222 Poplar St · Erie, PA 16507

$135,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1901 2,640 sqft lot $90/sqft · 8% above area Est $125k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• ARV discount +3.9/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in Erie City's quickly developing Northwest Bayfront, this home is located just blocks from Presque Isle Bay, the Bayfront Promenade, and Gridley Park and is also within 1.0 to 1.4 miles of Gannon University, UPMC Hamot, Strong Vincent Middle School, and Frontier Park. This home was lived in, tenderly cared for, and loved by one pair of owners and their family from 1978 to 2023 at which time it was sold, painted, spruced up, and rented to a single family who has lived there since 2023. Assessed at 1500 square feet, this house features 5 bedrooms, including a first floor bedroom, and 2 full bathrooms, including a first floor bathroom. Other amenities include laundry hookups in the full basement, a large walk-up attic, a high-efficiency gas furnace with Central A/C, gas water heater, gas oven/range, newer carpet throughout much of the house, the recently renovated 2nd floor bathroom, and low maintenance yard.

Key facts

• First floor bathroom
• Large walk-up attic
• Central a/c

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR BEDROOM
• FIRST FLOOR BATHROOM
• LAUNDRY HOOKUPS
• LARGE WALK-UP ATTIC
• HIGH-EFFICIENCY GAS FURNACE
• CENTRAL A/C

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $404 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 39 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,760/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($33k/yr) (locally 776% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $135k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $126,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.82%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $124,985
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: 8.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
623 W 5th St	0.21mi	4/1.0	1,560 (+4%)	4mo	$150,000	$96	78
963 W 7th St	0.44mi	4/1.0	1,536 (+2%)	6mo	$145,000	$94	69
211 Walnut St	0.30mi	4/1.0	1,628 (+8%)	3mo	$55,000	$34	67
539 W 3rd St	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,668 (+11%)	9mo	$82,000	$49	62
922 W 10 St	0.57mi	4/2.5	1,536 (+2%)	5mo	$150,500	$98	61
912 W 8th St	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,624 (+8%)	9mo	$200,000	$123	57
458 W 2nd St	0.31mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,368 (-9%)	10mo	$130,000	$95	55
1111 W 5th St	0.48mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,348 (-10%)	4mo	$165,000	$122	50
1062 W 9th St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,576 (+5%)	8mo	$135,000	$86	48
1054 W 11th	0.74mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,544 (+3%)	3mo	$64,600	$42	48
910 Walnut St	0.57mi	4/1.0	1,674 (+12%)	8mo	$105,000	$63	46
1011 W 6th St	0.41mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,280 (-15%)	7mo	$165,000	$129	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.17% appreciation · 0.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $45,602
• Equity at exit: $69,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $110,448
• Equity at exit: $115,228

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16507

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,760 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,669/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,249

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $480	-5% $442	+0% $404	+5% $366	+10% $328
Rent	-10% $265	-5% $334	+0% $404	+5% $474	+10% $543
Rate	-1.0pp $472	-0.5pp $438	base $404	+0.5pp $369	+1.0pp $333

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
538 W 8th St Unit 1 Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	2000	$1,650	$0.82	44d	1	0.43mi
729 W 9th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1782	$3,000	$1.68	44d	1	0.50mi
1164 W 7th St Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1248	$1,600	$1.28	44d	1	0.65mi
923 Chestnut St Unit 2 Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	44d	1	0.67mi
1610 Poplar St Unit Downstairs Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$875	$0.73	44d	1	1.00mi
100 Erie Insurance Pl Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,425	$1.27	44d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 57 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 56 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    price $135,000 929-char remark

    Show marketing remark (929 chars)

    Located in Erie City's quickly developing Northwest Bayfront, this home is located just blocks from Presque Isle Bay, the Bayfront Promenade, and Gridley Park and is also within 1.0 to 1.4 miles of Gannon University, UPMC Hamot, Strong Vincent Middle School, and Frontier Park. This home was lived in, tenderly cared for, and loved by one pair of owners and their family from 1978 to 2023 at which time it was sold, painted, spruced up, and rented to a single family who has lived there since 2023. Assessed at 1500 square feet, this house features 5 bedrooms, including a first floor bedroom, and 2 full bathrooms, including a first floor bathroom. Other amenities include laundry hookups in the full basement, a large walk-up attic, a high-efficiency gas furnace with Central A/C, gas water heater, gas oven/range, newer carpet throughout much of the house, the recently renovated 2nd floor bathroom, and low maintenance yard.

19. 2026-05-08
    price $140,000 929-char remark

    Show marketing remark (929 chars)

    Located in Erie City's quickly developing Northwest Bayfront, this home is located just blocks from Presque Isle Bay, the Bayfront Promenade, and Gridley Park and is also within 1.0 to 1.4 miles of Gannon University, UPMC Hamot, Strong Vincent Middle School, and Frontier Park. This home was lived in, tenderly cared for, and loved by one pair of owners and their family from 1978 to 2023 at which time it was sold, painted, spruced up, and rented to a single family who has lived there since 2023. Assessed at 1500 square feet, this house features 5 bedrooms, including a first floor bedroom, and 2 full bathrooms, including a first floor bathroom. Other amenities include laundry hookups in the full basement, a large walk-up attic, a high-efficiency gas furnace with Central A/C, gas water heater, gas oven/range, newer carpet throughout much of the house, the recently renovated 2nd floor bathroom, and low maintenance yard.

20. 2026-04-20
    price $150,000 929-char remark

    Show marketing remark (929 chars)

    Located in Erie City's quickly developing Northwest Bayfront, this home is located just blocks from Presque Isle Bay, the Bayfront Promenade, and Gridley Park and is also within 1.0 to 1.4 miles of Gannon University, UPMC Hamot, Strong Vincent Middle School, and Frontier Park. This home was lived in, tenderly cared for, and loved by one pair of owners and their family from 1978 to 2023 at which time it was sold, painted, spruced up, and rented to a single family who has lived there since 2023. Assessed at 1500 square feet, this house features 5 bedrooms, including a first floor bedroom, and 2 full bathrooms, including a first floor bathroom. Other amenities include laundry hookups in the full basement, a large walk-up attic, a high-efficiency gas furnace with Central A/C, gas water heater, gas oven/range, newer carpet throughout much of the house, the recently renovated 2nd floor bathroom, and low maintenance yard.

21. 2026-04-04
    listed $159,500 Active 929-char remark

    Show marketing remark (929 chars)

    Located in Erie City's quickly developing Northwest Bayfront, this home is located just blocks from Presque Isle Bay, the Bayfront Promenade, and Gridley Park and is also within 1.0 to 1.4 miles of Gannon University, UPMC Hamot, Strong Vincent Middle School, and Frontier Park. This home was lived in, tenderly cared for, and loved by one pair of owners and their family from 1978 to 2023 at which time it was sold, painted, spruced up, and rented to a single family who has lived there since 2023. Assessed at 1500 square feet, this house features 5 bedrooms, including a first floor bedroom, and 2 full bathrooms, including a first floor bathroom. Other amenities include laundry hookups in the full basement, a large walk-up attic, a high-efficiency gas furnace with Central A/C, gas water heater, gas oven/range, newer carpet throughout much of the house, the recently renovated 2nd floor bathroom, and low maintenance yard.

22. 2023-07-27
    soldstatus $60,000
23. 1978-08-11
    soldstatus $18,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,669 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,669 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,123
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,669
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,690
• − Management: −$1,690
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $2,910
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$698
• After-tax cash flow: $4,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,597
• Household income: $33,361
• Rent vs Own: 66.2% rent · 33.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 776.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 24% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.17%
• Current HPI: 163.92
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.10%
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+629.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $135,000 GEBOR
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $140,000 GEBOR
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $150,000 GEBOR
• 2026-04-04 Listed $159,500 GEBOR
• 2023-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1978-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,669 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.