2011 Harding Ave · Vandalia, OH 45414

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1970 9,213 sqft lot Est $152k · 11% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully refreshed brick ranch in Northridge offering easy one-level living with space to spread out inside and out! Situated on a large . 21-acre lot, this 3-bedroom home features over 1,100 square feet, fresh updates throughout, and a functional layout ready for its next owner. Inside, you’ll find updated flooring, fresh paint, an updated bathroom, and spacious living areas filled with natural light. The oversized kitchen offers plenty of cabinet and counter space with a unique pop of character, while the additional flex space/sunroom provides the perfect spot for a second living area, office, playroom, or hobby space. Outside, enjoy the covered front porch,

Key facts

• Large lot
• Updated flooring
• One level living

Tags

• BRICK RANCH
• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• LARGE LOT
• UPDATED FLOORING
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Home design: Single-story brick home
• Construction: Built on a slab foundation
• Exterior features: Residential lot approximately 0.21 acres (assessor); Lot dimensions about 111 x 83

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms (approx. 10 x 12 and 8 x 10)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Total of 3 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $301 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 2.9% in Vandalia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#463 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 51 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.4% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $132,975 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.56%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $152,152
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2159 Gipsy Dr	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,135 (-1%)	6mo	$125,000	$110	74
5741 Lily Ln	0.20mi	3/1.5	1,073 (-6%)	6mo	$180,000	$168	73
6865 Keats Dr	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-6%)	4mo	$123,000	$114	65
2108 Gipsy Dr	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,053 (-8%)	4mo	$54,670	$52	64
2006 High Knoll Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,160 (+1%)	3mo	$191,000	$165	62
2211 Martin Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0	988 (-14%)	2mo	$131,400	$133	60
5421 Northcutt Pl	0.57mi	3/1.5	1,226 (+7%)	0mo	$198,900	$162	60
2203 Cardinal Ave	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,064 (-7%)	6mo	$152,000	$143	59
2213 Martin Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0	988 (-14%)	3mo	$127,000	$129	58
5718 Woodmore Dr	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,293 (+13%)	0mo	$172,500	$133	55
2416 Stop 8 Rd	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,296 (+13%)	0mo	$190,000	$147	45
2127 Marker Ave	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	989 (-14%)	7mo	$100,000	$101	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $4,176
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $59,211
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45414

• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,485 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,291/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,104

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2022 Arthur Ave Unit NA Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,500	$1.44	11d	1	0.01mi
2109 Harding Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	2d	1	0.01mi
5900 Erica Ct Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$975	$1.22	2d	1	0.38mi
3136 Silver Rock Ave Unit 3138 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1274	$1,395	$1.09	18d	1	0.96mi
2991 Benchwood Rd Unit 2993 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1063	$1,295	$1.22	2d	1	0.96mi
3006 Benchwood Rd Unit 1 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1250	$1,275	$1.02	23d	1	0.96mi
3155 Silver Rock Ave Unit 3157 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,500	$1.25	2d	1	0.96mi
3097 Silver Rock Ave Unit 3103 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1035	$1,295	$1.25	14d	1	1.03mi
4911 Northcutt Pl Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	850	$825	$0.97	2d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $135,000 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $135,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $135,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $145,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $145,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-05-22
   price $145,000
7. 2026-05-08
   listed $150,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,291 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,698 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$408/yr (+$34/mo · 31.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,818
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,291
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,425
• − Management: −$1,425
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,512
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$363
• After-tax cash flow: $3,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Vandalia

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #463
• US rank: #7669

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 14,888
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 21,167
• Household income: $54,485
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 801.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 15% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.46%
• Current HPI: 183.1124
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.41%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $145,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $150,000 Dayton MLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,291 · -4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.