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17906 Turning Leaf Cir
D- Composite 37.85
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +11.3/15.0
  • Cash flow +7.3/30.0
  • Schools +5.7/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Livability +3.3/5.0
  • 1% rule +3.2/10.0
  • Rent growth +1.6/5.0
  • DSCR +1.5/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$289,000

17906 Turning Leaf Cir · Connerton, FL 34638
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,532 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market
Built 2022 Good condition 4,155 sqft lot 2-car garage $189/sqft · 8% below area Est $316k · 8% under $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Imagine ending each day with breathtaking waterview sunsets from your screened-in porch, peacefully overlooking the pond—truly a tranquil retreat and one of the home’s most special features. Freshly painted and move-in ready, this well-designed floor plan offers 3 bedrooms (or 2 bedrooms plus a dedicated office/flex space), 2 full bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. Inside, you’ll find granite countertops, a spacious pantry, a large utility closet for extra storage, and a convenient indoor laundry room. The fenced backyard provides added privacy and space for pets or outdoor enjoyment.

Key facts

  • Overlooking the pond
  • Dog park
  • Screened-in porch

Tags

SCREENED-IN PORCHOVERLOOKING THE PONDFENCED-IN BACKYARDCYPRESS PRESERVE COMMUNITYRESORT-STYLE POOLDOG PARK

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-383 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (23.4% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (17.6% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $221k (23.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
  • Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 873 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 13662% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $221,398 (23.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.82%
Cap rate
4.70%
Cash-on-cash
-5.67%
DSCR
0.75
GRM
10.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$315,601
List price
$289,000
Delta
-8.43%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
17804 Turning Leaf Cir 0.10mi 3/2.0 1,532 (0%) 2mo $290,000 $189 94
18184 Turning Leaf Cir 0.12mi 3/2.0 1,532 (0%) 5mo $312,000 $204 90
18261 Turning Leaf Cir 0.20mi 3/2.0 1,532 (0%) 5mo $290,000 $189 87
17663 Turning Leaf Cir 0.25mi 3/2.0 1,532 (0%) 2mo $280,000 $183 86
10495 Gliding Eagle Way 0.29mi 3/2.0 1,500 (-2%) 2mo $362,000 $241 81
10378 Gliding Eagle Way 0.39mi 3/2.0 1,545 (+1%) 2mo $373,000 $241 78
10647 Gentle Rain Dr 0.34mi 3/2.0 1,560 (+2%) 6mo $339,990 $218 76
10631 Gentle Rain Dr 0.35mi 3/2.0 1,560 (+2%) 7mo $339,990 $218 75
10456 Red Tailed Hawk Ln 0.48mi 3/2.0 1,532 (0%) 4mo $353,000 $230 74
10591 Gentle Rain Dr 0.35mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,665 (+9%) 6mo $344,990 $207 59
10623 Gentle Rain Dr 0.35mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,665 (+9%) 7mo $349,990 $210 58
9928 Torrisdale Loop 0.72mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,484 (-3%) 5mo $350,000 $236 52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-29.9%
Equity multiple
0.04×
Total profit
$-77,980
Equity at exit
$43,091
10-year hold
IRR
-54.2%
Equity multiple
-0.55×
Total profit
$-125,435
Equity at exit
$24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
32 active · 10 under contract
Months of supply
10.1 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$324,950 ($200/sqft)
Median days on market
57 d
This list price
6% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+2.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34638

Home prices YoY
-16.0%
Rents YoY
-3.8%
Active inventory
873
Price-to-rent
10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,380 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,516
Tax from tax record
$502 /mo · $6,024/yr
Insurance
$120
HOA
$125
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$500
Net cashflow
$-383

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,865
Max offer price $221,398
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-219 -5% $-301 +0% $-383 +5% $-464 +10% $-546
Rent -10% $-571 -5% $-477 +0% $-383 +5% $-289 +10% $-195
Rate -1.0pp $-237 -0.5pp $-309 base $-383 +0.5pp $-458 +1.0pp $-534

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$72,250
Closing costs
$8,670
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 40 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
18039 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.0 1516 $2,895 $1.91 73d 1 0.10mi
17784 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.0 1532 $2,450 $1.60 73d 1 0.12mi
18276 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.0 1532 $2,250 $1.47 73d 1 0.21mi
18276 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.0 1532 $2,250 $1.47 40d 1 0.21mi
18267 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.0 1516 $2,095 $1.38 40d 1 0.21mi
18267 Turning Leaf Cir Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.0 1516 $2,095 $1.38 73d 1 0.21mi
18337 Falling Pine Needle Ln Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.0 1850 $2,200 $1.19 7d 1 0.28mi
10956 Wishing Cloud Rd Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 3.0 1666 $1,975 $1.19 13d 1 0.29mi
10956 Wishing Cloud Rd Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 3.0 1666 $1,975 $1.19 15d 1 0.29mi
10981 Wishing Cloud Rd Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1787 $2,000 $1.12 69d 1 0.32mi
10735 Hawks Landing Dr Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 3.0 1848 $2,495 $1.35 64d 1 0.32mi
11103 Wishing Cloud Rd Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1787 $2,350 $1.32 73d 1 0.38mi
11115 Wishing Cloud Rd Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1666 $2,250 $1.35 73d 1 0.39mi
18236 Hunters Meadow Walk Land O Lakes, FL 4.0 2.0 2023 $2,195 $1.09 42d 1 0.60mi
18236 Hunters Meadow Walk Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.0 2025 $2,195 $1.08 24d 1 0.60mi
11070 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1673 $1,950 $1.17 73d 1 0.62mi
11236 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1673 $1,985 $1.19 25d 1 0.64mi
11071 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1673 $2,100 $1.26 73d 1 0.65mi
11440 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1673 $2,050 $1.23 21d 1 0.65mi
11450 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1673 $1,995 $1.19 67d 1 0.65mi
11262 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1673 $2,195 $1.31 27d 1 0.65mi
11262 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1673 $2,195 $1.31 54d 1 0.65mi
11147 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1673 $1,995 $1.19 73d 1 0.65mi
11028 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1673 $2,075 $1.24 73d 1 0.66mi
11028 Crescent Deer Dr Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1673 $2,075 $1.24 64d 1 0.66mi
11194 Treasure Swale Way Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1673 $2,200 $1.32 9d 1 0.68mi
18774 Grand Live Oak Blvd Land O' Lakes, FL 3.0 2.0 1303 $2,349 $1.80 48d 1 0.69mi
18114 Cypress Bay Pkwy Land O Lakes, FL 4.0 2.0 1484 $2,000 $1.35 7d 1 0.72mi
17534 Shirewood Way Land O Lakes, FL 4.0 2.5 1870 $2,495 $1.33 7d 1 0.73mi
17534 Shirewood Way Land O Lakes, FL 4.0 2.5 1870 $2,750 $1.47 40d 1 0.73mi
17512 Shirewood Way Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.0 1448 $2,200 $1.52 73d 1 0.75mi
18772 Grand Live Oak BLVD HOWEY IN HLS, FL 1.0–3.0 1.0–3.0 1076 $2,682 $2.49 7d 148 0.76mi
18588 Hunters Meadow Walk Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.0 1753 $2,220 $1.27 7d 1 0.77mi
10567 Heron Hideaway Loop Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.0 1532 $2,050 $1.34 61d 1 0.83mi
17761 Pleasantview Blvd Land O' Lakes, FL 4.0 2.5 1870 $2,600 $1.39 69d 1 0.87mi
9896 Dancing Goat Pl Land O' Lakes, FL 3.0 2.0 1486 $2,175 $1.46 73d 1 0.87mi
9864 Dancing Goat Pl Land O' Lakes, FL 3.0 2.0 1486 $2,150 $1.45 18d 1 0.89mi
17657 Nectar Flume Dr Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1634 $1,800 $1.10 7d 1 0.91mi
17608 Nectar Flume Dr Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1634 $2,100 $1.29 73d 1 0.91mi
10124 Coldwater Loop Land O Lakes, FL 4.0 2.0 1888 $2,555 $1.35 7d 1 0.92mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
UnfurnishedNo lease restrictions indicatedDirections available to community
Financial info
Other annual assessment: $1,907Taxes listed (2025): $6,024
HOA & community
HOA managed by Inframark/Chrissie BrownMonthly HOA fee approximately $125.33 (quarterly association fee listed as $376)HOA includes pool, structure maintenance, and grounds maintenanceCommunity amenities: clubhouse, pool, dog park, playground, sidewalks, street lights, community mailboxPets allowed with breed restrictionsCDD present

Exterior

Parking
Attached 2-car garage
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedCable connectedBroadband/High-speed internet availableUnderground utilities
Home design
Residential villaSingle-storyFaces northwest
Construction
Stucco exteriorShingle roofBlock foundationBuilt with approximately 1,532 sq ft living area
Exterior features
Covered patioScreened patioPond viewPaved road accessLot approximately 0.1 acre (0 to less than 1/4 acre)

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRefrigeratorStone countersSolid wood cabinets
Bedrooms
3 bedrooms
Flooring
Carpet
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features
High ceilingsOpen floorplan with kitchen/family room comboLiving room/dining room comboSplit bedroom layoutSolid wood cabinetsStone countertopsWalk-in closet(s)
Laundry & utility
Dedicated laundry roomWasherDryerElectric water heater

HOA detail $125/mo · $1,500/yr

Likely covers
water

Listing history 8 events

  1. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 75 DOM
  2. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 74 DOM
  3. 2026-05-14
    listed $2,100
  4. 2026-04-15
    price $289,000
  5. 2026-03-30
    price $295,000
  6. 2026-03-18
    listed $305,000 Active
  7. 2022-03-28
    soldstatus $299,665
  8. 2022-03-28
    listed $299,665

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$6,024 · $502/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$6,024 · $502/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
  • 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$28,562
− Mortgage interest
−$16,188
− Property taxes
−$6,024
− Insurance
−$1,445
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,285
− Management
−$2,285
− HOA
−$1,500
− Depreciation
−$8,407
Taxable loss
−$9,573
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$2,298
After-tax cash flow
$-2,295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,660–$22,980 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It is move-in ready and offers a good ROI with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more buyers
  • Both Interior updates (paint, minor repairs) — Fresh paint and minor repairs can improve the home's appearance and attract more buyers

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 57/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Connerton Elementary School C- FL #976/2,144 Nat'l #11,114/41,679 Middle Pine View Middle School B FL #157/571 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Land O' Lakes High School C+ FL #106/667 Nat'l #3,545/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Pasco
NCES district ID
1201530
Math proficiency
50% ▼ -10.00%
Reading proficiency
52% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income
$45,039
Composite
43.14/100
National rank
#3074
State rank
#32 of 73 in FL
C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Connerton

Score
66/100
State rank
#596
US rank
#11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Pasco County · 570,045 people
City population
11,398
Metro
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
Population (ZIP)
37,644
Household income
$123,899
Rent vs Own
16.4% rent · 83.6% own
Severe rent burden
11% of renters

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
570,045 people
By 2030
605,844 · +6.3%
By 2040
674,806 · +18.4%
By 2050
736,022 · +29.1%
By 2075
862,900 · +51.4%
By 2100
906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
Race & ethnicity
White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 16% Black 6% Asian 4%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
Foreign-born
17% · Canada, Jamaica
Languages at home
76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

2024 margin
Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
2008→2024 swing
-21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
All cycles
2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-99.3% since first listed
6 events — show timeline
  • 2026-05-14 Listed for Rent $2,100 STELLARMLS
  • 2026-04-15 Price Changed $289,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-03-30 Price Changed $295,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-03-18 Listed $305,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2022-03-28 Listed $299,665 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2022-03-28 Sold (MLS) $299,665 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+27.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,024 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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