Mesquite Plan · Punta Gorda, FL 33955

$304,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,867 sqft · SingleFamily · 390 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to The Mesquite - Spacious, Stylish, and Perfect for Family Living Discover The Mesquite, a brand-new 4-bedroom, 2-bath home designed with an open-concept floor plan that invites endless possibilities. The spacious great room seamlessly connects the dining area and kitchen, creating a warm and inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. The guest bedrooms are thoughtfully placed on the opposite side of the home, offering privacy and comfort. Meanwhile, the master suite is a true retreat, featuring a large bathroom and a generous walk-in closet to elevate your living experience. Ideal for growing families or anyone seeking a perfectly livable home, The Mesquite balances styl

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 390 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 12191 Gasparilla Ave, Punta Gorda, FL 33955
• Financial info: List price $304,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Mesquite)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,867

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: Plan name: Mesquite; Active listing

🏗️ New construction. The $304,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $302,454.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-205/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $300k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (13.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $262k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.8% in Punta Gorda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#225 in FL, #3,567 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Charlotte (suburban): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #22 of 73 in FL (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 1481 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,585 units permitted in Charlotte County in 2024 (703 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charlotte County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 390 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,422 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 390 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.24%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $302,454
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11828 Cloverly Ln	0.57mi	4/2.5	1,874 (+0%)	2mo	$289,000	$154	69
28595 Crossfield Ln	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,032 (+9%)	14mo	$330,000	$162	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-50,057
• Equity at exit: $45,097

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-44,827
• Equity at exit: $26,151

Cash invested: $84,687 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33955

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Active inventory: 1481
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,624 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,586
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$378 /mo · $4,537/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$551
• Net cashflow: $-17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,646

Max offer price $299,986

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $192	-5% $87	+0% $-17	+5% $-122	+10% $-226
Rent	-10% $-224	-5% $-121	+0% $-17	+5% $87	+10% $190
Rate	-1.0pp $135	-0.5pp $60	base $-17	+0.5pp $-95	+1.0pp $-175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,614
• Closing costs: $9,074
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12378 Paramount Dr Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	3.0	1836	$2,295	$1.25	22d	1	0.42mi
11827 Cloverly Ln Punta Gorda, FL	5.0	2.5	2088	$2,095	$1.00	22d	1	0.61mi
11812 Cloverly Ln Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	2.5	1875	$2,150	$1.15	22d	1	0.62mi
11795 Cloverly Ln Punta Gorda, FL	4.0	2.5	2028	$2,075	$1.02	22d	1	0.67mi
13263 Valrico Ter Punta Gorda, FL	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,500	$0.92	22d	1	1.18mi
27117 Treadmill Dr Punta Gorda, FL	5.0	3.0	2300	$3,500	$1.52	22d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $304,900 Active 390 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $304,900 Active 389 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $304,900 Active 388 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $304,900 Active 387 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $304,900 Active 385 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $304,900 Active 384 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $304,900 Active 382 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $304,900 Active 381 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $304,900 Active 380 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $304,900 Active 376 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $304,900 Active 374 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $304,900 Active 373 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $304,900 Active 372 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $304,900 Active 371 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,491
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,942
• − Property taxes: −$4,537
• − Insurance: −$1,512
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,519
• − Management: −$2,519
• − Depreciation: −$8,799
• Taxable loss: −$5,338
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,281
• After-tax cash flow: $1,076/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charlotte
• NCES district ID: 1200240
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,864
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2586
• State rank: #22 of 73 in FL

Livability — Punta Gorda

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #225
• US rank: #3567

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Charlotte County · 196,994 people
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,399
• Household income: $76,943
• Rent vs Own: 9.5% rent · 90.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 226.0

Population outlook (Charlotte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,646 people
• By 2030: 210,507 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 230,857 · +16.2%
• By 2050: 247,148 · +24.4%
• By 2075: 281,777 · +41.8%
• By 2100: 293,609 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Charlotte

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.7% · R 66.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.7pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+26.6 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+14.3 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.71%
• Current HPI: 242.9043
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Punta Gorda, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B