3518 Westbrook Rd · Hopewell, VA 23860

$220,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1980 0.32 ac lot Est $267k · 18% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Renovated tri-level home in North Prince George near Fort Gregg-Adams. Offers 4 bedrooms, 2 updated baths, open kitchen with island, laminate floors, and large backyard with gazebo. Sold As-Is. Subject to third-party approval.

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1980

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $157 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.2% in Hopewell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#224 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Prince George County Public School District (rural): math 67% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #16 of 131 in VA (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.9%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 72 units permitted in Prince George County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Prince George County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $220k implies a 341% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 47% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,332 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.06%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $267,456
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5107 Cheshire Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,344 (0%)	3mo	$268,000	$199	84
1401 Old Iron Rd	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,406 (+5%)	3mo	$280,000	$199	68
3310 Hampton Ave	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,349 (+0%)	7mo	$259,000	$192	62
3802 Brandywine Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,151 (-14%)	1mo	$287,000	$249	60
5206 Berkshire Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,484 (+10%)	2mo	$337,000	$227	56
4000 Brandywine Dr	0.18mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,151 (-14%)	9mo	$219,000	$190	55
3917 London Rd	0.50mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,414 (+5%)	11mo	$218,000	$154	54
1311 Dinwiddie Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (+4%)	10mo	$285,000	$204	52
3813 Lafayette St	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,224 (-9%)	0mo	$274,500	$224	52
3614 Madison St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,254 (-7%)	8mo	$150,000	$120	50
3516 Virginia St	0.66mi	3/0.5 (-1)	1,218 (-9%)	2mo	$155,000	$127	43
4007 Old Iron Rd	0.39mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,151 (-14%)	12mo	$224,000	$195	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-15,498
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $45,625
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23860

• Home prices YoY: -22.0%
• Rents YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,933 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,735

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $282	-5% $219	+0% $157	+5% $95	+10% $32
Rent	-10% $4	-5% $81	+0% $157	+5% $233	+10% $310
Rate	-1.0pp $268	-0.5pp $213	base $157	+0.5pp $100	+1.0pp $42

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4001 London Rd North Prince George, VA	3.0	1.5	1414	$2,300	$1.63	11d	1	0.47mi
4001 London Rd North Prince George, VA	3.0	1.5	1414	$2,300	$1.63	3d	1	0.47mi
5000 Owens Way Prince George, VA	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1106	$2,850	$2.58	3d	25	0.72mi
3502 Oaklawn Blvd Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	1124	$1,850	$1.65	22d	1	0.74mi
3309 Carlisle Ave Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,395	$1.21	22d	1	0.74mi
3500 Oaklawn Blvd Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	18d	1	0.74mi
4750 Baileys Ridge Dr Prince George, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1028	$1,490	$1.45	3d	4	0.74mi
3314 Granby St Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	1469	$1,600	$1.09	25d	1	0.80mi
2958 Winston Churchill Dr Hopewell, VA	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,795	$1.14	25d	1	1.19mi
3200 Saint Charles St Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.5	1272	$1,595	$1.25	45d	1	1.23mi
1004 Sunnyside Ave Hopewell, VA	4.0	2.0	875	$1,737	$1.99	5d	1	1.33mi
1900 Arlington Rd Hopewell, VA	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,695	$1.39	45d	1	1.34mi
1206 Tabb Ave Hopewell, VA	3.0	1.0	974	$1,470	$1.51	45d	1	1.41mi
3568 Perrins Hill Way Prince George, VA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,200	$1.47	3d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-12-20
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-17
   listed $220,000 Active
3. 1986-05-02
   soldstatus $49,900
4. 1980-09-04
   soldstatus $38,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,500 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,804 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$304/yr (+$25/mo · 20.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 47% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,856
• − Management: −$1,856
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$1,835
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$440
• After-tax cash flow: $2,324/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince George County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103090
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $63,354
• Composite: 61.44/100
• National rank: #759
• State rank: #16 of 131 in VA

Livability — Hopewell

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #7437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hopewell City · 31,404 people
• City population: 31,404
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 31,404
• Household income: $62,141
• Rent vs Own: 36.8% rent · 63.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1055.0

Population outlook (Prince George County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,946 people
• By 2030: 48,155 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 54,455 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 61,115 · +36.0%
• By 2075: 78,510 · +74.7%
• By 2100: 85,572 · +90.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 42% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince George

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 38.9% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+17.2 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+9.8 2008: R+10.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.28%
• Current HPI: 302.6343
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.86%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+471.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-20 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-12-17 Listed $220,000 CVRMLS
• 1986-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records
• 1980-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $38,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,500 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.