304 Shawnee St · Hot Springs, AR 71901

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,395 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1970 Est $195k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 Bdrm/2Bath - Quite neighborhood, close to everything. Fenced backyard.

Key facts

• Built 1970

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($685/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.8% in Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#140 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hot Springs School District (urban): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #195 of 238 in AR (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hot Springs Junior Academy (math 20% / reading 29%, grade F, #166 of 201 statewide, top 84%, 815 students, 100% FRL, charter); Hot Springs World Class High School (math 12% / reading 24%, grade F, #252 of 292 statewide, top 87%, 739 students, 100% FRL, charter) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 72% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 366 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $175k implies a 218% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,660 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.40%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,300
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 Osage Ct	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-3%)	8mo	$200,000	$148	82
10 Grafton Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-0%)	12mo	$179,000	$129	70
201 Shawnee	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,470 (+5%)	19mo	$249,900	$170	69
416 Ridgeway St	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,312 (-6%)	2mo	$191,352	$146	68
235 Hollywood Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+2%)	10mo	$210,000	$148	63
110 Gibbs St	0.39mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,376 (-1%)	15mo	$95,000	$69	60
832 Bellaire Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+4%)	14mo	$239,900	$165	57
105 Stonehenge Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,468 (+5%)	12mo	$205,000	$140	50
236 Lowery St St	0.48mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,212 (-13%)	4mo	$112,750	$93	48
365 Ridgeway St	0.34mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,534 (+10%)	20mo	$186,000	$121	44
1 Piedmont Ct	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,207 (-14%)	20mo	$150,000	$124	42
120 Nickels St	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,216 (-13%)	14mo	$55,000	$45	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-24,785
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-17,161
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71901

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 366
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,427 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $951/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,354

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $156	-5% $107	+0% $57	+5% $8	+10% $-42
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $1	+0% $57	+5% $113	+10% $170
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $102	base $57	+0.5pp $12	+1.0pp $-34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
244 Palmetto St Hot Springs National Park, AR	4.0	2.0	1244	$1,595	$1.28	45d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $175,000
2. 1998-04-24
   soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $951 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,120 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$169/yr (+$14/mo · 17.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$951
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,370
• − Management: −$1,370
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,340
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$562
• After-tax cash flow: $1,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hot Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 0507890
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $28,817
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8746
• State rank: #195 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hot Springs

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #12498

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hot Springs, AR
• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• City population: 76,414
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 28,937
• Household income: $53,514
• Rent vs Own: 37.1% rent · 62.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 961.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.75%
• Current HPI: 317.2542
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+218.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $175,000 FSBO.com
• 1998-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $951 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.