2310 38th St · Lubbock, TX 79412

$114,980

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,418 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1951 6,625 sqft lot $81/sqft · 8% below area Est $125k · 8% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,625 sq ft lot
• Built 1951
• Listed 100 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,631 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.29%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,227
• List price: $114,980
• Delta: -8.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2619 44th St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,460 (+3%)	13mo	$199,000	$136	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-8,498
• Equity at exit: $17,144

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $8,805
• Equity at exit: $9,941

Cash invested: $32,194 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79412

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,206 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,921/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,027

Max offer price $114,980

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,745
• Closing costs: $3,449
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2403 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1786	$1,700	$0.95	44d	1	0.10mi
2217 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1284	$1,109	$0.86	14d	1	0.12mi
2215 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,450	$0.92	44d	1	0.12mi
2408 35th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1072	$995	$0.93	21d	1	0.22mi
2506 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,550	$1.47	21d	1	0.24mi
2508 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,700	$1.14	44d	1	0.25mi
2108 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1124	$900	$0.80	44d	1	0.26mi
2107 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1025	$800	$0.78	44d	1	0.29mi
2211 33rd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1293	$1,200	$0.93	44d	1	0.32mi
2315 32nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	21d	1	0.35mi
2521 40th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	902	$1,195	$1.32	21d	1	0.35mi
2514 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	943	$950	$1.01	14d	1	0.37mi
2521 41st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	990	$925	$0.93	44d	1	0.38mi
2616 37th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	21d	1	0.42mi
2605 41st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	882	$995	$1.13	14d	1	0.42mi
2411 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1003	$1,000	$1.00	21d	1	0.42mi
2400 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,225	$1.21	14d	23	0.43mi
2103 33rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1075	$700	$0.65	14d	1	0.43mi
2419 31st St Apt B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	878	$795	$0.91	14d	1	0.43mi
2119 32nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1055	$950	$0.90	44d	1	0.44mi
2504 44th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	939	$995	$1.06	44d	1	0.44mi
2609 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,550	$1.06	21d	1	0.44mi
2513 43rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	44d	1	0.45mi
2513 43rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	14d	1	0.45mi
1919 34th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1463	$1,100	$0.75	14d	1	0.46mi
2430 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,450	$0.91	44d	1	0.48mi
2106 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1398	$695	$0.50	21d	1	0.50mi
2106 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1398	$925	$0.66	44d	1	0.50mi
2712 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1136	$1,300	$1.14	44d	1	0.51mi
2402 46th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	942	$745	$0.79	21d	1	0.51mi
2406 46th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	943	$775	$0.82	21d	1	0.51mi
2412 46th St Apt A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	945	$795	$0.84	21d	1	0.52mi
2416 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1746	$1,425	$0.82	21d	1	0.52mi
2420 30th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1092	$1,100	$1.01	21d	1	0.53mi
2003 32nd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1228	$1,150	$0.94	44d	1	0.53mi
2607 44th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	988	$1,325	$1.34	44d	1	0.55mi
2611 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	44d	1	0.57mi
2316 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,400	$1.09	21d	1	0.57mi
1920 44th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1391	$795	$0.57	21d	1	0.58mi
2801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,700	$1.87	44d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,980 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,980 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,980 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,980 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $114,980 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,980 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $114,980 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,980 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,980 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,980 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $114,980 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,980 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,980 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,980 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,980 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $114,980 Active 81 DOM
17. 2026-04-09
    price $114,980
18. 2026-03-10
    listed $124,980 Active
19. 2013-03-18
    soldstatus
20. 2005-12-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,921 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$183/yr (+$15/mo · 9.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,475
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,441
• − Property taxes: −$1,921
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,158
• − Management: −$1,158
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$123
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$29
• After-tax cash flow: $1,733/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,018
• Household income: $48,878
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 676.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 25% White 25% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.95%
• Current HPI: 188.4033
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.87%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $114,980 LARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $124,980 LARMLS
• 2013-03-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,921 · -7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.