147 Hillcrest Rdg · Montezuma, IA 50171

$399,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 888 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 328 Days on market

Built 1990 0.43 ac lot $449/sqft · 27% below area Est $549k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.2/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

147 Hillcrest Ridge offered for sale. This one level ranch home offers 2 beds, 1 bath, new mini split system to heat and cool, new metal roof, all new paint job throughout interior. The front slab is poured with frost footings to accommodate a new addition or sunroom. This home has a beautiful large yard and a fantastic access with a new dock and boat lift. This is a turn key property. Call for a showing!

Key facts

• New dock
• New metal roof
• New paint job

Tags

• NEW MINI SPLIT SYSTEM
• NEW METAL ROOF
• NEW PAINT JOB
• FRONT SLAB POURED
• LARGE YARD
• NEW DOCK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-22k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $82k (79.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $86k (78.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $82k (79.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 0.9% vs local median 1.5% in Montezuma — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#228 in IA, #4,319 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Montezuma Community School District (rural): math 73% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #55 of 289 in IA (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Poweshiek County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Poweshiek County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 328 days — a 12% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $270k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $81,960 (79.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 328 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 79% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.22% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -19.28%
• DSCR: 0.14
• GRM: 38.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $549,220
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: -27.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
110 Scenic Dr	0.39mi	3/1.5 (+1)	956 (+8%)	10mo	$542,000	$567	54
292 Hillcrest Rdg	0.39mi	2/1.0	960 (+8%)	24mo	$519,000	$541	48
234 Hillcrest Rdg	0.23mi	2/1.0	768 (-14%)	24mo	$365,000	$475	47
254 Eastside Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+8%)	2mo	$742,500	$773	45
161 Cottage Ln	0.32mi	2/2.0	780 (-12%)	21mo	$537,000	$688	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $102,840
• Equity at exit: $359,451

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.51×
• Total profit: $392,415
• Equity at exit: $775,169

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50171

• Home prices YoY: 9.3%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 38.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $860 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$216 /mo · $2,586/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $-1,795

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,132

Max offer price $81,960

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 328 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 327 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 326 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 325 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 323 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $399,000 Active 322 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 319 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,000 Active 318 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,000 Active 317 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $399,000 Active 315 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,000 Active 313 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 312 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 311 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 310 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 309 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $399,000 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    147 Hillcrest Ridge offered for sale. This one level ranch home offers 2 beds, 1 bath, new mini split system to heat and cool, new metal roof, all new paint job throughout interior. The front slab is poured with frost footings to accommodate a new addition or sunroom. This home has a beautiful large yard and a fantastic access with a new dock and boat lift. This is a turn key property. Call for a showing!

17. 2026-02-19
    price $429,000 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    147 Hillcrest Ridge offered for sale. This one level ranch home offers 2 beds, 1 bath, new mini split system to heat and cool, new metal roof, all new paint job throughout interior. The front slab is poured with frost footings to accommodate a new addition or sunroom. This home has a beautiful large yard and a fantastic access with a new dock and boat lift. This is a turn key property. Call for a showing!

18. 2025-07-24
    listed $449,000 Active 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (408 chars)

    147 Hillcrest Ridge offered for sale. This one level ranch home offers 2 beds, 1 bath, new mini split system to heat and cool, new metal roof, all new paint job throughout interior. The front slab is poured with frost footings to accommodate a new addition or sunroom. This home has a beautiful large yard and a fantastic access with a new dock and boat lift. This is a turn key property. Call for a showing!

19. 2022-05-02
    soldstatus $270,000 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    147 Hillcrest Ridge is offered for sale at Lake Ponderosa. Wide open space and beautiful views are a few of the amenities offered with this quality stick built home. The slab home offers 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom with laundry hook ups, a nice kitchen, dining and living area all open. This property offers so many possibilities for additions as well as a newer septic, a double access just down the road with a newer dock and a power boat lift. You won't want to miss how nice this access is. Call for a tour.

20. 2022-05-02
    soldstatus $270,000

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    147 Hillcrest Ridge is offered for sale at Lake Ponderosa. Wide open space and beautiful views are a few of the amenities offered with this quality stick built home. The slab home offers 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom with laundry hook ups, a nice kitchen, dining and living area all open. This property offers so many possibilities for additions as well as a newer septic, a double access just down the road with a newer dock and a power boat lift. You won't want to miss how nice this access is. Call for a tour.

21. 2021-09-17
    listed $292,000 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    147 Hillcrest Ridge is offered for sale at Lake Ponderosa. Wide open space and beautiful views are a few of the amenities offered with this quality stick built home. The slab home offers 2 bedrooms and 1 full bathroom with laundry hook ups, a nice kitchen, dining and living area all open. This property offers so many possibilities for additions as well as a newer septic, a double access just down the road with a newer dock and a power boat lift. You won't want to miss how nice this access is. Call for a tour.

22. 2016-06-28
    soldstatus $182,000
23. 2016-06-27
    soldstatus $182,000
24. 2016-03-17
    listed $192,000
25. 2008-04-07
    soldstatus $144,750
26. 2007-11-05
    listed $154,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,586 · $216/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,425 · $369/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,839/yr (+$153/mo · 71.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,321
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$2,586
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$826
• − Management: −$826
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$29,869
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,169
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montezuma Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1919590
• Math proficiency: 73% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $57,449
• Composite: 65.04/100
• National rank: #503
• State rank: #55 of 289 in IA

Livability — Montezuma

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #228
• US rank: #4319

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,445
• Population (ZIP): 2,445

Population outlook (Poweshiek County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,601 people
• By 2030: 18,342 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 17,944 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 18,029 · -3.1%
• By 2075: 19,945 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 22,637 · +21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Portuguese 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Poweshiek

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 40.8% · R 57.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: 11.8pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+13.3 2016: R+6.8 2012: D+9.1 2008: D+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 30.91%
• Current HPI: 364.6554
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+157.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $399,000 IAR
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $429,000 IAR
• 2025-07-24 Listed $449,000 IAR
• 2022-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-02 Sold (MLS) $270,000 IAR
• 2021-09-17 Listed $292,000 IAR
• 2016-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $182,000 Public Records
• 2016-06-27 Sold (MLS) $182,000 IAR
• 2016-03-17 Listed $192,000 IAR
• 2008-04-07 Sold (MLS) $144,750 DMMLS
• 2007-11-05 Listed $154,900 DMMLS

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,586 · -3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.