429 18th St · Niagara Falls, NY 14303

$124,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1924 3,420 sqft lot $72/sqft · 9% below area Est $138k · 9% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.3/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Excellent investment, long term tenants want to stay. Property offers separate utilities for each unit. 1st floor unit has central air. 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom in each. Both units have their own covered front porch for relaxing and enjoying the outdoors. Other features are a full attic, full basement, washing facilities and a 2 car garage. Very low outdoor maintenance, backyard is concrete pad for large patio.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Washing facilities
• Concrete pad

Tags

• CENTRAL AIR
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FULL ATTIC
• FULL BASEMENT
• WASHING FACILITIES
• CONCRETE PAD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Two rental units with rents reported at $650 and $900 (both month-to-month)
• Financial info: Two separate electric meters; Two separate gas meters; Owner pays grounds care, garage, snow removal, trash collection and water; Rent includes common area maintenance, gardener, parking, snow removal, trash collection and water; Operating expenses: see remarks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces); Garage parking
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electrical service
• Home design: Two-story multifamily (2-unit) residence; Residential 2-unit zoning; Existing property condition
• Construction: Aluminum siding and brick exterior; Copper plumbing; Asphalt roof; Poured foundation; Built (existing structure)
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch(es); Awnings; Partial fencing; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen(s); Oven/range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Laminate; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one per unit)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full basement; Varied floor coverings including carpet, ceramic tile, hardwood, laminate and vinyl
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $872 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.7% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 74 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,328/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 230% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $125k implies a 257% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1924 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $123,026 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1924 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.91%
• DSCR: 2.33
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,612
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -9.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
420 18th St	0.03mi	4/2.5	1,632 (-6%)	3mo	$115,000	$70	85
2421 Welch Ave	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+2%)	11mo	$170,000	$97	69
614 20th St	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,570 (-9%)	1mo	$100,000	$64	69
541 20th St	0.25mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,917 (+11%)	1mo	$112,000	$58	64
1968 Cudaback Ave	0.30mi	4/3.0	1,848 (+7%)	8mo	$20,000	$11	64
346 Portage Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,940 (+12%)	4mo	$142,500	$73	61
555 25th St	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,619 (-6%)	7mo	$128,000	$79	61
2491 Cudaback Ave	0.59mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,728 (0%)	9mo	$77,000	$45	60
2254 Grand Ave	0.55mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,748 (+1%)	8mo	$149,000	$85	60
2615 Ferry Ave	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,848 (+7%)	6mo	$115,000	$62	59
746 17th St	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,475 (-15%)	1mo	$72,000	$49	52
2449 Grand Ave	0.60mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,918 (+11%)	4mo	$135,000	$70	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $35,371
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.94×
• Total profit: $102,683
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14303

• Home prices YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,328 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$261 /mo · $3,126/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $872

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 58%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,328
Total (2 units)			$2,328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1427 Fort Ave Unit 2 Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1058	$950	$0.90	43d	1	0.18mi
420 25th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	0.42mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	1d	1	0.51mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	3d	1	0.57mi
1001 17th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	23d	1	0.59mi
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	16d	1	0.59mi
724 Augustus Pl Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	43d	1	0.73mi
3225 Belden Pl Niagara Falls, NY	5.0	1.5	1344	$1,750	$1.30	1d	1	0.98mi
642 Ashland Ave Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1238	$1,100	$0.89	3d	1	1.07mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-05
   price $124,900 412-char remark
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $139,900 Active 412-char remark
3. 2026-02-20
   price $129,900
4. 2025-12-16
   price $134,900
5. 2025-10-23
   listed $139,900 Active
6. 2018-06-27
   soldstatus $35,000 Closed Sale or Rented
7. 2018-06-19
   soldstatus $35,000
8. 2018-04-26
   status Pending Sale
9. 2018-03-22
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show
10. 2018-03-10
    listed $39,900 Active
11. 2007-10-30
    soldstatus $31,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,126 · $261/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,126 · $261/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$3,126
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,235
• − Management: −$2,235
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $9,086
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,181
• After-tax cash flow: $8,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,156
• Household income: $45,646
• Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 230.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Two or more races 18% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 12% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.37%
• Current HPI: 311.8094
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+302.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $124,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $139,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $129,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $134,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-10-23 Listed $139,900 WNYREIS
• 2018-06-27 Sold (MLS) $35,000 WNYREIS
• 2018-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-26 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-03-22 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2018-03-10 Listed $39,900 WNYREIS
• 2007-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $31,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,126 · +19.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.