4135 Misty Ln · Paris, TX 75462

$30,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,032 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1982 9,409 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Unique opportunity in the heart of the established and family-friendly Morningside neighborhood in Paris, Texas. This property is being offered for its land and materials salvage value following a fire that impacted the current structure. The existing home is a total loss and will convey As-is with no repairs or warranties. This spacious, level, corner lot features several impressive trees that provide natural shade, privacy, and landscaping potential. The mature canopy creates a park-like setting while offering plenty of room for new plans. Existing fire-damaged structure remains for buyer to salvage bricks and any other building materials. The backyard includes a storm cellar and an older

Key facts

• Privacy
• Impressive trees
• Level corner lot

Tags

• LEVEL CORNER LOT
• IMPRESSIVE TREES
• NATURAL SHADE
• PRIVACY
• LANDSCAPING POTENTIAL
• MATURE CANOPY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Special taxing entities: No
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces; Alley access
• Utilities: Utilities: See remarks; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Built in 1982; Not attached to other properties
• Construction: Year built 1982
• Exterior features: Lot less than 0.5 acre (approx. 0.216 acres); Corner lot; Subdivision: Morningside; Directions: From Loop 286, take a right on Morningside Dr, Right on 42nd St SE, follow it around to Misty Lane. House is on corner of Misty and 42nd SE.

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (12 x 14) on main level; Total of 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating or cooling details listed
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; One level; One living area; Two dining areas
• Laundry & utility: No laundry/utility appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $30k).
• Cap rate 46.9% vs local median 3.6% in Paris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#984 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Paris ISD (town): math 36% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #521 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 119 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (71 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lamar County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 46.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 144.86%
• DSCR: 7.45
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $272,288
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4135 Misty Ln	0.00mi	3/3.0	2,032 (0%)	1mo	$30,000	$15	99
865 42nd St SE	0.11mi	3/2.0	2,026 (-0%)	14mo	$265,000	$131	79
3915 Misty Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,934 (-5%)	8mo	$259,500	$134	74
4015 Dawn Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	2,066 (+2%)	10mo	$299,900	$145	72
3910 Miranda Dr	0.39mi	3/2.5	2,275 (+12%)	4mo	$334,900	$147	56
4111 Primrose Ct	0.70mi	3/3.0	2,074 (+2%)	13mo	$244,900	$118	53
155 49th St SE	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,085 (+3%)	2mo	$235,000	$113	51
4230 Primrose Ln	0.65mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,110 (+4%)	8mo	$349,000	$165	51
1030 34th St SE	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,885 (-7%)	4mo	$240,000	$127	48
1195 33rd St SE	0.73mi	3/2.0	2,203 (+8%)	3mo	$244,900	$111	46
590 SE 39th St SE	0.42mi	3/2.5	2,336 (+15%)	14mo	$325,000	$139	41
4135 Primrose Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,865 (-8%)	11mo	$280,000	$150	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.11×
• Total profit: $59,747
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.11×
• Total profit: $135,284
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75462

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,546 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$38 /mo · $450/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $1,014

Break-even live

Break-even rent $262

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 29%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-11
   listed $30,000 Active
3. 2000-04-28
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,552
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$450
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,484
• − Management: −$1,484
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $12,431
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,983
• After-tax cash flow: $9,185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paris ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834290
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $31,515
• Composite: 29.83/100
• National rank: #6419
• State rank: #521 of 826 in TX

Livability — Paris

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #984
• US rank: #17535

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paris, TX
• City population: 23,426
• Population (ZIP): 11,651

Population outlook (Lamar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,319 people
• By 2030: 47,160 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 44,621 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 42,024 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 36,577 · -24.3%
• By 2100: 30,580 · -36.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.2% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.1pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+57.4 2016: R+59.2 2012: R+50.3 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.01%
• Current HPI: 200.7301
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $30,000 NTREIS
• 2000-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,642 · +21.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.