286 Courtyard Cir · Winder, GA 30680

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,095 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1996 $219/sqft · 13% below area Est $276k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.4/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom 2 Bath home located in Winder. Fenced in back yard. #bat3

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Vinyl flooring
• One-level ranch

Tags

• ONE-LEVEL RANCH
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SCHOOLS
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SHOPPING
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SPLIT BEDROOM LAYOUT
• VINYL FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA; Community features include street lights, walkable to schools, and near shopping

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pad with space for 2 vehicles; Open parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Sewer connected; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; House; Built in 1996; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch; Back yard with wood privacy fencing; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast area; Country kitchen; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Ceiling fan(s); Electric cooling
• Interior features: Split bedroom plan; One-level living
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-161 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (30.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.9% in Winder — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#47 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Barrow County (rural): math 29% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #77 of 174 in GA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Winder Elementary School (math 21% / reading 26%, grade F, #790 of 1,228 statewide, top 65%, 654 students, 65% FRL); Russell Middle School (math 30% / reading 38%, grade F, #201 of 470 statewide, top 44%, 931 students, 52% FRL); Winder-Barrow High School (math 14% / reading 24%, grade F, #250 of 424 statewide, top 60%, 1,787 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 566 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,427 units permitted in Barrow County in 2024 (311 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Barrow County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $53k; list at $240k implies a 354% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,565 (30.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.87%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,014
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -13.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
223 N 5th Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,161 (+6%)	0mo	$270,000	$233	63
175 Melrose St	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+10%)	3mo	$299,000	$249	63
147 Langford St	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,134 (+4%)	0mo	$260,000	$229	59
238 West Midland Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,078 (-2%)	8mo	$277,000	$257	57
187 Bellview St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,068 (-2%)	3mo	$255,000	$239	54
87 Clifton Dr	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,144 (+4%)	8mo	$140,000	$122	48
113 Martha Steet St	0.67mi	3/1.0	980 (-10%)	0mo	$189,000	$193	47
221 James St	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,001 (-9%)	11mo	$200,000	$200	45
381 W Candler St	0.67mi	3/1.0	988 (-10%)	5mo	$249,900	$253	44
113 Duke St	0.48mi	3/1.0	960 (-12%)	12mo	$235,500	$245	42
61 Clifton Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+14%)	11mo	$305,000	$244	40
432 Northcrest Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0	972 (-11%)	12mo	$180,000	$185	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-50,421
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-62,412
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30680

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 566
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,676 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,516/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $-161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,879

Max offer price $211,535

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-25	-5% $-93	+0% $-161	+5% $-228	+10% $-296
Rent	-10% $-293	-5% $-227	+0% $-161	+5% $-94	+10% $-28
Rate	-1.0pp $-40	-0.5pp $-100	base $-161	+0.5pp $-223	+1.0pp $-286

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
291 Apperson Dr Unit 290-5 Winder, GA	2.0	1.5	944	$1,395	$1.48	19d	1	0.10mi
291 Apperson Dr Unit 291-7 Winder, GA	2.0	1.0	860	$1,295	$1.51	19d	1	0.10mi
291 Apperson Dr Unit 1 Winder, GA	2.0	1.0–1.5	902	$1,345	$1.49	6d	2	0.10mi
150 Brookview Ter Winder, GA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	44d	3	0.12mi
97 Lily Dr Unit F Winder, GA	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,500	$1.46	13d	1	0.61mi
303 Cedar Creek Rd Unit G Winder, GA	2.0	1.0	925	$1,350	$1.46	44d	1	0.64mi
312 Highway 211 NW Winder, GA	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,625	$1.32	44d	1	0.70mi
128 Pine Cir Winder, GA	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,495	$1.47	21d	1	0.75mi
268 Elks St Unit A Winder, GA	2.0	1.0	816	$1,245	$1.53	6d	1	0.84mi
268 Elks St Unit B Winder, GA	2.0	1.0	816	$1,245	$1.53	44d	1	0.84mi
114 W Wright St Winder, GA	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,939	$1.30	2d	1	0.88mi
172 Williamsburg Way Winder, GA	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,920	$1.51	4d	1	0.92mi
47 W New St Unit B Winder, GA	2.0	1.0	925	$1,400	$1.51	16d	1	0.99mi
238 W Oak St Winder, GA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,295	$1.54	25d	1	1.15mi
74 Martin Luther King Jr Dr Winder, GA	2.0	2.0	1268	$1,350	$1.06	6d	1	1.26mi
120 N Williams St Winder, GA	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,900	$1.43	44d	1	1.31mi
Williams Ct Winder, GA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,395	$1.45	44d	1	1.32mi
123 Northridge Dr Winder, GA	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,819	$1.42	6d	1	1.46mi
51 Atlanta Ave Winder, GA	3.0	2.0	1000	$2,050	$2.05	44d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $239,900 Under Contract 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,900 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,900 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-04-22
    listed $239,900 New 566-char remark
16. 2015-11-20
    price $52,800 68-char remark

    Show marketing remark (68 chars)

    3 Bedroom 2 Bath home located in Winder. Fenced in back yard. #bat3

17. 2013-05-16
    soldstatus $52,800 Sold 68-char remark

    Show marketing remark (68 chars)

    3 Bedroom 2 Bath home located in Winder. Fenced in back yard. #bat3

18. 2013-04-25
    status Under Contract 68-char remark

    Show marketing remark (68 chars)

    3 Bedroom 2 Bath home located in Winder. Fenced in back yard. #bat3

19. 2013-04-25
    price $60,000 68-char remark

    Show marketing remark (68 chars)

    3 Bedroom 2 Bath home located in Winder. Fenced in back yard. #bat3

20. 2013-04-05
    listed $60,000 New 68-char remark

    Show marketing remark (68 chars)

    3 Bedroom 2 Bath home located in Winder. Fenced in back yard. #bat3

21. 2012-08-10
    historical
22. 2012-03-21
    listed $132,000 New
23. 2006-07-27
    soldstatus $125,000
24. 2005-12-27
    soldstatus $70,800
25. 2005-12-21
    soldstatus $70,141
26. 2005-11-15
    listed $83,000
27. 1997-03-07
    soldstatus $36,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,516 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,207 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: +$691/yr (+$58/mo · 45.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$1,516
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,609
• − Management: −$1,609
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$6,242
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,498
• After-tax cash flow: $-429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barrow County
• NCES district ID: 1300290
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $52,082
• Composite: 27.63/100
• National rank: #6921
• State rank: #77 of 174 in GA

Livability — Winder

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #5120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winder, GA
• County: Barrow County · 133,377 people
• City population: 48,388
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 48,388
• Household income: $80,956
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 622.0

Population outlook (Barrow County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 86,670 people
• By 2030: 92,039 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 101,992 · +17.7%
• By 2050: 110,075 · +27.0%
• By 2075: 124,017 · +43.1%
• By 2100: 127,579 · +47.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Barrow

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.5) · D 29.5% · R 70.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -40.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.5 2020: R+43.1 2016: R+50.4 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.21%
• Current HPI: 229.5804
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+566.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $239,900 GAMLS
• 2015-11-20 Price Changed $52,800 GAMLS
• 2013-05-16 Sold (MLS) $52,800 GAMLS
• 2013-04-25 Pending — GAMLS
• 2013-04-25 Price Changed $60,000 GAMLS
• 2013-04-05 Listed $60,000 GAMLS
• 2012-08-10 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2012-03-21 Listed $132,000 GAMLS
• 2006-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $70,800 Public Records
• 2005-12-21 Sold (MLS) $70,141 Hive MLS
• 2005-11-15 Listed $83,000 Hive MLS
• 1997-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,516 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.