8409 Phil Pl · Vinton, TX 79821

$294,950

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,644 sqft · Land · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 6,154 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0

Key facts

• 6,154 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (8.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (28.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (28.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,135 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Canutillo ISD (other): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #542 of 826 in TX (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Canutillo El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 519 students, 82% FRL); Canutillo Middle (math 21% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 700 students, 64% FRL); Canutillo H S (math 36% / reading 41%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,642 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,000 (28.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.95%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.69% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $22,040
• Equity at exit: $127,473

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $96,393
• Equity at exit: $192,538

Cash invested: $82,586 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79821

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,480/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,270

Max offer price $271,286

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $33	-5% $-50	+0% $-134	+5% $-217	+10% $-301
Rent	-10% $-300	-5% $-217	+0% $-134	+5% $-51	+10% $32
Rate	-1.0pp $15	-0.5pp $-59	base $-134	+0.5pp $-210	+1.0pp $-288

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,738
• Closing costs: $8,848
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
355 Sol Ct Vinton, TX	4.0	3.0	1932	$2,100	$1.09	24d	1	0.52mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   listed $294,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,480 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,398 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,918/yr (+$326/mo · 264.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,522
• − Property taxes: −$1,480
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,016
• − Management: −$2,016
• − Depreciation: −$8,580
• Taxable loss: −$6,889
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,653
• After-tax cash flow: $46/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canutillo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812780
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,327
• Composite: 28.91/100
• National rank: #6636
• State rank: #542 of 826 in TX

Livability — Vinton

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1135
• US rank: #20035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vinton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,550

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 88% Two or more races 28% White 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 78%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 25% English-only · Spanish 74%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.69%
• Current HPI: 207.1199
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Pending — GEPARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $294,950 GEPARMLS