410 New Mexico St · Houston, TX 77029

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,302 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2021 5,000 sqft lot Est $203k · 8% over ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• ARV discount +3.8/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 48504190 - Built by Ameritex Homes - Ready Now! ~ Beautiful new home for sale featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an open concept floor plan and many more modern amenities throughout. The kitchen boasts a large island with upgraded countertops and energy-efficient appliances. Private master includes ensuite bathroom and walk-in closet. Smart home technology like a programmable thermostat, keyless smart locks connected and secured through a smart home hub comes standard. All these features and more make this home is a must see! . . Images may be reflective of a staged or representative unit; homes are unfurnished and features may vary by floor plan and location.

Key facts

• Nice size pantry
• Open concept living
• 5,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• SOLID SURFACE FLOORING
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NICE SIZE PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2021; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built 2021; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Lot identified as 'Other'

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other rooms)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Kitchen open to family room; Pantry; Combined living and dining room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-359 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (28.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Galena Park ISD (suburban): math 32% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #578 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pyburn El (math 38% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 461 students, 90% FRL); Woodland Acres Middle (math 35% / reading 34%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 603 students, 85% FRL); Galena Park H S (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,914 students, 87% FRL).
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,422 (28.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.00%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $203,112
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2513 13th St	0.26mi	3/1.5	1,258 (-3%)	1mo	$139,999	$111	79
9803 Mimbrough St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+6%)	7mo	$207,000	$150	76
9721 Stedman St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,265 (-3%)	2mo	$211,000	$167	72
2204 Benson Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,242 (-5%)	1mo	$199,999	$161	67
2503 13th St	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,420 (+9%)	4mo	$221,000	$156	63
213 Armstrong St	0.63mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,281 (-2%)	4mo	$110,000	$86	58
2219 15th St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,213 (-7%)	7mo	$94,000	$77	56
2222 8th St	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,246 (-4%)	7mo	$149,950	$120	52
2515 7th St	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,171 (-10%)	2mo	$169,900	$145	50
2224 11th St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-14%)	2mo	$179,900	$161	50
328 Gans St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+12%)	4mo	$275,000	$189	46
2220 7th St	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,114 (-14%)	7mo	$179,990	$162	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $97,034
• Equity at exit: $198,103

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.94×
• Total profit: $304,061
• Equity at exit: $427,217

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77029

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,739 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$488 /mo · $5,857/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,193

Max offer price $156,422

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-235	-5% $-297	+0% $-359	+5% $-422	+10% $-484
Rent	-10% $-497	-5% $-428	+0% $-359	+5% $-291	+10% $-222
Rate	-1.0pp $-249	-0.5pp $-303	base $-359	+0.5pp $-416	+1.0pp $-474

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9821 Turnbow St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,720	$1.51	45d	1	0.33mi
253 N Carolina St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1560	$1,600	$1.03	9d	1	0.43mi
205 Bolden St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,500	$2.08	45d	1	0.59mi
403 Armstrong St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	909	$1,399	$1.54	0d	1	0.62mi
423 Armstrong St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1090	$1,499	$1.38	0d	1	0.62mi
9710 Tuffly St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,795	$1.41	26d	1	0.64mi
311 Massachusetts St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,700	$1.44	14d	1	0.81mi
9709 Cargill St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$2,300	$1.94	45d	1	0.86mi
2216 3rd St Galena Park, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,400	$0.93	45d	1	0.93mi
8534 Fillmore St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	965	$1,600	$1.66	45d	1	1.40mi
8726 Josie St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	950	$1,000	$1.05	45d	1	1.40mi
8710 Josie St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,090	$1.09	0d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 403-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $219,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,857 · $488/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,857 · $488/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,864
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$5,857
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,669
• − Management: −$1,669
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$8,146
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,955
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,357/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galena Park ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820250
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $43,158
• Composite: 27.62/100
• National rank: #6927
• State rank: #578 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,154
• Household income: $48,279
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 457.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 32% Black 22% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 66%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 61%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.53%
• Current HPI: 276.1811
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2022-10-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-09-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-09-23 Listed $238,990 HARMLS
• 1988-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+23.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,857 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.