527 Walnut St · Carthage, MO 64836

$115,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,482 sqft · Other · 46 Days on market

Built 1895 4,800 sqft lot $78/sqft · 9% below area Est $126k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great starter home or investment home. Lots of space! Fresh paint throughout. Main level has primary bedroom and office space and full bath, kitchen and laundry. Upstairs has 3 non conforming bedroom's, full bath and playroom.

Key facts

• 4,800 sq ft lot
• Built 1895
• Listed 45 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential, freestanding
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Stone foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: No patio or porch listed; No fencing; Lot roughly 40 x 120

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: No built-in appliances listed; No fireplace; Total of 9 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#131 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Carthage R-IX (town): math 37% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #183 of 324 in MO (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Columbian Elem. (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #910 of 1,115 statewide, top 83%, 379 students, 87% FRL); Carthage Jr. High (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #189 of 391 statewide, top 51%, 752 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 56% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 195 active listings in the ZIP; 602 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.70%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,109
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -8.81%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $4,747
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $34,147
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64836

• Home prices YoY: -18.2%
• Active inventory: 195
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,359 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $659/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $894

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 27 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 26 DOM
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $115,000 Active 226-char remark
18. 2004-07-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $659 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,116 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$457/yr (+$38/mo · 69.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,307
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$659
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,305
• − Management: −$1,305
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $2,677
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$642
• After-tax cash flow: $3,769/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carthage R-IX
• NCES district ID: 2907460
• Math proficiency: 37% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,696
• Composite: 31.85/100
• National rank: #5874
• State rank: #183 of 324 in MO

Livability — Carthage

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #131
• US rank: #7646

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carthage, MO
• County: Jasper County · 79,035 people
• City population: 26,562
• Metro: Joplin, MO
• Population (ZIP): 26,562
• Household income: $61,335
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 800.0

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,033 people
• By 2030: 120,091 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 119,297 · -0.6%
• By 2050: 117,705 · -1.9%
• By 2075: 110,402 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 99,719 · -16.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 18%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.8) · D 25.9% · R 72.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -33.2pp · 2024: -46.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.8 2020: R+46.2 2016: R+50.8 2012: R+41.0 2008: R+33.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.61%
• Current HPI: 250.499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Joplin, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $115,000 OGAR
• 2004-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $659 · +24.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.