Archer II Plan · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$315,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · SingleFamily · 138 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Archer II, a thoughtfully designed single-story home offering the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and modern style. Upon entry, you're welcomed into a spacious foyer leading to two well-sized bedrooms and a full bathroom, perfect for guests or a growing family. The open-concept kitchen features a large island with seating, quartz countertops, and a generous walk-in pantry-all overlooking the bright great room and cozy dining area, ideal for entertaining. The primary bedroom is tucked away at the rear of the home and features a large walk-in closet and en-suite bath with dual sinks and quartz countertops. Enjoy indoor-outdoor living with a rear patio accessed through

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Rear patio
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND WITH SEATING
• GENEROUS WALK-IN PANTRY
• REAR PATIO
• LAUNDRY ROOM WITH HOOKUPS
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active; Last modified: 2026-05-25
• Financial info: List price $315,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan; Single-story (Plan)
• Exterior features: Address: Archer II Plan, Parrish, FL 34219

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area of 1328; Plan: Archer II

🏗️ New construction. The $315,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $298,800.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $316k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($819/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($278k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $270,020 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.98%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $298,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17929 Wheat Stack Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,328 (0%)	0mo	$314,000	$236	71
17917 Wheat Stack Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,328 (0%)	1mo	$314,000	$236	70
17947 Wheat Stack Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,328 (0%)	2mo	$329,000	$248	70
17415 Whiskey Creek Trl	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+13%)	3mo	$315,560	$210	69
17411 Whiskey Creek Trl	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+13%)	4mo	$319,225	$212	68
17404 Whiskey Creek Trl	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+13%)	6mo	$332,350	$221	68
17427 Whiskey Creek Trl	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+13%)	3mo	$317,500	$211	68
17423 Whiskey Creek Trl	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+13%)	4mo	$337,740	$225	68
17412 Whiskey Creek Trl	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+13%)	6mo	$334,500	$222	68
17397 Whiskey Creek Trl	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+13%)	7mo	$339,265	$226	67
17909 Wheat Stack Ct	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (+13%)	1mo	$329,000	$220	44
17921 Wheat Stack Ct	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,498 (+13%)	1mo	$339,000	$226	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-51,946
• Equity at exit: $44,552

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-70,055
• Equity at exit: $25,835

Cash invested: $83,664 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,567
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,482/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,614

Max offer price $298,800

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,700
• Closing costs: $8,964
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16823 Destrehen Ct Parrish, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$2,490	$1.43	3d	1	0.54mi
923 Hagle Park Rd Unit 925 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,175	$1.98	20d	1	1.27mi
15769 High Bell Pl Bradenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,500	$1.37	14d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,990 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,990 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,990 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,990 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,990 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,990 Active 132 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $315,990 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,990 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,990 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $315,990 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,990 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,990 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,990 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,990 Active 120 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,402
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,737
• − Property taxes: −$4,482
• − Insurance: −$1,494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
• − Management: −$2,592
• − Depreciation: −$8,692
• Taxable loss: −$4,188
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,005
• After-tax cash flow: $1,824/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B