4930 La Ceiba Dr · Bellview, FL 32526

$189,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 972 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1971 9,814 sqft lot $195/sqft · at area comps Est $193k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in a quiet neighborhood off Muldoon Road, Privacy fenced in yard, tree shaded lot plus good schools. Vacant.

Key facts

• 9,814 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1971

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($338/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.2% in Bellview — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#561 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 417 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $190k implies a 475% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,781 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.64%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,812
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -1.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4881 La Ceiba Dr	0.11mi	3/1.5	972 (0%)	8mo	$118,500	$122	86
5705 Ventura Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,043 (+7%)	12mo	$215,000	$206	58
4827 Sierra Dr	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,040 (+7%)	4mo	$145,000	$139	52
4845 Sierra Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0	989 (+2%)	16mo	$156,000	$158	50
4670 Poinciana Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	948 (-2%)	17mo	$175,000	$185	46
4675 Oakland Dr	0.55mi	3/1.0	864 (-11%)	8mo	$155,000	$179	46
4817 Sharritt Ln	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (+1%)	23mo	$165,000	$168	37
7866 Lenora Ct	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,101 (+13%)	12mo	$187,000	$170	35
4660 Durham Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0	864 (-11%)	17mo	$111,000	$128	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-26,688
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-11,248
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32526

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 417
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,598 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$159 /mo · $1,910/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,562

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $82	+0% $28	+5% $-26	+10% $-79
Rent	-10% $-98	-5% $-35	+0% $28	+5% $91	+10% $154
Rate	-1.0pp $124	-0.5pp $76	base $28	+0.5pp $-21	+1.0pp $-71

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4930 Laceiba Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.5	1020	$1,300	$1.27	21d	1	0.03mi
7318 Hayward Ave Unit P30 P30 Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,200	$1.20	24d	1	0.48mi
5404 N Blue Angel Pkwy Pensacola, FL	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,275	$1.14	24d	1	0.68mi
7135 Pearson Rd Unit 7 Pensacola, FL	2.0	2.0	902	$1,125	$1.25	24d	1	0.85mi
6225 Mobile Hwy Pensacola, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1036	$2,595	$2.50	14d	15	1.29mi
5207 Charbar Dr Unit B Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	24d	1	1.44mi
5472 Dover Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	840	$1,300	$1.55	24d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-14
   price $1,300
2. 2026-04-24
   price $189,900 116-char remark

   Show marketing remark (116 chars)

   Located in a quiet neighborhood off Muldoon Road, Privacy fenced in yard, tree shaded lot plus good schools. Vacant.

3. 2026-04-07
   listed $205,000 Active 116-char remark

   Show marketing remark (116 chars)

   Located in a quiet neighborhood off Muldoon Road, Privacy fenced in yard, tree shaded lot plus good schools. Vacant.

4. 2026-04-04
   price $1,350
5. 2026-03-11
   price $1,400
6. 2026-01-13
   listed $1,500
7. 2026-01-13
   historical $1,500
8. 2026-01-12
   listed $1,500
9. 2014-02-07
   historical
10. 2012-01-09
    listed $85,000
11. 1990-10-01
    soldstatus $33,000
12. 1990-09-01
    soldstatus $30,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,910 · $159/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,910 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$1,910
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,534
• − Management: −$1,534
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$2,915
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$700
• After-tax cash flow: $1,037/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bellview

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #561
• US rank: #10731

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellview, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,680
• Household income: $75,098
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1166.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 19% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.68%
• Current HPI: 252.6406
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.42%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-95.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $1,300 TENANTTURNER2
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $189,900 PARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $205,000 PARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $1,350 TENANTTURNER2
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $1,400 TENANTTURNER2
• 2026-01-13 Listed for Rent $1,500 TENANTTURNER2
• 2026-01-13 Rental Removed $1,500 APPFOLIO
• 2026-01-12 Listed for Rent $1,500 APPFOLIO
• 2014-02-07 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2012-01-09 Listed $85,000 PARMLS
• 1990-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records
• 1990-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,910 · +17.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.