opportunities for fishing, boating, and hiking. All of this is just minutes from downtown Ukiah.

13. 2025-10-31
    price $118,000 1036-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1036 chars)

    For your consideration, here is an inviting 2 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,344 sq. ft. home designed for vibrant senior living. Featuring a spacious living room, a formal dining area with a built-in hutch, and a practical kitchen equipped with a 4-burner gas cook-top, vent hood, gas double oven, and refrigerator. The large primary bedroom has a large walk-in closet and includes a private bath with a stall shower and garden tub. This home includes the amenities you expect, central heat and air conditioning, dual pane windows, and a 2-car carport and a laundry room (washer & dryer included) with ample storage. It also includes a storage shed, garden area, ramp access as well as a custom elevator lift. Residents benefit from fantastic park amenities such as clubhouse, pool and hot tub and access to walking paths within the park and along the Russian River. Nature enthusiasts will appreciate the proximity to Lake Mendocino, offering opportunities for fishing, boating, and hiking. All of this is just minutes from downtown Ukiah.

14. 2025-08-27
    price $123,000 1036-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1036 chars)

    For your consideration, here is an inviting 2 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,344 sq. ft. home designed for vibrant senior living. Featuring a spacious living room, a formal dining area with a built-in hutch, and a practical kitchen equipped with a 4-burner gas cook-top, vent hood, gas double oven, and refrigerator. The large primary bedroom has a large walk-in closet and includes a private bath with a stall shower and garden tub. This home includes the amenities you expect, central heat and air conditioning, dual pane windows, and a 2-car carport and a laundry room (washer & dryer included) with ample storage. It also includes a storage shed, garden area, ramp access as well as a custom elevator lift. Residents benefit from fantastic park amenities such as clubhouse, pool and hot tub and access to walking paths within the park and along the Russian River. Nature enthusiasts will appreciate the proximity to Lake Mendocino, offering opportunities for fishing, boating, and hiking. All of this is just minutes from downtown Ukiah.

15. 2025-06-06
    price $128,000 1036-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1036 chars)

    For your consideration, here is an inviting 2 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,344 sq. ft. home designed for vibrant senior living. Featuring a spacious living room, a formal dining area with a built-in hutch, and a practical kitchen equipped with a 4-burner gas cook-top, vent hood, gas double oven, and refrigerator. The large primary bedroom has a large walk-in closet and includes a private bath with a stall shower and garden tub. This home includes the amenities you expect, central heat and air conditioning, dual pane windows, and a 2-car carport and a laundry room (washer & dryer included) with ample storage. It also includes a storage shed, garden area, ramp access as well as a custom elevator lift. Residents benefit from fantastic park amenities such as clubhouse, pool and hot tub and access to walking paths within the park and along the Russian River. Nature enthusiasts will appreciate the proximity to Lake Mendocino, offering opportunities for fishing, boating, and hiking. All of this is just minutes from downtown Ukiah.

16. 2025-05-20
    listed $134,000 Active 1036-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1036 chars)

    For your consideration, here is an inviting 2 bedroom, 2 bath, 1,344 sq. ft. home designed for vibrant senior living. Featuring a spacious living room, a formal dining area with a built-in hutch, and a practical kitchen equipped with a 4-burner gas cook-top, vent hood, gas double oven, and refrigerator. The large primary bedroom has a large walk-in closet and includes a private bath with a stall shower and garden tub. This home includes the amenities you expect, central heat and air conditioning, dual pane windows, and a 2-car carport and a laundry room (washer & dryer included) with ample storage. It also includes a storage shed, garden area, ramp access as well as a custom elevator lift. Residents benefit from fantastic park amenities such as clubhouse, pool and hot tub and access to walking paths within the park and along the Russian River. Nature enthusiasts will appreciate the proximity to Lake Mendocino, offering opportunities for fishing, boating, and hiking. All of this is just minutes from downtown Ukiah.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $642 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $874 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$232/yr (+$19/mo · 36.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$642
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,931
• − Management: −$1,931
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $9,269
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,224
• After-tax cash flow: $8,388/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ukiah Unified
• NCES district ID: 0640300
• Math proficiency: 24% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,865
• Composite: 29.21/100
• National rank: #11858
• State rank: #1018 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Calpella

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1171
• US rank: #25917

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mendocino County · 33,164 people
• City population: 33,164
• Metro: Ukiah, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,164
• Household income: $69,772
• Rent vs Own: 44.7% rent · 55.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1349.0

Population outlook (Mendocino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,643 people
• By 2030: 82,138 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 76,402 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 71,759 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 61,454 · -27.4%
• By 2100: 50,130 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 18% Asian 3% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 25% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mendocino

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.8) · D 61.3% · R 34.5% · Other 4.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 42.8pp · 2024: 26.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.8 2020: D+35.8 2016: D+29.1 2012: D+37.6 2008: D+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -485.34%
• Current HPI: 164.6978
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.07%
• Metro: Ukiah, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-14.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $115,000 BAREIS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $118,000 BAREIS
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $123,000 BAREIS
• 2025-06-06 Price Changed $128,000 BAREIS
• 2025-05-20 Listed $134,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $642 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.