Robin 34NMTR3CG Plan · Killeen, TX 76542

$200,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Farmhouse-style 3-4 bedroom homes at Turnbo Ranch in Killeen, TX. Spacious lots, 3-car garages, and open-concept living. Priced from the mid $200s.

Key facts

• Listed 12 days

🏗️ New construction. The $200,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $277,294.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-447 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (7.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#853 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime D-.
• Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Saegert El (math 33% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 954 students, 57% FRL); Charles E Patterson Middle (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #717 of 1,662 statewide, top 44%, 1,003 students, 56% FRL); C E Ellison H S (math 20% / reading 51%, grade F, #941 of 1,632 statewide, top 58%, 1,682 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 1104 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $185,975 (7.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.91%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,294
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -27.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
177 Arvil Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,447 (+3%)	5mo	$259,900	$180	76
118 Ellenora Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,415 (+1%)	8mo	$272,225	$192	75
141 Arvil Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-3%)	5mo	$256,800	$190	74
337 Dobson	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,409 (+1%)	6mo	$269,230	$191	74
206 Hugh Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,354 (-3%)	8mo	$254,900	$188	71
114 Nettie Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,442 (+3%)	0mo	$287,900	$200	67
185 Arvil Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,266 (-10%)	8mo	$254,750	$201	64
133 Arvil Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,517 (+8%)	8mo	$269,900	$178	63
110 Hugh Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,501 (+7%)	9mo	$284,195	$189	59
141 Dewey Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (+8%)	2mo	$284,900	$189	56
206 Dora Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,605 (+15%)	7mo	$303,865	$189	36
254 Nettie Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,605 (+15%)	1mo	$306,005	$191	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-78,832
• Equity at exit: $41,345

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-126,263
• Equity at exit: $23,975

Cash invested: $77,642 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 63 active · 24 under contract
• Months of supply: 29.1 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $281,900 ($188/sqft)
• Median days on market: 68 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +5.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76542

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Rents YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 1104
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,860 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,454
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$347 /mo · $4,159/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-447

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,426

Max offer price $212,596

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-255	-5% $-351	+0% $-447	+5% $-543	+10% $-639
Rent	-10% $-594	-5% $-521	+0% $-447	+5% $-374	+10% $-300
Rate	-1.0pp $-307	-0.5pp $-377	base $-447	+0.5pp $-519	+1.0pp $-592

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,323
• Closing costs: $8,319
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
182 Arvil Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,850	$1.12	0d	1	0.23mi
182 Arvil Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,895	$1.15	2d	1	0.23mi
102 Hugh Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1705	$1,950	$1.14	2d	1	0.37mi
102 Hugh Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1705	$1,950	$1.14	5d	1	0.37mi
102 Hugh Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1705	$1,895	$1.11	0d	1	0.37mi
8905 Palmont Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1686	$1,800	$1.07	1d	1	1.01mi
3318 Aubree Katherine Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1616	$1,650	$1.02	51d	1	1.08mi
3410 Addison St Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,695	$1.19	10d	1	1.15mi
3409 Addison St Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,675	$1.24	51d	1	1.15mi
3423 Addison St Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1804	$1,850	$1.03	184d	1	1.21mi
9911 Diana Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,795	$1.08	154d	1	1.21mi
3424 Aubree Katherine Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,500	$1.10	50d	1	1.21mi
9502 Taylor Renee Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1871	$1,650	$0.88	27d	1	1.24mi
3507 Addison St Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,845	$1.46	10d	1	1.26mi
3303 Castleton Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1345	$1,595	$1.19	162d	1	1.27mi
3414 Parkmill Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1635	$1,700	$1.04	10d	1	1.28mi
3609 Pintall LN Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,495	$1.18	47d	1	1.29mi
3520 Addison St Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,795	$1.34	184d	1	1.30mi
3409 Greyfriar Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1841	$1,700	$0.92	10d	1	1.31mi
3523 Addison St Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,750	$1.27	1d	1	1.32mi
400 Hedy Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1863	$1,700	$0.91	18d	1	1.35mi
400 Hedy Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1869	$1,700	$0.91	1d	1	1.35mi
3412 Rusack Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1806	$1,600	$0.89	10d	1	1.36mi
401 Hedy Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1760	$1,825	$1.04	10d	1	1.37mi
302 Hedy Dr Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1825	$1,695	$0.93	6d	1	1.38mi
210 Viola Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1656	$1,595	$0.96	41d	1	1.41mi
210 Viola Dr Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1656	$1,595	$0.96	10d	1	1.41mi
9405 Glynhill Ct Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1637	$1,795	$1.10	154d	1	1.43mi
9600 Rogano Ct Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1614	$1,750	$1.08	10d	1	1.44mi
400 Paddock Ln Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,800	$1.11	184d	1	1.46mi
224 Brandy Loop Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,349	$0.99	10d	1	1.47mi
224 Brandy Loop Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,349	$0.99	31d	1	1.47mi
3301 Malmaison Rd Killeen, TX	4.0	2.5	1675	$1,995	$1.19	10d	1	1.48mi
3301 Malmaison Rd Killeen, TX	4.0	3.0	1675	$1,995	$1.19	46d	1	1.48mi
9509 Fratelli Ct Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1616	$1,875	$1.16	51d	1	1.49mi
9516 Fratelli Ct Killeen, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,450	$1.05	10d	1	1.49mi
406 Saddleback Trl Killeen, TX	4.0	2.0	1575	$1,695	$1.08	2d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $200,000 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $200,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $200,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $200,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,533
• − Property taxes: −$4,159
• − Insurance: −$1,386
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,785
• − Management: −$1,785
• − Depreciation: −$8,067
• Taxable loss: −$10,399
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,496
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,870/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Killeen, TX, is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It features a modern kitchen, spacious living areas, and a well-maintained exterior. The property is priced in the mid $200s and presents as move-in ready with minimal repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds modern appeal, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Saegert El F TX #1,921/4,322 Nat'l #22,595/41,679 Middle Charles E Patterson Middle F TX #717/1,662 Nat'l #6,571/14,009 High Chaparral H S

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Killeen ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825660
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,665
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6458
• State rank: #524 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Killeen

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #853
• US rank: #15359

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bell County · 371,114 people
• City population: 163,398
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 53,892
• Household income: $74,055
• Rent vs Own: 34.7% rent · 65.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

---

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 34% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 9%
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 15% Korean 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.94%
• Current HPI: 158.4385
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.85%
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B