Santa Rita Plan · Phoenix, AZ 85022

$144,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured · 28 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

55+ age qualified community. Welcome to Sunrise Heights a 55+ age-qualified active and vibrant community, where you can find yourself in your dream home. We have a stunning brand new beautiful 2026 2 bed, 2 bath home for sale featuring 1040.00 sq ft of beautifully designed living space. Located in/near Phoenix, this property offers the perfect blend of modern amenities and timeless charm. Step inside to find an open-concept floor plan, new flooring, and natural light. The kitchen is open featuring plenty of cabinet space, and with an island perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a peaceful retreat, complete with en-suite features like bathroom a

Key facts

• Premium amenities
• Covered carport
• New flooring

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• NEW FLOORING
• PLENTY OF CABINET SPACE
• COVERED CARPORT
• LOW MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING
• PREMIUM AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $144,900

Exterior

• Home design: New construction plan; Single-level plan name Santa Rita
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,040
• Exterior features: Located at 17801 N 16th St, Phoenix AZ 85022

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Santa Rita

🏗️ New construction. The $144,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $123,760.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $542 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 282 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $856 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,726 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.78%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,760
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1701 E Villa Rita Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+2%)	15mo	$132,000	$125	76
1633 E Villa Rita Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,026 (-1%)	18mo	$145,000	$141	74
1939 E Libby St	0.40mi	2/2.0	980 (-6%)	13mo	$175,000	$179	61
17827 N 19th St	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,096 (+5%)	12mo	$130,000	$119	60
18240 N 21st Dr #86	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,024 (-2%)	15mo	$75,000	$73	56
1926 E Grovers Ave	0.37mi	2/2.0	924 (-11%)	11mo	$260,000	$281	55
2140 E Michigan Ave #35	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	990 (-5%)	1mo	$98,000	$99	53
1606 E Michelle Dr #138	0.15mi	2/2.0	896 (-14%)	21mo	$52,000	$58	53
1304 E Bell Rd #79	0.48mi	2/2.0	960 (-8%)	17mo	$50,000	$52	50
1304 E Bell Rd #55	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (+8%)	15mo	$90,000	$80	47
1304 E Bell Rd #76	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (-8%)	17mo	$99,000	$103	46
2034 E Charleston Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,156 (+11%)	13mo	$276,000	$239	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $9,326
• Equity at exit: $18,453

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $32,668
• Equity at exit: $10,701

Cash invested: $34,653 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85022

• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 282
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,769 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$649
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$155 /mo · $1,856/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $542

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,083

Max offer price $123,760

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,940
• Closing costs: $3,713
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1702 E Michelle Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,200	$1.69	5d	1	0.20mi
17606 N 17th Pl Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1472	$1,999	$1.36	13d	3	0.24mi
17606 N 17th Pl Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1463	$1,999	$1.37	2d	3	0.24mi
1814 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,637	$1.63	2d	12	0.39mi
1450 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$1,555	$1.62	2d	93	0.39mi
1717 E Union Hills Dr #1052 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1160	$4,000	$3.45	44d	1	0.46mi
1750 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,349	$1.93	24d	1	0.50mi
1717 E Union Hills Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1169	$1,675	$1.43	3d	3	0.50mi
1717 E Union Hills Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1245	$1,775	$1.43	22d	4	0.50mi
1702 E Bell Rd #180 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1358	$2,000	$1.47	24d	1	0.51mi
1126 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1214	$2,450	$2.02	4d	1	0.56mi
1130 E Grovers Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	934	$1,336	$1.43	2d	12	0.56mi
1136 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1141	$1,950	$1.71	24d	1	0.57mi
18633 N 15th St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1240	$2,249	$1.81	8d	1	0.58mi
1920 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1391	$1,795	$1.29	3d	3	0.63mi
1920 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1391	$1,695	$1.22	14d	5	0.63mi
1920 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1391	$1,800	$1.29	8d	4	0.63mi
17617 N 9th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,513	$1.58	2d	35	0.64mi
2067 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	24d	1	0.66mi
1032 E Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,850	$1.69	8d	1	0.68mi
1032 E Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,850	$1.69	20d	1	0.68mi
2077 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	24d	1	0.68mi
1100 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,822	$1.85	2d	26	0.70mi
17017 N 12th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	910	$2,500	$2.75	24d	2	0.71mi
16825 N 14th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	1465	$1,675	$1.14	24d	2	0.71mi
16825 N 14th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	1465	$1,675	$1.14	3d	2	0.71mi
16875 N 12th St Unit 17 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1323	$2,200	$1.66	24d	1	0.73mi
1506 E Wescott Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1136	$2,045	$1.80	5d	1	0.75mi
815 E Grovers Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1469	$2,800	$1.91	5d	2	0.80mi
16601 N 12th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1242	$1,697	$1.37	2d	21	0.80mi
1510 E Taro Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1136	$2,149	$1.89	24d	1	0.80mi
1420 E Topeka Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,215	$1.51	8d	1	0.82mi
2150 E Bell Rd #1102 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1462	$1,945	$1.33	15d	1	0.84mi
2221 E Union Hills Dr #158 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1332	$2,100	$1.58	18d	1	0.86mi
18437 N 8th Pl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1355	$1,980	$1.46	5d	1	0.90mi
17602 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	650	$1,625	$2.50	2d	13	0.90mi
17150 N 23rd St #135 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1186	$1,900	$1.60	15d	1	0.91mi
17625 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,369	$1.48	4d	7	0.92mi
17249 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,518	$1.59	2d	37	0.95mi
17150 N 23rd St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1172	$1,712	$1.46	4d	2	0.95mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,900 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,900 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $144,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $144,900 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,900 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,900 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 10 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,229
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,932
• − Property taxes: −$1,856
• − Insurance: −$619
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,698
• − Management: −$1,698
• − Depreciation: −$3,600
• Taxable income: $4,824
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,158
• After-tax cash flow: $5,350/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2026 manufactured home in a 55+ age-qualified community is in good condition with a fresh exterior and interior. It offers a good balance of modern amenities and charm, making it a solid investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can boost curb appeal and value
• Both Interior touch-ups — Maintaining a fresh and inviting interior

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can boost curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Maintaining a fresh and inviting interior ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 53,811
• Household income: $69,927
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2976.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 10% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -329.75%
• Current HPI: 313.5085
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.21%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B