2953 Wildcat Trl · Heber-Overgaard, AZ 85933

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 910 sqft · Manufactured public records · 153 Days on market

Built 1974 0.46 ac lot $165/sqft · 21% below area Est $191k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Mountain Property with Endless Potential Nestled among the tall pines of Overgaard, this two-bedroom, one-bathroom mobile home sits on nearly half an acre (.45) of serene mountain land. The property features a spacious front deck perfect for enjoying the fresh mountain air, a cozy woodstove inside, and a rustic enclosed carport. While the home itself is in need of some work, the land and setting provide a rare opportunity. New owners could either restore the existing home or remove it entirely to build their dream retreat in the cool pines. With its beautiful lot and peaceful location, this property offers the perfect canvas to create your own mountain getaway.

Key facts

• Peaceful location
• Spacious front deck
• Beautiful lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS FRONT DECK
• COZY WOODSTOVE
• RUSTIC ENCLOSED CARPORT
• SERENE MOUNTAIN LAND
• PEACEFUL LOCATION
• BEAUTIFUL LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $477 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 3.2% in Heber-Overgaard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 254 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.62%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $191,004
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -21.47%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3305 Forest Dr	0.39mi	2/1.0	900 (-1%)	13mo	$112,500	$125	70
2137 Chevelon Rd	0.22mi	2/2.0	960 (+6%)	14mo	$290,000	$302	65
2149 Fishermans Rd	0.32mi	2/1.0	953 (+5%)	18mo	$90,000	$94	62
2070 Pinewood Dr	0.50mi	2/2.0	840 (-8%)	9mo	$186,000	$221	52
3490 Black Bear Run	0.75mi	2/1.0	960 (+6%)	5mo	$141,000	$147	52
3024 Pinewood Dr	0.32mi	3/1.5 (+1)	972 (+7%)	23mo	$250,000	$257	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $5,983
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $44,020
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85933

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,719 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $384/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $477

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,115

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $150,000 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 140 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $150,000 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 133 DOM
17. 2026-01-17
    listed $150,000 Active 678-char remark

    Show marketing remark (678 chars)

    Charming Mountain Property with Endless Potential Nestled among the tall pines of Overgaard, this two-bedroom, one-bathroom mobile home sits on nearly half an acre (.45) of serene mountain land. The property features a spacious front deck perfect for enjoying the fresh mountain air, a cozy woodstove inside, and a rustic enclosed carport. While the home itself is in need of some work, the land and setting provide a rare opportunity. New owners could either restore the existing home or remove it entirely to build their dream retreat in the cool pines. With its beautiful lot and peaceful location, this property offers the perfect canvas to create your own mountain getaway.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $384 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $990 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$606/yr (+$50/mo · 157.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$384
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,650
• − Management: −$1,650
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $3,425
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$822
• After-tax cash flow: $4,898/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392)
• NCES district ID: 0400026
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,916
• Composite: 40.42/100
• National rank: #3727
• State rank: #51 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Heber-Overgaard

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heber-Overgaard, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 3,989

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Italian 7% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.51%
• Current HPI: 358.021
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-17 Listed $150,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $384 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.