1202 Hi Stirrup #409 · Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657

$119,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Condo public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1977 $330/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Fabulous opportunity to own in Horseshoe Bay! This 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo with a versatile flex room is ideally located within walking distance of the Slick Rock Clubhouse, driving range, and golf course. Enjoy easy access to Horseshoe Bay Resort amenities—just minutes away by foot, car, or golf cart. Situated in the heart of a golf cart-friendly, dark sky community, this home offers both convenience and charm. The front office/flex space can easily serve as a guest room, adding to the home’s flexibility. Located in The Oaks HOA, with condo documents available for review. 1202 Hi Stirrup #409 features a private balcony shaded by a beautiful tree, providing natural privacy and a

Key facts

• Private balcony
• Natural privacy
• Golf cart community

Tags

• GOLF CART COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• NATURAL PRIVACY
• DESIGNATED COVERED PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association: The Oaks Condos; Monthly association fee of $330; HOA covers common area maintenance, grounds maintenance, sewer, trash and water; Community amenities include common grounds, clubhouse, community mailbox, curbs, golf access and internet access

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered carport; One parking space total
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity connected; Phone available; Public sewer; Public water
• Home design: Condominium; Single-story building; Faces northwest; Resale property
• Construction: Mixed roof; Stone and wood siding; Attic/crawl hatchway(s) insulated; Slab foundation; Built according to public records
• Exterior features: Deck; Balcony; Exterior steps; Rain gutters; Sloped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Free-standing electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms; Primary bedroom carpeted with en-suite bathroom and sliding door to private deck; Second bedroom with walk-in closet and access to full bath across the hall
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans for additional cooling
• Interior features: Blinds; Ceiling fans; Study / office / flex space; Walk-in closet(s); High-speed internet
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Centrally located laundry room between bedrooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $115k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 1.0% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1227 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,430 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.25%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $13,213
• Equity at exit: $40,286

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $48,736
• Equity at exit: $53,277

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1227
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,738 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$196 /mo · $2,354/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$330
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,519

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $241	-5% $207	+0% $173	+5% $140	+10% $106
Rent	-10% $36	-5% $105	+0% $173	+5% $242	+10% $311
Rate	-1.0pp $233	-0.5pp $204	base $173	+0.5pp $143	+1.0pp $111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1206 Hi Stirrup Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,200	$0.96	44d	1	0.05mi
1210 Hi Stirrup #209 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,500	$1.20	44d	1	0.07mi
106 Dawn #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,600	$1.47	24d	1	0.11mi
906 Hi Cir N Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1001	$1,250	$1.25	44d	1	0.38mi
400 Hi There #101 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,900	$1.64	44d	1	0.57mi
307 Poker Chip Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,995	$1.72	24d	1	0.61mi
300 Out Yonder #172 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1321	$1,275	$0.97	44d	1	0.66mi
412 Short Circuit #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1333	$1,650	$1.24	44d	1	0.74mi
400 Green Leaf Unit 319-202 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1141	$1,349	$1.18	24d	1	0.87mi
400 Green Leaf Horseshoe Bay, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,349	$1.40	24d	2	0.87mi
100 Bay Point Dr #7 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$2,150	$1.73	11d	1	0.99mi
100 Bay Point Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$1,950	$1.57	13d	1	0.99mi
200 Full Moon Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1171	$1,800	$1.54	13d	1	1.04mi
104 Cove E #107 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	24d	1	1.04mi
101 W Bank #14 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$3,500	$2.60	44d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $330 · $3,960/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $119,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 36 DOM
17. 1998-05-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,354 · $196/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,354 · $196/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,859
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$2,354
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,669
• − Management: −$1,669
• − HOA: −$3,960
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $485
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$116
• After-tax cash flow: $1,965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horseshoe Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #625
• US rank: #11913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bay, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 7,591
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,354 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.