1661 Old Country Rd #308 · Calverton, NY 11901

$129,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 253 Days on market

Built 1972 $154/sqft · 31% below area Est $186k · 31% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Glenwood Village, 55+ Senior Community in Riverhead. Must see, newly renovated. Low taxes $990/year. 2bedrooms with 1 full bath size 12X70" with additional sunroom and 2 Sheds. Central Air Condition Buyers need to be approved by the community with $20/person credit and background check with the min Fico 650. 49 Years land lease! Monthly Maintenance is $606 includes Water, Garbage removal, Use of Clubhouse, swimming pool, library. PERFECT LOCATION CLOSE TO OUTLETS AND ALL MAIN ROADS, STORES ,POST OFFICE .., Additional information: Min Age:55

Key facts

• Swimming pool
• Sunroom
• Low taxes

Tags

• NEWLY RENOVATED
• CENTRAL AIR CONDITION
• LOW TAXES
• SUNROOM
• 2 SHEDS
• SWIMMING POOL

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $129,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$185,868) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.5% vs local median 7.2% in Calverton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,053 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: crime C-, schools D, employment D.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 253 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 253 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.37%
• DSCR: 3.42
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,868
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: -30.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1661 Old Country Rd #163	0.09mi	2/1.0	816 (-3%)	2mo	$100,000	$123	89
1661 Old Country Rd #282	0.24mi	2/1.0	860 (+2%)	4mo	$150,000	$174	82
1661 Old Country Rd Unit 181 Glynwood	0.20mi	2/1.0	783 (-7%)	1mo	$235,000	$300	78
1661 Old Country Rd #25	0.21mi	2/1.0	784 (-7%)	12mo	$240,000	$306	69
1661 Old Country #423	0.20mi	2/2.0	960 (+14%)	8mo	$195,000	$203	56
1661-14 Old Country Rd	0.20mi	1/1.0 (-1)	768 (-9%)	21mo	$80,000	$104	54
433 Mill Rd #4	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+14%)	6mo	$175,000	$182	40
Old Country Old Country Rd #44	0.74mi	2/1.0	720 (-14%)	2mo	$129,000	$179	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $83,375
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.73×
• Total profit: $207,011
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $1,637

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1278 W Main St Riverhead, NY	2.0	1.0	704	$3,200	$4.55	44d	1	0.38mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 253 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 252 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 251 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 250 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 248 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 244 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 243 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,000 Active 242 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $129,000 Active 239 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 238 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 237 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 236 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 235 DOM
14. 2026-05-20
    price $129,000 552-char remark

    Show marketing remark (552 chars)

    Glenwood Village, 55+ Senior Community in Riverhead. Must see, newly renovated. Low taxes $990/year. 2bedrooms with 1 full bath size 12X70" with additional sunroom and 2 Sheds. Central Air Condition Buyers need to be approved by the community with $20/person credit and background check with the min Fico 650. 49 Years land lease! Monthly Maintenance is $606 includes Water, Garbage removal, Use of Clubhouse, swimming pool, library. PERFECT LOCATION CLOSE TO OUTLETS AND ALL MAIN ROADS, STORES ,POST OFFICE .., Additional information: Min Age:55

15. 2025-10-08
    listed $149,000 Active 552-char remark

    Show marketing remark (552 chars)

    Glenwood Village, 55+ Senior Community in Riverhead. Must see, newly renovated. Low taxes $990/year. 2bedrooms with 1 full bath size 12X70" with additional sunroom and 2 Sheds. Central Air Condition Buyers need to be approved by the community with $20/person credit and background check with the min Fico 650. 49 Years land lease! Monthly Maintenance is $606 includes Water, Garbage removal, Use of Clubhouse, swimming pool, library. PERFECT LOCATION CLOSE TO OUTLETS AND ALL MAIN ROADS, STORES ,POST OFFICE .., Additional information: Min Age:55

16. 2025-10-07
    historical
17. 2025-08-24
    price $149,000
18. 2025-06-23
    price $165,000
19. 2025-04-21
    price $179,000
20. 2024-10-24
    price $189,000
21. 2024-10-07
    listed $139,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,072
• − Management: −$3,072
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $18,697
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,487
• After-tax cash flow: $15,151/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Calverton

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1053
• US rank: #20908

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C- Employment D Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calverton, NY
• City population: 6,784
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-7.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $129,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Listed $149,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-24 Price Changed $149,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $165,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-21 Price Changed $179,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-24 Price Changed $189,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-07 Listed $139,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid