10529 Junco Rd · Fort Worth, TX 76140

$247,149

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · Other · 34 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $247k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($975/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Everman ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #691 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John And Polly Townley El (math 15% / reading 21%, grade F, #3,785 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 365 students, 95% FRL); Charles Baxter J H (math 19% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,200 of 1,662 statewide, top 73%, 769 students, 94% FRL); Everman H S (math 15% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 1,740 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 77% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 390 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($240k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $197,784 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.41%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-40,572
• Equity at exit: $36,851

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-50,758
• Equity at exit: $21,369

Cash invested: $69,202 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76140

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 390
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,978 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,296
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $986/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,875

Max offer price $247,149

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $221	-5% $151	+0% $81	+5% $11	+10% $-59
Rent	-10% $-75	-5% $3	+0% $81	+5% $159	+10% $238
Rate	-1.0pp $206	-0.5pp $144	base $81	+0.5pp $17	+1.0pp $-48

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,787
• Closing costs: $7,414
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1680 Crested Way Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,895	$1.34	14d	1	0.13mi
1644 Limpkin Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,860	$1.33	45d	1	0.14mi
1633 Limpkin Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,905	$1.50	45d	1	0.18mi
1616 Limpkin Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,980	$1.24	26d	1	0.21mi
1617 Crested Way Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,200	$1.56	45d	1	0.22mi
1612 Limpkin Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,925	$1.36	45d	1	0.22mi
1508 Pine Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	1.0	1098	$1,599	$1.46	45d	1	0.35mi
1461 Pine Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,739	$1.37	9d	1	0.39mi
1452 Pine Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	1.5	1098	$1,595	$1.45	22d	1	0.40mi
1437 Pine Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1175	$1,800	$1.53	45d	1	0.42mi
1433 Pine Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	3.0	1316	$2,075	$1.58	45d	1	0.43mi
1432 Silver Oak Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	1550	$2,143	$1.38	26d	1	0.43mi
1424 Pine Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1332	$1,590	$1.19	14d	1	0.44mi
1800 Oak Grove Rd E Burleson, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1392	$1,795	$1.29	0d	14	0.44mi
1408 Silver Spruce Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,800	$1.28	20d	1	0.47mi
10716 Wild Oak Dr Fort Worth, TX	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,595	$1.49	22d	1	0.50mi
10628 Wild Oak Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1312	$1,740	$1.33	5d	1	0.51mi
10745 Many Oaks Dr Fort Worth, TX	2.0	1.0	997	$1,595	$1.60	26d	1	0.52mi
10213 S Race St Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1819	$1,961	$1.08	23d	1	0.54mi
1421 Castle Ridge Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,815	$1.43	0d	1	0.64mi
1412 Royal Meadows Trl Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,779	$1.13	4d	1	0.69mi
1300 Hazelnut Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,300	$1.59	7d	1	0.76mi
1500 Four Seasons Ln Fort Worth, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	876	$1,400	$1.60	23d	1	0.92mi
1456 Palamedes Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,000	$1.52	6d	1	0.97mi
1312 Nelson Pl Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,820	$1.48	45d	1	0.97mi
10613 Flamewood Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1324	$1,550	$1.17	45d	1	1.01mi
10525 Flamewood Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,849	$1.28	4d	1	1.02mi
1421 Sunkiss Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,995	$1.24	3d	1	1.03mi
1324 Sierra Blanca Dr Burleson, TX	3.0	2.0	1541	$2,000	$1.30	45d	1	1.04mi
10640 Towerwood Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$1,696	$1.19	9d	1	1.07mi
1401 Sunkiss Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,095	$1.31	14d	1	1.08mi
10632 Towerwood Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,750	$1.27	26d	1	1.08mi
1540 Woodwinds Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,280	$1.43	7d	1	1.09mi
9632 Sierra Grande Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,895	$1.18	45d	1	1.09mi
9609 Sierra Grande Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1754	$2,175	$1.24	9d	1	1.12mi
1505 Woodwinds Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,280	$1.43	21d	1	1.14mi
1329 Woodwinds Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$2,320	$1.29	7d	1	1.14mi
1508 Harvester Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1724	$2,328	$1.35	9d	1	1.15mi
10436 Phantom Hill Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,885	$1.26	9d	1	1.16mi
1500 Harvester Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,280	$1.43	6d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-03
   price $247,149 419-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   price $253,149 419-char remark
3. 2026-04-24
   price $255,149 419-char remark
4. 2026-04-22
   listed $284,999 Active 419-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $986 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,523 · $377/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,537/yr (+$295/mo · 358.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,844
• − Property taxes: −$986
• − Insurance: −$1,236
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,899
• − Management: −$1,899
• − Depreciation: −$7,190
• Taxable loss: −$3,319
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$797
• After-tax cash flow: $1,772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It has a spacious open floorplan and a private owner's suite. Potential value can be increased with minor exterior and interior updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding a smart home system — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Everman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818810
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,803
• Composite: 22.77/100
• National rank: #8027
• State rank: #691 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,321
• Household income: $75,955
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1264.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 35% White 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.54%
• Current HPI: 285.9894
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.11%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B