1345 Rancho Villa · Walla Walla, WA
Flood risk 4/10 · Minor
- FEMA flood zone
- —
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.23%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- —
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $604 – $1,122
Heat risk 4/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 98°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 8/10 · Major
- Unhealthy air days now
- 9 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 13 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- 1% rule +8.6/10.0
- Schools +4.1/10.0
- Livability +4.0/5.0
- Rent growth +3.1/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- ARV discount +0.0/15.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$139,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
This home has a spectacular floor plan, Primary suite is located on south side of home, it is complete with large closet space and a complete bath room as part of the suite. There is a nice large family room on the south side of the home that opens to its own private covered patio. The large center area of the home is the main living room, the large dining area that holds a eight person dining room table comfortably. Large kitchen area with ample space to work without running into one another. The front section is two bedrooms and a bathroom to service those two rooms. large lot with two outdoor storage buildings.
Key facts
- Large kitchen area
- Primary suite
- Large closet space
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $583 ($7k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
- Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.3% in Walla Walla — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 79/100 on livability (#105 in WA, #2,015 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-.
- Walla Walla Public Schools (urban): math 41% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #179 of 291 in WA (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 422 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 206 units permitted in Walla Walla County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Walla Walla County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 351 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 351 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.36% ✓
- Cap rate
- 11.29%
- Cash-on-cash
- 17.86%
- DSCR
- 1.79
- GRM
- 6.1
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $107,000
- List price
- $139,900
- Delta
- 30.75%
- Verdict
- OVERPRICED
- Comps
- 15 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1320 Fort Ln | 0.28mi | 3/2.0 | 1,512 (-3%) | 6mo | $130,000 | $86 | 77 |
| 1260 Jones Dr | 0.04mi | 3/2.0 | 1,344 (-14%) | 3mo | $170,000 | $126 | 72 |
| 1328 Samuel | 0.14mi | 3/2.0 | 1,352 (-13%) | 0mo | $65,000 | $48 | 71 |
| 1252 Jones Dr | 0.03mi | 3/2.0 | 1,344 (-14%) | 7mo | $120,000 | $89 | 70 |
| 1344 Gloria Ln | 0.31mi | 3/2.0 | 1,464 (-6%) | 10mo | $190,000 | $130 | 67 |
| 1312 Rancho Villa Dr | 0.07mi | 3/2.0 | 1,352 (-13%) | 10mo | $125,000 | $92 | 66 |
| 1370 Samuel Dr | 0.32mi | 3/2.0 | 1,416 (-9%) | 6mo | $135,000 | $95 | 65 |
| 1326 Samuel Dr | 0.14mi | 3/2.0 | 1,334 (-14%) | 10mo | $57,900 | $43 | 61 |
| 1312 Gloria Ln | 0.32mi | 3/2.0 | 1,344 (-14%) | 9mo | $62,000 | $46 | 54 |
| 1372 Samuel Dr | 0.33mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,334 (-14%) | 6mo | $55,000 | $41 | 51 |
| 1358 Samuel Dr | 0.27mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,334 (-14%) | 11mo | $75,000 | $56 | 49 |
| 67 Jade St | 0.71mi | 3/2.0 | 1,344 (-14%) | 2mo | $107,000 | $80 | 42 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 2.4% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 8.7%
- Equity multiple
- 1.34×
- Total profit
- $13,318
- Equity at exit
- $20,860
- IRR
- 17.4%
- Equity multiple
- 2.40×
- Total profit
- $54,777
- Equity at exit
- $12,096
Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 28 Tenant-Leaning
- State Washington
- 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 99362
- Rents YoY
- 2.4%
- Active inventory
- 422
- Price-to-rent
- 6.1×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,906 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$734
- Tax from tax record
- −$131 /mo · $1,571/yr
- Insurance
- −$58
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$400
- Net cashflow
- $583
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $662 | -5% $623 | +0% $583 | +5% $543 | +10% $504 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $432 | -5% $508 | +0% $583 | +5% $658 | +10% $734 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $653 | -0.5pp $619 | base $583 | +0.5pp $547 | +1.0pp $510 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $34,975
- Closing costs
- $4,197
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 8 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 208 Marjorie Pl Unit marj208 Walla Walla, WA | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1080 | $1,295 | $1.20 | 44d | 1 | 0.68mi |
| 1908 Sunset Dr Unit 217 Walla Walla, WA | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1500 | $2,050 | $1.37 | 44d | 1 | 0.70mi |
| 1339 Modoc St Walla Walla, WA | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1187 | $2,195 | $1.85 | 44d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 265 Avery St Walla Walla, WA | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1268 | $1,995 | $1.57 | 44d | 1 | 0.98mi |
| 332 S 3rd Ave Walla Walla, WA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1084 | $1,630 | $1.50 | 44d | 1 | 0.99mi |
| 425 N 7th Ave Apt 2 Walla Walla, WA | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1697 | $1,795 | $1.06 | 44d | 1 | 1.23mi |
| 22 NE Hadley Way #1 College Place, WA | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1150 | $2,095 | $1.82 | 44d | 1 | 1.37mi |
| 327 E Rose St Walla Walla, WA | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 863 | $2,421 | $2.80 | 44d | 8 | 1.50mi |
Listing history 19 events
-
2026-06-19days on market $139,900 Active 351 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $139,900 Active 350 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $139,900 Active 349 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $139,900 Active 348 DOM
-
2026-06-16price $139,900 Active 347 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $149,900 Active 347 DOM
-
2026-06-14days on market $149,900 Active 345 DOM
-
2026-06-12days on market $149,900 Active 344 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $149,900 Active 341 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $149,900 Active 340 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $149,900 Active 339 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $149,900 Active 334 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $149,900 Active 333 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $149,900 Active 332 DOM
-
2026-05-30days on market $149,900 Active 331 DOM
-
2026-02-02status Active
-
2025-10-31price $149,900
-
2025-08-01price $169,900
-
2025-07-01$174,900 Active
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $1,571 · $131/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,571 · $131/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 4/10 Moderate 23% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 8/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $22,874
- − Mortgage interest
- −$7,837
- − Property taxes
- −$1,571
- − Insurance
- −$700
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,830
- − Management
- −$1,830
- − Depreciation
- −$4,070
- Taxable income
- $5,037
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,209
- After-tax cash flow
- $5,787/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Walla Walla Public Schools
- NCES district ID
- 5309450
- Math proficiency
- 41% ▲ 3.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 50% ▼ -1.00%
- Median HH income
- $46,207
- Composite
- 40.88/100
- National rank
- #7531
- State rank
- #179 of 291 in WA
Livability — Walla Walla
- Score
- 79/100
- State rank
- #105
- US rank
- #2015
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Walla Walla, WA
- County
- Walla Walla County · 52,990 people
- City population
- 42,853
- Metro
- Walla Walla, WA
- Population (ZIP)
- 42,853
- Household income
- $72,474
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1238.0
Population outlook (Walla Walla County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 63,088 people
- By 2030
- 64,417 · +2.1%
- By 2040
- 66,563 · +5.5%
- By 2050
- 68,337 · +8.3%
- By 2075
- 73,235 · +16.1%
- By 2100
- 74,878 · +18.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (69%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 69% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Asian 2% Native American 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 17%
- Common ancestry
- Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
- Foreign-born
- 9% · Canada, China
- Languages at home
- 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Chinese 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Walla Walla
- 2024 margin
- Lean R (+8.1) · D 44.6% · R 52.7% · Other 2.7%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +8.5pp toward D · 2008: -16.6pp · 2024: -8.1pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+8.1 2020: R+8.7 2016: R+16.4 2012: R+22.3 2008: R+16.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -488.03%
- Current HPI
- 321.6891
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 2.40%
- Metro
- Walla Walla, WA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.65%
- F500 in state
- 22
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Retail | 2 | $269B |
|
||
| Technology / Retail | 1 | $638B |
|
||
| Technology | 1 | $245B |
|
||
| Telecommunications | 1 | $38B |
|
||
| Food / Beverage | 1 | $36B |
|
||
| Automotive / Trucks | 1 | $34B |
|
||
Price history
-14.3% since first listed4 events — show timeline
- 2026-02-02 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-10-31 Price Changed $149,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-08-01 Price Changed $169,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-07-01 Listed $174,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
Property tax history
+84.7%/yrLatest (2026): $1,571 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…