1356 Berry Ln · Davenport, FL 33837

$295,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,522 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 175 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 4,600 sqft lot 2-car garage $117/sqft · 16% below area Est $352k · 16% under $56/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale. SHORT SALE. Set in Horse Creek at Crosswinds community, this 2023-built 5 BEDROOM, 3.5 BATH home on Berry Lane offers the SPACE, FLEXIBILITY, and VALE many buyers look for in a first move-up or second home, with the rare bonus of a MOTHER-IN-LAW STYLE SUITE on the main level and major systems already updated. From the foyer, the home opens into a generous, NATURALLY BRIGHT living and dining area that runs the width of the house, creating an easy flow around the LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND where everyday life, homework, and entertaining naturally come together.

Key facts

• 4,600 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $295k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (13.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (8.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.1% in Davenport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#423 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bethune Academy (math 46% / reading 56%, grade C-, #1,043 of 2,144 statewide, top 49%, 428 students, 60% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 2025 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $254,063 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.37%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,495
• List price: $295,000
• Delta: -16.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1601 Swan Swim Dr	0.07mi	5/2.5	2,020 (-20%)	1mo	$330,000	$163	69
406 North Blvd E	0.21mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,956 (+17%)	1mo	$390,000	$132	58
554 Jett Ln	0.48mi	5/2.5	2,254 (-11%)	1mo	$345,000	$153	57
717 Fiddlesticks Dr	0.89mi	5/3.5	2,621 (+4%)	1mo	$370,000	$141	56
146 Glenfield Dr	1.08mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,366 (-6%)	1mo	$398,053	$168	48
143 Glenfield Dr	1.07mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,366 (-6%)	2mo	$408,990	$173	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-70,213
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-109,666
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 29 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 34.8 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $378,000 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 62 d
• This list price: 10% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -17.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33837

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 2025
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,692 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$632 /mo · $7,585/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$56
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $-232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,985

Max offer price $254,063

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-65	-5% $-148	+0% $-232	+5% $-315	+10% $-399
Rent	-10% $-444	-5% $-338	+0% $-232	+5% $-125	+10% $-19
Rate	-1.0pp $-83	-0.5pp $-157	base $-232	+0.5pp $-308	+1.0pp $-386

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1387 Berry Ln Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	2522	$2,500	$0.99	110d	1	0.07mi
1444 Berry Ln Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	2522	$2,400	$0.95	9d	1	0.18mi
2007 Handsome Hill Ln Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	2287	$2,250	$0.98	65d	1	0.18mi
1673 Swan Swim Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	2.5	2287	$2,295	$1.00	9d	1	0.19mi
2302 Friendly Confines Loop Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1807	$3,100	$1.72	7d	1	0.29mi
906 Sofia Ln Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	2183	$2,600	$1.19	85d	1	0.33mi
2358 Friendly Confines Loop Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1911	$2,500	$1.31	9d	1	0.34mi
763 Chinoy Rd Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	2446	$2,400	$0.98	63d	1	0.46mi
570 Jett Ln Davenport, FL	6.0	3.0	2614	$3,100	$1.19	93d	1	0.48mi
225 Gina Ln Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	2522	$2,290	$0.91	4d	1	0.61mi
440 Tisone Ln Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	2102	$2,600	$1.24	9d	1	0.89mi
900 Avenal Ln Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1900	$1,851	$0.97	4d	1	0.90mi
888 Avenal Ln Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	2103	$2,286	$1.09	4d	1	0.91mi
2085 Doe Run Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	2696	$3,400	$1.26	73d	1	1.06mi
2339 White Tail St Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	2343	$2,290	$0.98	9d	1	1.15mi
2622 Irish Elk Ave Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,200	$1.20	119d	1	1.30mi
2401 White Tail St Davenport, FL	4.0	2.5	2340	$2,250	$0.96	6d	1	1.34mi
1258 Merrimack Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	2232	$1,900	$0.85	9d	1	1.34mi
181 Silver Maple Bnd Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	2232	$2,100	$0.94	78d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions applyUnfurnishedLiving area and building area reported from public records
• Financial info: Monthly HOA approximately $56.92 (quarterly billing shown)Other annual assessment reported
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Prime Community Management) — quarterly association fee; fee includes pool; pets allowed (cats and dogs)Deed restrictionsCommunity pool and playgroundSidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway2-car garage with garage door openerAttached garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerCable availableBroadband/high-speed internet availableElectricity connectedWater connectedSewer connectedSolar energy present
• Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyTwo-story homeNorth-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt using materials common to modern construction
• Exterior features: PatioFire pitExterior lightingSidewalkSliding doorsVinyl fencingIrrigation equipmentCleared, level lot inside city limits with paved asphalt streets and public maintenance

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherMicrowaveRangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fansEat-in kitchenKitchen/family room comboLiving room/dining room comboSplit bedroom layoutThermostatWalk-in closetsBlinds
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $295,000 Active 175 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $295,000 Active 174 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $295,000 Active 173 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $295,000 Active 171 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $295,000 Active 170 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 169 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 168 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $295,000 Active 167 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 166 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $295,000 Active 165 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $295,000 Active 164 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $295,000 Active 163 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $295,000 Active 162 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $300,000 Active 156 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $300,000 Active 155 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $300,000 Active 154 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 151 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $300,000 Active 150 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $300,000 Active 149 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $300,000 Active 148 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $300,000 Active 147 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $300,000 Active 146 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $300,000 Active 145 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $300,000 Active 144 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $300,000 Active 143 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $300,000 Active 142 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $300,000 Active 141 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $300,000 Active 140 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $300,000 Active 139 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $300,000 Active 138 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $300,000 Active 137 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $300,000 Active 136 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $300,000 Active 135 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $300,000 Active 134 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $300,000 Active 133 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $300,000 Active 132 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $300,000 Active 131 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $300,000 Active 130 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $300,000 Active 129 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $300,000 Active 128 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $300,000 Active 127 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $300,000 Active 126 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $300,000 Active 125 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $300,000 Active 124 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $300,000 Active 123 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 120 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $300,000 Active 119 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $300,000 Active 118 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $300,000 Active 117 DOM
50. 2026-07-26
    days on market $300,000 Active 115 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,585 · $632/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,585 · $632/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$7,585
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,584
• − Management: −$2,584
• − HOA: −$672
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$7,708
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,850
• After-tax cash flow: $-931/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,610–$37,830 screening

This 2023-built home in Horse Creek at Crosswinds community is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed. It offers ample space and flexibility, making it a great move-up or second home.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior walls — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale landscape front yard — improves curb appeal ↑
• Both install new flooring in living areas — increases both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bethune Academy C- FL #1,043/2,144 Nat'l #12,255/41,679 Middle Shelley S. Boone Middle School F FL #517/571 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Ridge Community High School F FL #539/667 Nat'l #13,583/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Davenport

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #423
• US rank: #7541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Davenport, FL
• County: Polk County · 752,975 people
• City population: 104,279
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,389
• Household income: $81,276
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% White 36% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 22% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.62%
• Current HPI: 256.8165
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.73%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions applyUnfurnishedLiving area and building area reported from public records
• Financial info: Monthly HOA approximately $56.92 (quarterly billing shown)Other annual assessment reported
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Prime Community Management) — quarterly association fee; fee includes pool; pets allowed (cats and dogs)Deed restrictionsCommunity pool and playgroundSidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway2-car garage with garage door openerAttached garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerCable availableBroadband/high-speed internet availableElectricity connectedWater connectedSewer connectedSolar energy present
• Home design: Single family residenceResidential propertyTwo-story homeNorth-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt using materials common to modern construction
• Exterior features: PatioFire pitExterior lightingSidewalkSliding doorsVinyl fencingIrrigation equipmentCleared, level lot inside city limits with paved asphalt streets and public maintenance

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherMicrowaveRangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fansEat-in kitchenKitchen/family room comboLiving room/dining room comboSplit bedroom layoutThermostatWalk-in closetsBlinds
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

Price history

-23.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $319,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $324,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Listed $329,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-11 Price Changed $390,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Listed $410,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+34.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,585 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.