11553 Cinnamon Rose · San Antonio, TX 78109

$164,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,380 sqft · SingleFamily · 67 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot $120/sqft · 18% below area Est $201k · 18% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Avas - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• TWO SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1208 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $155,099 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.62%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,110
• List price: $164,999
• Delta: -17.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11553 Cinnamon Rose	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,380 (0%)	1mo	$164,999	$120	99
11533 Cinnamon Rose	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-2%)	2mo	$196,999	$145	94
11513 Cinnamon Rose	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-2%)	2mo	$198,999	$147	92
11516 Chestnut Rose	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-2%)	7mo	$225,999	$167	89
11525 Cinnamon Rose	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,483 (+8%)	2mo	$208,999	$141	79
11545 Cinnamon Rose	0.01mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+9%)	2mo	$169,999	$113	78
11557 Cinnamon Rose	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-13%)	2mo	$160,999	$134	76
11521 Cinnamon Rose	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-13%)	2mo	$156,999	$131	74
11537 Chestnut Rose	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+9%)	5mo	$185,499	$124	74
11210 Prairie Lndg	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,527 (+11%)	2mo	$219,990	$144	49
11206 Prairie Lndg	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,218 (-12%)	6mo	$194,990	$160	41
11119 Prairie Lndg	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,206 (-13%)	5mo	$214,990	$178	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-18,023
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-17,535
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78109

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1208
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,744 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,470

Max offer price $164,999

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $330	-5% $273	+0% $216	+5% $159	+10% $102
Rent	-10% $79	-5% $148	+0% $216	+5% $285	+10% $354
Rate	-1.0pp $300	-0.5pp $258	base $216	+0.5pp $174	+1.0pp $130

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11602 Dog Rose Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,650	$1.22	24d	1	0.15mi
4611 E 1604 N Converse, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1112	$1,229	$1.11	2d	1	0.71mi
11151 Hollinger Cir Converse, TX	4.0	2.5	1859	$1,705	$0.92	24d	1	0.83mi
11130 Hollinger Cir Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1709	$1,950	$1.14	22d	1	0.84mi
11130 Hollinger Cir Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1689	$1,950	$1.15	3d	1	0.84mi
3106 Drayton Ests Converse, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1733	$2,102	$1.21	2d	1	0.90mi
11046 Eyelet Hbr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,750	$1.15	24d	1	0.91mi
2822 Praline Fry Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,645	$1.08	3d	1	0.92mi
11030 Yonder Flts Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,500	$1.05	5d	1	0.97mi
11026 Yonder Flts Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,645	$1.08	4d	1	0.98mi
11019 Chatham Ct Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,425	$1.00	44d	1	0.98mi
10922 Chatham Ct Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,645	$1.08	24d	1	1.06mi
2939 Gastonian Ml Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,495	$0.98	44d	1	1.08mi
2815 Armaan WAY Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1401	$1,495	$1.07	2d	1	1.20mi
3130 Jackson Smt Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1428	$1,885	$1.32	5d	1	1.28mi
3055 Jackson Smt Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,595	$1.05	44d	1	1.29mi
3318 Carducci Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,800	$1.41	44d	1	1.29mi
10803 Prusiner Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,410	$0.97	24d	1	1.34mi
10803 Prusiner Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,476	$1.02	22d	1	1.34mi
10690 Pablo Way Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,650	$1.37	44d	1	1.36mi
2802 Stigler Dr Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,495	$0.92	5d	1	1.38mi
2906 Millikan Dr Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,525	$0.94	13d	1	1.42mi
2822 Millikan Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,500	$1.03	13d	1	1.42mi
2822 Millikan Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	24d	1	1.42mi
10755 Prusiner Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,536	$1.21	22d	1	1.43mi
10754 Prusiner Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,450	$1.15	24d	1	1.43mi
4150 Admirals Bnd Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1602	$1,750	$1.09	5d	1	1.43mi
10723 Vinateros Dr Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,776	$1.07	44d	1	1.46mi
1411 Capitol Reef Adkins, TX	4.0	2.0	1566	$1,795	$1.15	3d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   The Avas - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

2. 2026-04-29
   price $164,999 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   The Avas - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

3. 2026-04-28
   price $184,999 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   The Avas - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

4. 2026-04-27
   status Back on Market 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   The Avas - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

5. 2026-03-24
   status Pending 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   The Avas - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

6. 2026-03-18
   price $169,999 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   The Avas - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

7. 2026-02-11
   price $184,999 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   The Avas - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

8. 2026-02-04
   listed $189,999 New 524-char remark

   Show marketing remark (524 chars)

   The Avas - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home. Estimated Completion May 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,927
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,674
• − Management: −$1,674
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$15
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4
• After-tax cash flow: $2,601/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan with modern finishes and a good condition. It is ready for move-in and can be enhanced with minor exterior and interior updates to boost its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Replace the front door — A new front door can improve the home's curb appeal and security.
• Rental Clean the windows — Clean windows can make the home more attractive to potential renters and improve natural light.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Replace the front door — A new front door can improve the home's curb appeal and security. ↑
• Rental Clean the windows — Clean windows can make the home more attractive to potential renters and improve natural light. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 63,067
• Household income: $91,320
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1732.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 27% Two or more races 21% Black 21% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.02%
• Current HPI: 236.4923
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — LERA
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $164,999 LERA
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $184,999 LERA
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-03-24 Pending — LERA
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $169,999 LERA
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $184,999 LERA
• 2026-02-04 Listed $189,999 LERA