102 Village Cir · Sacramento, CA 95838

$129,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · Manufactured · 96 Days on market

Built 2001 Est $135k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 102 Village Circle, Sacramento, CA 95838 a well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in a desirable gated all-age community in North Sacramento. This inviting home features a functional open layout with abundant natural light, updated fixtures and a newer roof, offering comfort and peace of mind. The spacious living arears flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining space - ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Residents Enjoy fantastic community amenities including a swimming pool, clubhouse, playground, and pet - friendly areas. Conveniently located to schools, shopping, and with easy freeway access for commuters. An excellent opportunity for first- buyers or those

Key facts

• Gated community
• Clubhouse
• Newer roof

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• UPDATED FIXTURES
• NEWER ROOF
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• SWIMMING POOL
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: No (listed land lease amount provided separately)
• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; 220V in laundry; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Built in 2001
• Construction: Composition roof; Wood skirting; Fleetwood make
• Exterior features: Backyard; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Hood over range; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double sinks; Tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling; Skylight(s); Pantry closet; Laminate countertops; Kitchen and family room combined / dining and family room combined; Storage area (interior)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry hookups; Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $766 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 3.0% in Sacramento — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#218 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, cost of living F.
• Robla Elementary (urban): math 29% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #923 of 1,400 in CA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $895 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,845 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.36%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $135,300
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
88 Village Cir	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+2%)	0mo	$136,900	$110	95
216 Village Cir #216	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-6%)	5mo	$82,000	$71	82
152 Village Cir #152	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+9%)	8mo	$125,000	$93	76
197 Village Cir	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,142 (-7%)	22mo	$140,000	$123	62
220 Village Cir #220	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,081 (-12%)	18mo	$162,500	$150	60
62 Kit Ln	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+9%)	23mo	$110,000	$82	59
81 Village Cir	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+14%)	24mo	$212,900	$152	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $21,691
• Equity at exit: $19,309

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $58,046
• Equity at exit: $11,197

Cash invested: $36,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95838

• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,103 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$679
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,942/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $766

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,133

Max offer price $129,500

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,375
• Closing costs: $3,885
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3720 Astoria St Unit 8 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,395	$1.47	1d	1	0.62mi
4426 Dry Creek Rd Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.5	1408	$2,700	$1.92	1d	1	0.96mi
1138 North Ave Unit A Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	1d	1	1.01mi
3226 Pilgrim Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,700	$2.08	1d	1	1.10mi
3829 Belden St Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1001	$2,126	$2.12	43d	1	1.14mi
4015 May St Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	875	$1,850	$2.11	23d	1	1.16mi
3901 Cypress St Unit 921 Harris Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,950	$2.79	43d	1	1.30mi
3231 Del Mar Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	1380	$2,095	$1.52	16d	1	1.31mi
3616 Branch St Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,599	$1.88	1d	1	1.34mi
3228 Fairview Ct Apt 4 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	795	$1,395	$1.75	43d	1	1.39mi
2256 Frazier Ct Unit ADU Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	917	$2,350	$2.56	43d	1	1.43mi
3101 Truax Ct Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	667	$1,495	$2.24	7d	4	1.46mi
2503 Edison Ave Unit 2503-11 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	825	$1,600	$1.94	23d	1	1.46mi
3307 Belden St Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	768	$2,200	$2.86	1d	1	1.46mi
2253 Edison Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.0	980	$2,400	$2.45	43d	1	1.46mi
2507 Edison Ave Unit 2507-11 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	825	$1,600	$1.94	23d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $129,500 Pending 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,500 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,500 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,500 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $129,500 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $129,500 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $129,500 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $129,500 Active 87 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,234
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,254
• − Property taxes: −$1,942
• − Insurance: −$648
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,019
• − Management: −$2,019
• − Depreciation: −$3,767
• Taxable income: $7,585
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,820
• After-tax cash flow: $7,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Robla Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0633240
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,481
• Composite: 31.64/100
• National rank: #11126
• State rank: #923 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Sacramento

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #218
• US rank: #6957

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sacramento, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 761,410
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 40,677
• Household income: $68,349
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1834.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.77)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 37% White 21% Asian 18% Two or more races 15% Black 13% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Subsaharan African 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Asian/Pacific 10% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -391.80%
• Current HPI: 415.1804
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.74%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $211 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.