95 Columbus Ave · Buffalo, NY 14220

$198,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,274 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1930 3,885 sqft lot Est $233k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 95 Columbus Avenue, a charming residence nestled in the vibrant heart of South Buffalo. This residence sits on a tranquil one-way street just off McKinley Parkway, providing easy access to local parks like Cazenovia Park and Tift Nature Preserve. You’ll also appreciate the proximity to Route 5 and South Buffalo Mercy Hospital. Step inside to find a bright and airy living room that seamlessly connects to a formal dining room, perfect for hosting guests for a meal. Upstairs, you’ll find three well-proportioned & generous-sized bedrooms and a full bathroom. The basement offers additional living space with another full bathroom and a bar area—ideal for enterta

Key facts

• Hot water tank
• Sump pump
• Updated a/c system

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• NEW ELECTRICAL SERVICE
• SUMP PUMP
• HOT WATER TANK
• UPDATED A/C SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-10/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (25.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.6%/yr); 136 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $147,922 (25.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $233,142
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
53 Richfield Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-10%)	4mo	$275,000	$239	74
417 Abbott Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+6%)	4mo	$223,000	$165	73
105 Sheffield Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,216 (-5%)	0mo	$215,000	$177	72
32 Lorraine Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,365 (+7%)	3mo	$235,000	$172	71
66 Woodside Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,364 (+7%)	3mo	$250,000	$183	69
39 Crystal Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,248 (-2%)	0mo	$212,000	$170	66
112 Hubbell Ave	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,161 (-9%)	4mo	$205,000	$177	66
93 Salem St	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,184 (-7%)	1mo	$235,000	$198	62
66 Choate Ave	0.21mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,449 (+14%)	2mo	$245,066	$169	59
29 Garvey Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,183 (-7%)	4mo	$225,000	$190	54
120 Pries Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,138 (-11%)	3mo	$220,000	$193	54
45 Tuscarora Rd	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,387 (+9%)	5mo	$273,000	$197	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-25,210
• Equity at exit: $29,671

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $10,044
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14220

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,479 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $516/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,480

Max offer price $198,845

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $112	-5% $55	+0% $-1	+5% $-57	+10% $-114
Rent	-10% $-118	-5% $-59	+0% $-1	+5% $58	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $99	-0.5pp $50	base $-1	+0.5pp $-52	+1.0pp $-105

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
86 Edgewood Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1700	$1,700	$1.00	2d	1	0.21mi
74 Woodside Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,510	$1.21	2d	1	0.40mi
298 Cumberland Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1208	$2,200	$1.82	2d	1	0.42mi
89 Macamley St #2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1274	$1,100	$0.86	11d	1	0.49mi
214 Abbott Rd Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	945	$1,200	$1.27	15d	1	0.51mi
2111 Seneca St #3 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	937	$1,150	$1.23	44d	1	0.71mi
76 Hammerschmidt Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,275	$1.06	3d	1	0.77mi
1927 Seneca St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1196	$1,250	$1.05	24d	1	0.78mi
1899 Seneca St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,075	$0.95	15d	1	0.81mi
34 Hayden St Unit Back Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	44d	1	0.83mi
700 Hopkins St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,225	$1.11	15d	1	0.88mi
23 Indian Orchard Pl Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	44d	1	0.97mi
102 Wildwood Pl Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	17d	1	1.04mi
40 Vincent Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1075	$875	$0.81	24d	1	1.18mi
46 Kirkwood Dr Unit Lower West Seneca, NY	2.0	1.0	1064	$1,350	$1.27	17d	1	1.23mi
78 Kirkwood Dr Unit Lower Unit West Seneca, NY	2.0	1.0	1808	$1,375	$0.76	3d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2025-10-02
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-23
   price $198,999
3. 2025-09-17
   price $199,999
4. 2025-08-05
   listed $239,999 Active
5. 2025-07-31
   historical
6. 2025-07-17
   price $239,899
7. 2025-06-24
   status Active
8. 2025-06-24
   price $239,900
9. 2024-10-16
   listed $219,900 Active
10. 2023-08-07
    price $250,000
11. 2023-08-07
    historical
12. 2023-07-26
    listed $240,000 Active
13. 2019-10-25
    soldstatus $175,000 Closed Sale or Rented
14. 2019-10-25
    soldstatus $175,000
15. 2019-08-15
    status Pending Sale
16. 2019-08-07
    price $159,999
17. 2019-08-06
    price $159,000
18. 2019-08-05
    listed $149,999 Active
19. 2005-12-19
    soldstatus $50,001

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $516 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,939 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,424/yr (+$119/mo · 276.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,751
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$516
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,420
• − Management: −$1,420
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,536
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$849
• After-tax cash flow: $838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,428
• Household income: $70,963
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 1% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.29%
• Current HPI: 402.5053
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.62%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+298.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-02 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $198,999 WNYREIS
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $199,999 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-05 Listed $239,999 WNYREIS
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $239,899 WNYREIS
• 2025-06-24 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $239,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-10-16 Listed $219,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-08-07 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2023-08-07 Price Changed $250,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-07-26 Listed $240,000 WNYREIS
• 2019-10-25 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2019-10-25 Sold (MLS) $175,000 WNYREIS
• 2019-08-15 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-08-07 Price Changed $159,999 WNYREIS
• 2019-08-06 Price Changed $159,000 WNYREIS
• 2019-08-05 Listed $149,999 WNYREIS
• 2005-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $50,001 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $516 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.