3416 Highway 1804 · Jellico, TN 40769

$87,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Other public records · 13 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Cute country home in a rural setting! New septic tank. Located across from Boston Elementary School and local volunteer fire department. Come check it out! Finishing up a few details.

Key facts

• Country home
• New septic tank
• Rural setting

Tags

• COUNTRY HOME
• RURAL SETTING
• NEW SEPTIC TANK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-442/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $82k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $79k (9.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $79k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.3% in Jellico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#352 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Whitley County (rural): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #80 of 165 in KY (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 65 units permitted in Whitley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $605 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $648 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whitley County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,912 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.92%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.74% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-7,860
• Equity at exit: $22,215

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-1,477
• Equity at exit: $24,273

Cash invested: $24,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40769

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $789 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$459
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$109 /mo · $1,312/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$166
• Net cashflow: $-37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $836

Max offer price $82,171

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $24	-5% $-7	+0% $-37	+5% $-67	+10% $-97
Rent	-10% $-99	-5% $-68	+0% $-37	+5% $-6	+10% $26
Rate	-1.0pp $7	-0.5pp $-15	base $-37	+0.5pp $-60	+1.0pp $-83

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,875
• Closing costs: $2,625
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $87,500 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $87,500 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $87,500 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $87,500 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $87,500 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $87,500 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $87,500 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $87,500 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $87,500 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 183-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $87,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,901
• − Property taxes: −$1,312
• − Insurance: −$1,104
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$758
• − Management: −$758
• − Depreciation: −$2,545
• Taxable loss: −$1,909
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$458
• After-tax cash flow: $16/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Whitley County
• NCES district ID: 2105880
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $29,079
• Composite: 27.87/100
• National rank: #6874
• State rank: #80 of 165 in KY

Livability — Jellico

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #352
• US rank: #23161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,528
• Population (ZIP): 17,931

Population outlook (Whitley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,362 people
• By 2030: 34,807 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 33,525 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 32,550 · -8.0%
• By 2075: 29,555 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 24,308 · -31.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whitley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.3) · D 14.8% · R 84.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -47.7pp · 2024: -69.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.3 2020: R+65.2 2016: R+67.2 2012: R+57.8 2008: R+47.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.74%
• Current HPI: 163.6801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $87,500 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+20.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $73 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.