1665 Hopson Ranch Dr · Conroe, TX 77301

$289,190

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,067 sqft · SingleFamily · 36 Days on market

Built 2026 $140/sqft · 10% below area Est $322k · 10% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand new, energy-efficient home available by May 2026! Debate what to wear in the Preston's impressive walk-in closet located just off the primary suite bath. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and aloe backsplash, brown tone EVP flooring with multi-tone carpet. From the low $300s. Located off SH-336 in Conroe with premier access to I-45, Stewart’s Ranch makes it easy to work and play. Let the kids run at the future playground and pavilion or explore the nearby 201- acre Carl Barton Jr. park. We also build each home with innovative, energy-efficient features that cut down on utility bills so you can afford to do more living. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 36 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-339 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (17.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 486 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $215,359 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.03%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $322,327
• List price: $289,190
• Delta: -10.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1665 Hopson Ranch Dr	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,067 (0%)	0mo	$289,190	$140	100
1649 Hopson Ranch Dr	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,067 (0%)	3mo	$303,440	$147	96
1657 Hopson Ranch Dr	0.02mi	4/3.0	2,267 (+10%)	1mo	$289,590	$128	82
1637 Hopson Ranch Dr	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,267 (+10%)	1mo	$299,440	$132	80
1645 Hopson Ranch Dr	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,316 (+12%)	0mo	$336,990	$146	77
1625 Hopson Ranch Dr	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,316 (+12%)	2mo	$316,590	$137	74
1610 Hopson Ranch Dr	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,316 (+12%)	3mo	$319,590	$138	72
1614 Hopson Ranch Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,831 (-11%)	3mo	$274,990	$150	64
2035 Borthwick Ln	0.66mi	4/2.0	2,190 (+6%)	0mo	$315,000	$144	55
2005 Borthwick Ln	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,190 (+6%)	1mo	$299,900	$137	53
2001 Lulach Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,885 (-9%)	1mo	$307,000	$163	49
1807 Chanty Way	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,260 (+9%)	2mo	$280,000	$124	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-71,756
• Equity at exit: $43,119

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-103,383
• Equity at exit: $25,004

Cash invested: $80,973 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77301

• Home prices YoY: -8.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 486
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,154 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,517
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$361 /mo · $4,338/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-339

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,583

Max offer price $240,109

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,298
• Closing costs: $8,676
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
493 Monticello Park Conroe, TX	5.0	3.5	2921	$3,400	$1.16	24d	1	1.13mi
200 Montrose Cir Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1679	$1,485	$0.88	12d	1	1.20mi
816 Lightningbug Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1532	$1,724	$1.13	21d	1	1.20mi
1710 Leafhopper Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1732	$1,830	$1.06	24d	1	1.29mi
805 Belvedere Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,624	$1.03	21d	1	1.34mi
915 Longleaf Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1767	$1,975	$1.12	44d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 807-char remark

   Show marketing remark (807 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by May 2026! Debate what to wear in the Preston's impressive walk-in closet located just off the primary suite bath. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and aloe backsplash, brown tone EVP flooring with multi-tone carpet. From the low $300s. Located off SH-336 in Conroe with premier access to I-45, Stewart’s Ranch makes it easy to work and play. Let the kids run at the future playground and pavilion or explore the nearby 201- acre Carl Barton Jr. park. We also build each home with innovative, energy-efficient features that cut down on utility bills so you can afford to do more living. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

2. 2026-05-08
   price $289,190 807-char remark

   Show marketing remark (807 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by May 2026! Debate what to wear in the Preston's impressive walk-in closet located just off the primary suite bath. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and aloe backsplash, brown tone EVP flooring with multi-tone carpet. From the low $300s. Located off SH-336 in Conroe with premier access to I-45, Stewart’s Ranch makes it easy to work and play. Let the kids run at the future playground and pavilion or explore the nearby 201- acre Carl Barton Jr. park. We also build each home with innovative, energy-efficient features that cut down on utility bills so you can afford to do more living. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

3. 2026-05-01
   price $299,190 807-char remark

   Show marketing remark (807 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by May 2026! Debate what to wear in the Preston's impressive walk-in closet located just off the primary suite bath. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and aloe backsplash, brown tone EVP flooring with multi-tone carpet. From the low $300s. Located off SH-336 in Conroe with premier access to I-45, Stewart’s Ranch makes it easy to work and play. Let the kids run at the future playground and pavilion or explore the nearby 201- acre Carl Barton Jr. park. We also build each home with innovative, energy-efficient features that cut down on utility bills so you can afford to do more living. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

4. 2026-04-15
   price $294,190 807-char remark

   Show marketing remark (807 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by May 2026! Debate what to wear in the Preston's impressive walk-in closet located just off the primary suite bath. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and aloe backsplash, brown tone EVP flooring with multi-tone carpet. From the low $300s. Located off SH-336 in Conroe with premier access to I-45, Stewart’s Ranch makes it easy to work and play. Let the kids run at the future playground and pavilion or explore the nearby 201- acre Carl Barton Jr. park. We also build each home with innovative, energy-efficient features that cut down on utility bills so you can afford to do more living. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

5. 2026-04-06
   listed $332,190 Active 807-char remark

   Show marketing remark (807 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by May 2026! Debate what to wear in the Preston's impressive walk-in closet located just off the primary suite bath. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and aloe backsplash, brown tone EVP flooring with multi-tone carpet. From the low $300s. Located off SH-336 in Conroe with premier access to I-45, Stewart’s Ranch makes it easy to work and play. Let the kids run at the future playground and pavilion or explore the nearby 201- acre Carl Barton Jr. park. We also build each home with innovative, energy-efficient features that cut down on utility bills so you can afford to do more living. Each of our homes is built with innovative, energy-efficient features designed to help you enjoy more savings, better health, real comfort and peace of mind.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,843
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,199
• − Property taxes: −$4,338
• − Insurance: −$1,446
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,067
• − Management: −$2,067
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$8,413
• Taxable loss: −$9,192
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,206
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,769
• Household income: $66,475
• Rent vs Own: 45.0% rent · 55.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1256.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 31% Two or more races 19% Black 13% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 45% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.51%
• Current HPI: 278.6662
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $289,190 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $299,190 HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $294,190 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $332,190 HARMLS