312A E Airline Blvd · Payson, AZ 85541

$239,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1979 10,018 sqft lot Est $336k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GET THAT CABINY FEEL WITH LOTS OF KNOTTY PINE PANELING, GRANITE COUNTER TOPS, AND BEAUTIFUL FIREPLACE IN THE LIVING ROOM. NEWER CABINETS IN THE BATHROOMS MAKES THIS HOME FEEL NEW. LARGE FRONT DECK AND HUGE BACK YARD WITH PRIVACY WOOD FENCE. YOU MUST SEE THIS PROPERTY TO APPRECIATE ALL THAT IT HAS TO OFFER.

Key facts

• Almost new cabinets
• Split floor plan
• Large living room

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• ALMOST NEW CABINETS
• KITCHEN DINING COMBO
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R1-10-MH; Lot about 0.23 acres (approx. 28 x 60)

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Sewer connected; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property; Facing information not provided
• Construction: Wood siding and frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Dog run; Porch; Chain link and wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Master downstairs
• Flooring: Concrete; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Master bedroom located downstairs; Fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $375 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.3% in Payson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#44 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, crime B, cost of living B; Watch: schools C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Payson Unified District (4209) (town): math 20% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #138 of 249 in AZ (top 55%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 706 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 217 units permitted in Gila County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gila County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $239k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,759 (4.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.73%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $336,000
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
308 Airline Blvd	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (-9%)	1mo	$345,000	$225	78
1102 N William Tell Cir	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,716 (+2%)	19mo	$250,000	$146	63
203 E Sherwood Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-9%)	6mo	$362,000	$237	63
1501 N Bradley Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+10%)	19mo	$369,900	$200	51
413 E Idle Cir	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	4mo	$195,000	$135	46
413 E Idle Cir	0.46mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-14%)	4mo	$195,000	$135	46
319 E Pinnacle Cir	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-14%)	16mo	$285,000	$198	44
319 W Corral Dr	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,456 (-13%)	6mo	$295,500	$203	41
800 N Granite Dr	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-13%)	9mo	$305,000	$209	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-14,927
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $17,357
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85541

• Home prices YoY: -6.6%
• Active inventory: 706
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,278 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $852/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $375

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,802

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $511	-5% $443	+0% $375	+5% $308	+10% $240
Rent	-10% $195	-5% $285	+0% $375	+5% $465	+10% $555
Rate	-1.0pp $496	-0.5pp $436	base $375	+0.5pp $313	+1.0pp $250

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
905 N Beeline Hwy Payson, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1350	$1,850	$1.37	44d	2	0.51mi
605 N Spur Dr Unit B Payson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1800	$2,400	$1.33	44d	1	0.89mi
605 N Spur Dr Payson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1800	$2,400	$1.33	44d	1	0.89mi
333 N McLane Rd Payson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1205	$2,080	$1.73	14d	2	1.27mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   status $239,000 Pending 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $239,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $239,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $852 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$725/yr (+$60/mo · 85.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,331
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$852
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,186
• − Management: −$2,186
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable income: $571
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$137
• After-tax cash flow: $4,367/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Payson Unified District (4209)
• NCES district ID: 0406070
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,440
• Composite: 22.03/100
• National rank: #8200
• State rank: #138 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Payson

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #8740

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime B Employment B- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Payson, AZ
• County: Gila County · 23,382 people
• City population: 23,382
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,382
• Household income: $66,383
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 523.0

Population outlook (Gila County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,229 people
• By 2030: 48,202 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 44,101 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 41,041 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 37,536 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 32,485 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gila

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.8% · R 68.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.8pp toward R · 2008: -27.8pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+32.4 2012: R+26.4 2008: R+27.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.4005
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Payson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+91.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $239,000 CAAR
• 2023-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $112,500 Public Records
• 2009-07-08 Sold (MLS) $139,000 ARMLS
• 2008-03-08 Listed $139,000 ARMLS
• 2007-09-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-03-03 Listed $149,900 ARMLS
• 2004-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $852 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.