31602 Heguy Pass · Fulshear, TX 77441

$249,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,628 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 2019 Fair condition 10,685 sqft lot $154/sqft · 12% below area Est $283k · 12% under $73/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICED TO MOVE!!! 1-story home features front porch entry, 3-sided brick exterior, large covered back patio, with 4 bedrooms and 2 baths. Double sink in primary, and a tiled walk-in shower. Take note of the many features and finishes including offset tile flooring in all main living areas, granite countertops in the kitchen and bathrooms, sprinkler system in front and back, oversized lot, NO back neighbors. Investors welcome to check out this opportunity as well. Take a look and call this yours today!

Key facts

• Tiled walk-in shower
• Front porch entry
• Offset tile flooring

Tags

• FRONT PORCH ENTRY
• 3-SIDED BRICK EXTERIOR
• LARGE COVERED BACK PATIO
• DOUBLE SINK IN PRIMARY
• TILED WALK-IN SHOWER
• OFFSET TILE FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-519/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (3.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $235k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.1% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1242 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($184k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,999 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.74%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $283,274
• List price: $249,999
• Delta: -11.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8511 Balding Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,549 (-5%)	0mo	$255,000	$165	76
31723 Wild Meadow Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-2%)	1mo	$345,990	$216	76
31739 Wild Meadow Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-2%)	2mo	$348,990	$218	75
32519 Summer Vista Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (+3%)	3mo	$308,990	$185	73
32511 Summer Vista Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (-5%)	4mo	$303,990	$196	68
31402 Conover Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,645 (+1%)	7mo	$295,000	$179	65
31711 Wild Meadow Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+10%)	1mo	$356,990	$199	63
8407 Balding Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,425 (-12%)	7mo	$265,000	$186	62
31726 Wild Meadow Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+10%)	2mo	$352,990	$197	62
31303 Whitfield Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,557 (-4%)	5mo	$267,000	$171	60
31319 Palomino Ranch Path	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,602 (-2%)	8mo	$289,000	$180	56
31415 Horseshoe Meadow Bend Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-14%)	5mo	$264,900	$189	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-50,911
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-77,361
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1242
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,720 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$704 /mo · $8,448/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$73
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,775

Max offer price $242,357

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $98	-5% $27	+0% $-43	+5% $-114	+10% $-185
Rent	-10% $-258	-5% $-151	+0% $-43	+5% $64	+10% $172
Rate	-1.0pp $83	-0.5pp $20	base $-43	+0.5pp $-108	+1.0pp $-174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31419 Horseshoe Meadow Bend Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,100	$1.32	44d	1	0.57mi
693 Canvas Ave Fulshear, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1199	$2,625	$2.19	0d	36	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $73 · $876/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,999 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,999 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,999 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,999 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,999 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $249,999 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $260,000 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $260,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $260,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $264,999 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $264,999 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,999 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,999 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $264,999 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $269,999 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    PRICED TO MOVE!!! 1-story home features front porch entry, 3-sided brick exterior, large covered back patio, with 4 bedrooms and 2 baths. Double sink in primary, and a tiled walk-in shower. Take note of the many features and finishes including offset tile flooring in all main living areas, granite countertops in the kitchen and bathrooms, sprinkler system in front and back, oversized lot, NO back neighbors. Investors welcome to check out this opportunity as well. Take a look and call this yours today!

16. 2026-05-01
    price $274,999 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    PRICED TO MOVE!!! 1-story home features front porch entry, 3-sided brick exterior, large covered back patio, with 4 bedrooms and 2 baths. Double sink in primary, and a tiled walk-in shower. Take note of the many features and finishes including offset tile flooring in all main living areas, granite countertops in the kitchen and bathrooms, sprinkler system in front and back, oversized lot, NO back neighbors. Investors welcome to check out this opportunity as well. Take a look and call this yours today!

17. 2026-04-20
    price $285,000 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    PRICED TO MOVE!!! 1-story home features front porch entry, 3-sided brick exterior, large covered back patio, with 4 bedrooms and 2 baths. Double sink in primary, and a tiled walk-in shower. Take note of the many features and finishes including offset tile flooring in all main living areas, granite countertops in the kitchen and bathrooms, sprinkler system in front and back, oversized lot, NO back neighbors. Investors welcome to check out this opportunity as well. Take a look and call this yours today!

18. 2026-04-12
    price $289,900 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    PRICED TO MOVE!!! 1-story home features front porch entry, 3-sided brick exterior, large covered back patio, with 4 bedrooms and 2 baths. Double sink in primary, and a tiled walk-in shower. Take note of the many features and finishes including offset tile flooring in all main living areas, granite countertops in the kitchen and bathrooms, sprinkler system in front and back, oversized lot, NO back neighbors. Investors welcome to check out this opportunity as well. Take a look and call this yours today!

19. 2026-03-31
    listed $295,000 Active 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    PRICED TO MOVE!!! 1-story home features front porch entry, 3-sided brick exterior, large covered back patio, with 4 bedrooms and 2 baths. Double sink in primary, and a tiled walk-in shower. Take note of the many features and finishes including offset tile flooring in all main living areas, granite countertops in the kitchen and bathrooms, sprinkler system in front and back, oversized lot, NO back neighbors. Investors welcome to check out this opportunity as well. Take a look and call this yours today!

20. 2020-03-16
    soldstatus Sold 935-char remark

    Show marketing remark (935 chars)

    Century Communities is excited to welcome you to your brand new home in Polo Ranch! This lovely 1-story home features a front porch entry, beautiful 3-sided brick exterior, mahogany front door, large covered back patio, double sink in master, and LARGE CUL-DE-SAC homesite! You will also benefit from many features and finishes including offset tile flooring in all main living areas, SS appliances, granite countertops in the kitchen and bathrooms, neutral color scheme, subway tile backsplash, a 5' tiled walk-in shower in your master bathroom, ceiling fans, Rinnai tankless hot water heater, LED lighting, front and back gutters, full sprinkler system, 16 SEER HVAC system, Environments for Living certified home, and the latest Century Home Connect featuring smart home technology and devices in partnership with Google. Polo Ranch boasts rolling hills, green reserves, and The Ranch Club featuring a lap pool and recreation area.

21. 2020-02-19
    status Pending 935-char remark

    Show marketing remark (935 chars)

    Century Communities is excited to welcome you to your brand new home in Polo Ranch! This lovely 1-story home features a front porch entry, beautiful 3-sided brick exterior, mahogany front door, large covered back patio, double sink in master, and LARGE CUL-DE-SAC homesite! You will also benefit from many features and finishes including offset tile flooring in all main living areas, SS appliances, granite countertops in the kitchen and bathrooms, neutral color scheme, subway tile backsplash, a 5' tiled walk-in shower in your master bathroom, ceiling fans, Rinnai tankless hot water heater, LED lighting, front and back gutters, full sprinkler system, 16 SEER HVAC system, Environments for Living certified home, and the latest Century Home Connect featuring smart home technology and devices in partnership with Google. Polo Ranch boasts rolling hills, green reserves, and The Ranch Club featuring a lap pool and recreation area.

22. 2020-01-21
    price $211,090 935-char remark

    Show marketing remark (935 chars)

    Century Communities is excited to welcome you to your brand new home in Polo Ranch! This lovely 1-story home features a front porch entry, beautiful 3-sided brick exterior, mahogany front door, large covered back patio, double sink in master, and LARGE CUL-DE-SAC homesite! You will also benefit from many features and finishes including offset tile flooring in all main living areas, SS appliances, granite countertops in the kitchen and bathrooms, neutral color scheme, subway tile backsplash, a 5' tiled walk-in shower in your master bathroom, ceiling fans, Rinnai tankless hot water heater, LED lighting, front and back gutters, full sprinkler system, 16 SEER HVAC system, Environments for Living certified home, and the latest Century Home Connect featuring smart home technology and devices in partnership with Google. Polo Ranch boasts rolling hills, green reserves, and The Ranch Club featuring a lap pool and recreation area.

23. 2019-10-20
    listed $215,440 Active 935-char remark

    Show marketing remark (935 chars)

    Century Communities is excited to welcome you to your brand new home in Polo Ranch! This lovely 1-story home features a front porch entry, beautiful 3-sided brick exterior, mahogany front door, large covered back patio, double sink in master, and LARGE CUL-DE-SAC homesite! You will also benefit from many features and finishes including offset tile flooring in all main living areas, SS appliances, granite countertops in the kitchen and bathrooms, neutral color scheme, subway tile backsplash, a 5' tiled walk-in shower in your master bathroom, ceiling fans, Rinnai tankless hot water heater, LED lighting, front and back gutters, full sprinkler system, 16 SEER HVAC system, Environments for Living certified home, and the latest Century Home Connect featuring smart home technology and devices in partnership with Google. Polo Ranch boasts rolling hills, green reserves, and The Ranch Club featuring a lap pool and recreation area.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,448 · $704/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,448 · $704/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,642
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$8,448
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,611
• − Management: −$2,611
• − HOA: −$876
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$4,431
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,064
• After-tax cash flow: $544/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 1-story home requires moderate repairs to its exterior and interior, but has good kitchen and bathroom features. Painting and updating the interior and exterior would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major brick exterior — Significant wear and peeling paint
• Major exterior paint — Peeling paint

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal
• Resale repair brick — Improves home's overall appearance
• Both paint interior walls — Enhances interior aesthetics and value
• Both replace flooring — Modernizes and increases value
• Both update kitchen appliances — Modernizes and increases value
• Both update bathrooms — Modernizes and increases value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
brick exterior · Significant wear and peeling paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior paint · Peeling paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale repair brick — Improves home's overall appearance ↑
• Both paint interior walls — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑
• Both replace flooring — Modernizes and increases value ↑
• Both update kitchen appliances — Modernizes and increases value ↑
• Both update bathrooms — Modernizes and increases value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fulshear, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+25.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $269,999 HARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $274,999 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $289,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2020-03-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-02-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-01-21 Price Changed $211,090 HARMLS
• 2019-10-20 Listed $215,440 HARMLS

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,448 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.