7506 Arlo Dr Dr · Amarillo, TX 79118

$295,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,642 sqft · SingleFamily · 124 Days on market

Built 2026 $3/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 124 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-142 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (7.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Canyon ISD (town): math 60% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #78 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 276 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $240,465 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.06%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-50,559
• Equity at exit: $43,985

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-28,508
• Equity at exit: $25,506

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79118

• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 276
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,405 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,425/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,584

Max offer price $274,452

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7602 Beck Dr Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,350	$1.47	21d	1	0.09mi
7615 Arlo Dr Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1702	$2,500	$1.47	21d	1	0.10mi
7514 Beck Dr Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,350	$1.47	21d	1	0.11mi
7600 Beck Dr Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,350	$1.47	21d	1	0.11mi
7516 Beck Dr Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,350	$1.47	21d	1	0.11mi
7506 John Thomas St Amarillo, TX	4.0	2.0	1732	$3,200	$1.85	13d	1	0.19mi
7517 John Thomas St Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1642	$2,400	$1.46	44d	1	0.23mi
7206 Nick St Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1939	$2,200	$1.13	13d	1	0.67mi
7628 S Soncy Rd Amarillo, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1105	$1,750	$1.58	13d	3	0.68mi
Mosley St Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,000	$1.22	44d	1	0.81mi
6801 Mosley St Amarillo, TX	2.0	2.0	1497	$1,725	$1.15	44d	1	0.90mi
Time Sq Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1898	$2,450	$1.29	21d	1	1.26mi
9181 Town Square Blvd #1241 Amarillo, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	998	$1,678	$1.68	44d	25	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $3 · $36/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-26
   listed $295,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$4,425
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,308
• − Management: −$2,308
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$6,804
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,633
• After-tax cash flow: $-71/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canyon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812810
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $65,177
• Composite: 50.07/100
• National rank: #1912
• State rank: #78 of 826 in TX

Livability — Amarillo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11876

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Amarillo, TX
• County: Randall County · 137,351 people
• City population: 185,802
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,107
• Household income: $87,810
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 367.0

Population outlook (Randall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,140 people
• By 2030: 163,107 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 184,999 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 206,948 · +36.0%
• By 2075: 260,204 · +71.0%
• By 2100: 294,980 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 18% Black 2% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.4% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.3pp toward D · 2008: -62.7pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.8 2016: R+65.1 2012: R+68.2 2008: R+62.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.59%
• Current HPI: 162.5206
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.52%
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — AARMLS
• 2025-11-26 Listed $295,000 AARMLS