4454 Greenshank Way · Rancho Cordova, CA 95742

$549,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,900 sqft · SingleFamily · 337 Days on market

Built 2024 5,079 sqft lot $289/sqft · 6% below area Est $585k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.7/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing a beautifully crafted, never-lived-in Lennar model home that sets a new benchmark for elevated living in Rancho Cordova, offering 1,900 sq. ft. of refined interior space. Thoughtfully designed for both luxury and function, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath residence features a private downstairs primary suite with a full bath, ideal for multigenerational living or added comfort. The main level showcases durable laminate flooring and abundant natural light, creating a bright, airy ambiance. The gourmet kitchen is appointed with granite countertops, sleek white cabinetry, and premium Frigidaire appliances, including an electric stove and refrigerator. Custom wall accents add a curated, des

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Granite countertops
• 5,079 sq ft lot

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (44.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $329k (40.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $306k (44.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: commute C-, crime D, cost of living F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary (math 65% / reading 67%, grade B+, #176 of 1,571 statewide, top 11%, 966 students, 21% FRL); Katherine L. Albiani Middle (math 55% / reading 67%, grade B+, #57 of 498 statewide, top 12%, 1,307 students, 27% FRL); Pleasant Grove High (math 57% / reading 74%, grade B, #157 of 1,170 statewide, top 14%, 2,520 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 43% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Elk Grove Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 471 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $59k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $55k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$95k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 337 days — a 12% lower offer ($484k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $306,213 (44.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 337 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.75%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $585,337
• List price: $549,999
• Delta: -6.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4454 Greenshank Way	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,900 (0%)	0mo	$515,000	$271	100
4622 Duckhawk Cir	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,873 (-1%)	1mo	$590,000	$315	92
4587 Duckhawk Cir	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,944 (+2%)	1mo	$574,999	$296	88
4414 Hawkfinch Cir	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,876 (-1%)	4mo	$599,000	$319	87
4450 Greenshank Way	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,691 (-11%)	3mo	$540,000	$319	76
4401 Canyon Coral Way	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,842 (-3%)	3mo	$549,990	$299	72
12713 Mission Peak Way	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,054 (+8%)	1mo	$625,000	$304	62
4387 Arctic Tern Cir	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,185 (+15%)	0mo	$638,000	$292	60
4428 Canyon Coral Way	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,673 (-12%)	3mo	$579,990	$347	58
4356 Arctic Tern Cir	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,185 (+15%)	0mo	$610,000	$279	58
4457 Bran St	0.55mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,076 (+9%)	2mo	$535,990	$258	50
4464 Bran St	0.58mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,076 (+9%)	1mo	$575,000	$277	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $208,789
• Equity at exit: $495,483

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $678,385
• Equity at exit: $1,068,527

Cash invested: $154,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95742

• Home prices YoY: 28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 471
• Price-to-rent: 13.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,295 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$869 /mo · $10,432/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$692
• Net cashflow: $-1,380

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,041

Max offer price $306,213

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,069	-5% $-1,224	+0% $-1,380	+5% $-1,536	+10% $-1,691
Rent	-10% $-1,640	-5% $-1,510	+0% $-1,380	+5% $-1,250	+10% $-1,120
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,103	-0.5pp $-1,240	base $-1,380	+0.5pp $-1,523	+1.0pp $-1,668

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,500
• Closing costs: $16,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4454 Greenshank Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	1900	$2,795	$1.47	0d	1	0.03mi
12658 Rosefinch Way Unit 1 Rancho Cordova, CA	5.0	3.5	2466	$2,800	$1.14	0d	1	0.13mi
4480 Arctic Tern Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	2550	$3,000	$1.18	45d	1	0.16mi
12647 Spotted Wren Way Rancho Cordova, CA	5.0	3.0	2609	$3,450	$1.32	45d	1	0.23mi
4328 Greenshank Cir Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.0	1800	$3,100	$1.72	45d	1	0.27mi
4430 Lorikeet Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	2520	$3,100	$1.23	45d	1	0.31mi
4143 Cahakia Pl Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,795	$1.69	45d	1	1.00mi
12153 Coal Creek Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1906	$2,750	$1.44	16d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2024-08-30
   soldstatus $582,500
2. 2024-06-10
   soldstatus $4,025,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,432 · $869/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,432 · $869/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,535
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,808
• − Property taxes: −$10,432
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,163
• − Management: −$3,163
• − Depreciation: −$16,000
• Taxable loss: −$26,781
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,427
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rancho Cordova

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #9126

Category grades

Amenities C Commute C- Cost of living F Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Cordova, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 98,329
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,768
• Household income: $155,855
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 28% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.05%
• Current HPI: 236.1388
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-85.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $582,500 Public Records
• 2024-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $4,025,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+257.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,432 · +84.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.