Plan 1964 Plan · Barrett, TX 77532

$240,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,964 sqft · SingleFamily · 86 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Gas range * Tankless water heater * Den * Kitchen island * Granite kitchen countertops * Extra storage space * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Master-planned community * Near top-rated schools * Planned pickleball court * Planned parks * Planned playground

Key facts

• Smart thermostat
• Gas range
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN KITCHEN PANTRY
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• GAS RANGE
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER

🏗️ New construction. The $240,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $290,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $241k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-551 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (12.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 5.8% in Barrett — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1188 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,167 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.14%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,990
• List price: $240,995
• Delta: -17.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12746 Oat Grass Dr	0.05mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,922 (-2%)	2mo	$302,990	$158	86
12734 Oat Grass Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,922 (-2%)	2mo	$307,990	$160	85
1338 Sea Oats Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,922 (-2%)	2mo	$306,990	$160	84
1226 Bonnerjee Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,904 (-3%)	1mo	$301,990	$159	83
1218 Bonnerjee Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,904 (-3%)	1mo	$272,040	$143	82
12919 Dianna Lee Dr	0.20mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,979 (+1%)	1mo	$280,490	$142	82
13007 Dianna Lee Ln	0.20mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,979 (+1%)	1mo	$282,990	$143	81
12942 Dianna Lee Ln	0.20mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,979 (+1%)	2mo	$285,990	$145	81
13046 Dianna Lee Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,979 (+1%)	1mo	$233,490	$118	81
1223 Bonnerjee Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,859 (-5%)	1mo	$292,990	$158	74
1339 Sea Oats Dr	0.09mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,157 (+10%)	1mo	$316,990	$147	70
12742 Oat Grass Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (-15%)	2mo	$286,990	$171	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-85,113
• Equity at exit: $43,388

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.60×
• Total profit: $-130,635
• Equity at exit: $25,159

Cash invested: $81,477 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1188
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,932 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,526
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$364 /mo · $4,365/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $-551

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,630

Max offer price $211,201

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-350	-5% $-451	+0% $-551	+5% $-652	+10% $-753
Rent	-10% $-704	-5% $-628	+0% $-551	+5% $-475	+10% $-399
Rate	-1.0pp $-405	-0.5pp $-477	base $-551	+0.5pp $-627	+1.0pp $-704

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,748
• Closing costs: $8,730
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $240,995 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,995 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,995 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,995 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,995 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,995 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,995 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,995 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $240,995 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $240,995 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,995 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,995 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,995 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-04-15
    price $250,995 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Gas range * Tankless water heater * Den * Kitchen island * Granite kitchen countertops * Extra storage space * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Master-planned community * Near top-rated schools * Planned pickleball court * Planned parks * Planned playground

15. 2026-04-04
    price $260,995 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Gas range * Tankless water heater * Den * Kitchen island * Granite kitchen countertops * Extra storage space * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Master-planned community * Near top-rated schools * Planned pickleball court * Planned parks * Planned playground

16. 2026-03-28
    listed $268,995 Active 467-char remark

    Show marketing remark (467 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Gas range * Tankless water heater * Den * Kitchen island * Granite kitchen countertops * Extra storage space * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Master-planned community * Near top-rated schools * Planned pickleball court * Planned parks * Planned playground

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,300
• − Property taxes: −$4,365
• − Insurance: −$2,252
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,854
• − Management: −$1,854
• − Depreciation: −$8,465
• Taxable loss: −$11,911
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,859
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,758/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with no visible repairs needed. It has a smart thermostat, low-E windows, and a well-maintained exterior and landscaping. The home is located in a master-planned community with planned amenities such as parks and playgrounds.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and comfort.
• Both Low-E windows — Reduces energy costs and enhances curb appeal.
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and comfort. ↑
• Both Low-E windows — Reduces energy costs and enhances curb appeal. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Barrett

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1335
• US rank: #22991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barrett, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $250,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $260,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-28 Listed $268,995 Zillow