11851 Riverside Dr Spc 206 · Lakeside, CA 92040

$284,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,493 sqft · Manufactured public records · 220 Days on market

Built 2000 16 ac lot Est $336k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located at Willowbrook Estates West, the privacy of a Gated Community and right next door to Willowbrook Golf Course, This 3Br. 2Ba. Home with attached garage with very low maintenance yard has been meticulously kept up by original owner. Large Master Bedroom with double doors leading to Master bathroom, His and Hers walk in closets. Separate formal Dining area next to Living room. Open kitchen area with large breakfast area. Access to garage through Laundry room, Access to covered patio from garage.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Low-maintenance yard
• Primary suite

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• WILLOWBROOK GOLF COURSE
• LOW-MAINTENANCE YARD
• PRIMARY SUITE
• DOUBLE-DOOR ENTRY
• HIS-AND-HERS WALK-IN CLOSETS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community pool; Community spa/hot tub; Golf course access; Clubhouse; Gated community; Located in a senior community (Willowbrook Estates West, Lakeside subdivision)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Total 2 parking spaces (1 garage space)
• Security: Gated community access; Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water connected; Electricity available and connected; Natural gas available and connected
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Partial fencing; In-ground community pool; Community spa/hot tub; Gated community

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $499 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.6% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#877 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A-, housing A-, health & safety B; Watch: commute D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Lakeside Union Elementary (suburban): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #480 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $90k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $285k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,799 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.50%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $335,925
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11851 Riverside Dr Spc 285 Dr Spc 285	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,546 (+4%)	4mo	$348,000	$225	91
11949 Riverside Dr #38	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+3%)	4mo	$192,500	$125	83
11851 Riverside Dr Spc 223	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,418 (-5%)	10mo	$375,000	$264	78
11851 RIVERSIDE Dr #238	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-6%)	15mo	$375,000	$268	77
11851 Riverside Dr #246	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-6%)	10mo	$418,500	$299	76
11949 Riverside Dr #133	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,376 (-8%)	1mo	$161,000	$117	73
11949 Riverside Dr #7	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,530 (+2%)	21mo	$278,900	$182	69
11949 Riverside Dr #155	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-10%)	2mo	$95,000	$71	67
11851 Riverside Dr Spc 260	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-9%)	23mo	$300,000	$221	66
11851 Riverside Dr #262	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,331 (-11%)	20mo	$342,000	$257	65
11949 Riverside Dr #177	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,598 (+7%)	16mo	$310,000	$194	62
11949 Riverside Dr #25	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-10%)	22mo	$340,000	$253	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-12,963
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $35,614
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92040

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,769 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $898/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $499

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,137

Max offer price $284,999

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12156 Lakeside Ave Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.0	1424	$3,500	$2.46	1d	1	0.44mi
9830 Summersun Ln Lakeside, CA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1325	$2,700	$2.04	1d	1	0.55mi
12001 Woodside Ave Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	1006	$2,350	$2.34	1d	1	0.65mi
12370 Parkside St Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	944	$1,925	$2.04	7d	1	0.82mi
9662 Marilla Dr Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	931	$2,388	$2.56	1d	4	0.83mi
9662 Marilla Dr Unit 93 Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	931	$2,350	$2.52	10d	1	0.83mi
9728 Marilla Dr #305 Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	944	$2,590	$2.74	1d	1	0.83mi
12618 Laurel St Unit 12618 C Lakeside, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,390	$2.17	1d	1	1.01mi
10112 Ashwood St Lakeside, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	763	$1,944	$2.55	1d	8	1.03mi
12645 Laurel St Apt 13 Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,950	$2.17	1d	1	1.06mi
12645 Laurel St Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,950	$2.17	10d	1	1.06mi
12738 Lakeshore Dr Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.5	1368	$4,300	$3.14	7d	1	1.19mi
12840 Mapleview St Lakeside, CA	2.0	2.0	880	$2,100	$2.39	1d	3	1.22mi
9205 Emerald Grove Ave Lakeside, CA	3.0	2.0	1652	$3,650	$2.21	2d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $284,999 Active 220 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $284,999 Active 219 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $284,999 Active 218 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $284,999 Active 217 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,999 Active 217 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,999 Active 215 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,999 Active 211 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,999 Active 210 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $289,999 Active 209 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,999 Active 206 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,999 Active 205 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,999 Active 204 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,999 Active 203 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,999 Active 202 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    status Active
16. 2026-05-21
    historical
17. 2026-03-16
    price $299,999
18. 2026-02-09
    price $338,000
19. 2026-01-09
    price $340,000
20. 2025-11-24
    price $355,000
21. 2025-11-12
    status Active
22. 2025-10-31
    historical
23. 2025-10-31
    status Active
24. 2025-10-31
    price $385,000
25. 2025-10-03
    historical
26. 2025-10-02
    listed $375,000 Active
27. 2016-10-14
    soldstatus $175,000 Sold 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    Located at Willowbrook Estates West, the privacy of a Gated Community and right next door to Willowbrook Golf Course, This 3Br. 2Ba. Home with attached garage with very low maintenance yard has been meticulously kept up by original owner. Large Master Bedroom with double doors leading to Master bathroom, His and Hers walk in closets. Separate formal Dining area next to Living room. Open kitchen area with large breakfast area. Access to garage through Laundry room, Access to covered patio from garage.

28. 2016-10-04
    status Pending 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    Located at Willowbrook Estates West, the privacy of a Gated Community and right next door to Willowbrook Golf Course, This 3Br. 2Ba. Home with attached garage with very low maintenance yard has been meticulously kept up by original owner. Large Master Bedroom with double doors leading to Master bathroom, His and Hers walk in closets. Separate formal Dining area next to Living room. Open kitchen area with large breakfast area. Access to garage through Laundry room, Access to covered patio from garage.

29. 2016-07-09
    listed $179,900 Active 506-char remark

    Show marketing remark (506 chars)

    Located at Willowbrook Estates West, the privacy of a Gated Community and right next door to Willowbrook Golf Course, This 3Br. 2Ba. Home with attached garage with very low maintenance yard has been meticulously kept up by original owner. Large Master Bedroom with double doors leading to Master bathroom, His and Hers walk in closets. Separate formal Dining area next to Living room. Open kitchen area with large breakfast area. Access to garage through Laundry room, Access to covered patio from garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $898 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,166 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,268/yr (+$106/mo · 141.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,223
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$898
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,658
• − Management: −$2,658
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable income: $1,329
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$319
• After-tax cash flow: $5,669/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0620790
• Math proficiency: 41% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $65,574
• Composite: 43.51/100
• National rank: #6453
• State rank: #480 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #877
• US rank: #23702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeside, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 46,216
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,216
• Household income: $107,937
• Rent vs Own: 32.3% rent · 67.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1147.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 2% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -622.09%
• Current HPI: 344.8263
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.56%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+66.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2026-05-21 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $299,999 SDMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $338,000 SDMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $340,000 SDMLS
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $355,000 SDMLS
• 2025-11-12 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-10-31 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $385,000 SDMLS
• 2025-10-03 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-10-02 Listed $375,000 SDMLS
• 2016-10-14 Sold (MLS) $175,000 SDMLS
• 2016-10-04 Pending — SDMLS
• 2016-07-09 Listed $179,900 SDMLS

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2017): $898 · -25.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.