104 Hillcreek Dr · Rockfish, NC 28371

$199,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,052 sqft · Manufactured public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2015

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful one owner home!! Ready to move in. Spacious kitchen with island & tons of cabinets. Primary bedroom is oversize with a huge walk in closet. The bathroom has double vanities and separate bathtub/shower. Formal living room plus a family room, 2 guest bedrooms and a guest bath. Home has gutters and a deck. Welcome to your new home.

Key facts

• New kitchen flooring
• Large living areas
• Septic system pumped

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN FLOORING
• NEW ROOF
• SEPTIC SYSTEM PUMPED
• LARGE LIVING AREAS
• ACCOMMODATING KITCHEN SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Creekside (Hoke) subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Utilities: Public water; Holding tank or septic tank for sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Front porch; Cleared, level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup in unit; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $418 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.7% in Rockfish — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#108 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Hoke County Schools (suburban): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #123 of 178 in NC (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sandy Grove Elementary (math 26% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,018 of 1,410 statewide, top 72%, 578 students, 100% FRL); Sandy Grove Middle (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #251 of 475 statewide, top 54%, 645 students, 99% FRL); Hoke County High (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #372 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 2,060 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 57% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 685 units permitted in Hoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hoke County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $154k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.96%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.42×
• Total profit: $135,448
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.75×
• Total profit: $377,821
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28371

• Home prices YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,311/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $418

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,571

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $531	-5% $475	+0% $418	+5% $362	+10% $305
Rent	-10% $252	-5% $335	+0% $418	+5% $501	+10% $584
Rate	-1.0pp $519	-0.5pp $469	base $418	+0.5pp $366	+1.0pp $314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
761 Sunset Lake Rd Lumber Bridge, NC	4.0	2.5	1906	$2,100	$1.10	23d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $199,900 Active
2. 2025-07-15
   price $185,000
3. 2025-06-02
   listed $199,000 Active
4. 2022-09-16
   soldstatus $154,000 Closed 344-char remark

   Show marketing remark (344 chars)

   Beautiful one owner home!! Ready to move in. Spacious kitchen with island & tons of cabinets. Primary bedroom is oversize with a huge walk in closet. The bathroom has double vanities and separate bathtub/shower. Formal living room plus a family room, 2 guest bedrooms and a guest bath. Home has gutters and a deck. Welcome to your new home.

5. 2022-09-16
   soldstatus $154,000

   Show marketing remark (344 chars)

   Beautiful one owner home!! Ready to move in. Spacious kitchen with island & tons of cabinets. Primary bedroom is oversize with a huge walk in closet. The bathroom has double vanities and separate bathtub/shower. Formal living room plus a family room, 2 guest bedrooms and a guest bath. Home has gutters and a deck. Welcome to your new home.

6. 2022-09-16
   soldstatus $154,000

   Show marketing remark (344 chars)

   Beautiful one owner home!! Ready to move in. Spacious kitchen with island & tons of cabinets. Primary bedroom is oversize with a huge walk in closet. The bathroom has double vanities and separate bathtub/shower. Formal living room plus a family room, 2 guest bedrooms and a guest bath. Home has gutters and a deck. Welcome to your new home.

7. 2022-08-16
   status Pending 344-char remark

   Show marketing remark (344 chars)

   Beautiful one owner home!! Ready to move in. Spacious kitchen with island & tons of cabinets. Primary bedroom is oversize with a huge walk in closet. The bathroom has double vanities and separate bathtub/shower. Formal living room plus a family room, 2 guest bedrooms and a guest bath. Home has gutters and a deck. Welcome to your new home.

8. 2022-08-08
   listed $148,900 Active 344-char remark

   Show marketing remark (344 chars)

   Beautiful one owner home!! Ready to move in. Spacious kitchen with island & tons of cabinets. Primary bedroom is oversize with a huge walk in closet. The bathroom has double vanities and separate bathtub/shower. Formal living room plus a family room, 2 guest bedrooms and a guest bath. Home has gutters and a deck. Welcome to your new home.

9. 2022-08-08
   listed $148,900

   Show marketing remark (344 chars)

   Beautiful one owner home!! Ready to move in. Spacious kitchen with island & tons of cabinets. Primary bedroom is oversize with a huge walk in closet. The bathroom has double vanities and separate bathtub/shower. Formal living room plus a family room, 2 guest bedrooms and a guest bath. Home has gutters and a deck. Welcome to your new home.

10. 2015-05-18
    soldstatus $9,999
11. 2013-10-29
    listed $9,999
12. 2010-11-24
    soldstatus $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,311 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,639 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$328/yr (+$27/mo · 25.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,311
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,016
• − Management: −$2,016
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $1,845
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$443
• After-tax cash flow: $4,575/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hoke County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,896
• Composite: 31.82/100
• National rank: #5880
• State rank: #123 of 178 in NC

Livability — Rockfish

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #108
• US rank: #6802

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,458

Population outlook (Hoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,354 people
• By 2030: 68,361 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 78,074 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 86,384 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 99,517 · +57.1%
• By 2100: 98,939 · +56.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hoke

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 18.8pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+10.9 2016: D+10.8 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.91%
• Current HPI: 330.85
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+1437.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $199,900 LPRMLS
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $185,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-06-02 Listed $199,000 LPRMLS
• 2022-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $154,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-16 Sold (MLS) $154,000 LPRMLS
• 2022-09-16 Sold (MLS) $154,000 TMLS
• 2022-08-16 Pending — TMLS
• 2022-08-08 Listed $148,900 LPRMLS
• 2022-08-08 Listed $148,900 TMLS
• 2015-05-18 Sold (MLS) $9,999 LPRMLS
• 2013-10-29 Listed $9,999 LPRMLS
• 2010-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+69.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,311 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.