936 Knight Ave N · Thief River Falls, MN
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $888 – $1,650
Heat risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Hot days now (above 94°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 12 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- 1% rule +9.2/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Schools +3.7/10.0
- Livability +3.7/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$66,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Selling my last rental in TRF, & quot; As Is& quot; No Contract for Deed being offered. Great rental house and tenant wants to stay if possible. This is a smaller house with a lot of character. Hardwood floors on the main level. Garage has been converted to a large room which has been used as a master bedroom or living room. Basement has a good foundation and an extra room that could be a bedroom by adding an egress window. New furnace (natural gas) in 2023 and new roof in 2024. House currently rents for $700/month. Does not have to stay a rental. Serious enquiries please.
Key facts
- Good foundation
- New furnace
- Converted garage
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $66k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $250 ($3k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($939 rent vs $66k).
- Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 5.5% in Thief River Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 74/100 on livability (#219 in MN, #4,606 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
- Thief River Falls School District (town): math 39% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #201 of 301 in MN (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Pennington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $456 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Pennington County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.42% ✓
- Cap rate
- 10.83%
- Cash-on-cash
- 16.22%
- DSCR
- 1.72
- GRM
- 5.9
CMA / ARV
No comps found within radius.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 7.3%
- Equity multiple
- 1.28×
- Total profit
- $5,248
- Equity at exit
- $9,841
- IRR
- 16.6%
- Equity multiple
- 2.36×
- Total profit
- $25,199
- Equity at exit
- $5,706
Cash invested: $18,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 46 Balanced
- State Minnesota
- 46 Balanced · D+2
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 56701
- Active inventory
- 102
- Price-to-rent
- 5.9×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $939 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$346
- Tax from tax record
- −$118 /mo · $1,418/yr
- Insurance
- −$28
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$197
- Net cashflow
- $250
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $16,500
- Closing costs
- $1,980
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 11 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $66,000 Active 14 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $66,000 Active 13 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $66,000 Active 12 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $66,000 Active 11 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $66,000 Active 9 DOM
-
2026-06-12days on market $66,000 Active 8 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $66,000 Active 5 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $66,000 Active 4 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $66,000 Active 3 DOM
-
2026-06-07remarks 580-char remark
-
2026-06-07$66,000 Active 2 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $1,418 · $118/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,418 · $118/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $11,264
- − Mortgage interest
- −$3,697
- − Property taxes
- −$1,418
- − Insurance
- −$330
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$901
- − Management
- −$901
- − Depreciation
- −$1,920
- Taxable income
- $2,096
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$503
- After-tax cash flow
- $2,494/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Thief River Falls School District
- NCES district ID
- 2738850
- Math proficiency
- 39% ▼ -19.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 47% ▼ -13.00%
- Median HH income
- $49,239
- Composite
- 36.88/100
- National rank
- #4547
- State rank
- #201 of 301 in MN
Livability — Thief River Falls
- Score
- 74/100
- State rank
- #219
- US rank
- #4606
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Thief River Falls, MN
- City population
- 12,814
- Population (ZIP)
- 12,814
Population outlook (Pennington County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 14,800 people
- By 2030
- 15,030 · +1.6%
- By 2040
- 15,402 · +4.1%
- By 2050
- 15,601 · +5.4%
- By 2075
- 15,659 · +5.8%
- By 2100
- 14,231 · -3.8%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (88%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 88% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 4%
- Common ancestry
- Portuguese 34% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4%
- Foreign-born
- 3% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 94% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Pennington
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+31.5) · D 33.1% · R 64.6% · Other 2.3%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -33.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -31.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+31.5 2020: R+27.0 2016: R+27.8 2012: R+4.3 2008: D+2.1
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -123.53%
- Current HPI
- 136.4729
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 2.41%
- F500 in state
- 34
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | 2 | $407B |
|
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| Retail | 2 | $150B |
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| Consumer Goods | 2 | $32B |
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| Industrial Machinery | 2 | $6B |
|
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| Agriculture | 1 | $40B |
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| Healthcare / Medical Devices | 1 | $32B |
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Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2026-06-05 Listed $66,000 FSBO.com
Property tax history
+8.6%/yrLatest (2026): $1,418 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…