123 Los Robles Rd · Elgin, TX 78621

$434,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,200 sqft · Land · 59 Days on market

Built 2026 0.51 ac lot $198/sqft · 18% below area Est $528k · 18% under $52/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This expansive 0.53-acre tract of raw land offers endless possibilities for your next chapter. This picturesque parcel combines the tranquility of rural living with essential amenities already in place, saving you time and effort. Key features include: • Water meter and electric pole: Conveniently installed, making the property ready for your plans. • Survey included: Ensuring you have all the information needed to begin your journey with confidence. • Septic available upon request • Flexible options: Whether you’re envisioning a custom-built home or placing a mobile home (10 years old or newer), this property is your blank slate to create your perfect retreat. Only 40 minutes from Austin, don’t wait to make your dream a reality! Take your buyers so they can envision the possibilities this remarkable property offers.

Key facts

• Half-acre lot
• Modern finishes
• Granite countertops

Tags

• HALF-ACRE LOT
• FULLY FENCED PROPERTY
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MODERN FINISHES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association: Las Alturas; Quarterly HOA dues of $155; HOA dues include trash service

Exterior

• Parking: Two-car garage; Driveway parking for additional vehicles; Two covered parking spaces (garage)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Water connected (public); Sewer connected; Cable available; Phone available; Septic tank on property
• Home design: Single-story home; New construction; Faces north; Slab foundation
• Construction: Shingle roof; Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Built by a private builder; Year built per public records (new construction)
• Exterior features: Private yard; Front porch; Rear porch; Full yard fencing; Back yard; Front yard; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Pantry; Recessed lighting
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Ceiling fan in at least one bedroom
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Double vanity in bathroom(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; French/atrium doors; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Pantry; Recessed lighting; Vinyl window frames
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $435k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (47.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (53.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (53.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Booker T Washington El (math 9% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,152 of 4,322 statewide, top 96%, 750 students, 89% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,841 units permitted in Bastrop County in 2024 (150 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bastrop County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$75k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $203,383 (53.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 53% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.47% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.48%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 17.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $527,950
• List price: $434,900
• Delta: -17.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $162,775
• Equity at exit: $391,792

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.42×
• Total profit: $537,987
• Equity at exit: $844,915

Cash invested: $121,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 17.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,034 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,097/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-1,165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,509

Max offer price $229,053

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-919	-5% $-1,042	+0% $-1,165	+5% $-1,288	+10% $-1,411
Rent	-10% $-1,326	-5% $-1,246	+0% $-1,165	+5% $-1,085	+10% $-1,005
Rate	-1.0pp $-946	-0.5pp $-1,055	base $-1,165	+0.5pp $-1,278	+1.0pp $-1,393

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,725
• Closing costs: $13,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $434,900 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $434,900 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $434,900 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $434,900 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $434,900 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $434,900 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $434,900 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $434,900 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $434,900 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $434,900 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $434,900 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $439,900 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $439,900 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $439,900 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    listed $439,900 Active 617-char remark
16. 2025-01-29
    soldstatus 864-char remark

    Show marketing remark (864 chars)

    This expansive 0.53-acre tract of raw land offers endless possibilities for your next chapter. This picturesque parcel combines the tranquility of rural living with essential amenities already in place, saving you time and effort. Key features include: • Water meter and electric pole: Conveniently installed, making the property ready for your plans. • Survey included: Ensuring you have all the information needed to begin your journey with confidence. • Septic available upon request • Flexible options: Whether you’re envisioning a custom-built home or placing a mobile home (10 years old or newer), this property is your blank slate to create your perfect retreat. Only 40 minutes from Austin, don’t wait to make your dream a reality! Take your buyers so they can envision the possibilities this remarkable property offers.

17. 2025-01-29
    listed $129,900 864-char remark

    Show marketing remark (864 chars)

    This expansive 0.53-acre tract of raw land offers endless possibilities for your next chapter. This picturesque parcel combines the tranquility of rural living with essential amenities already in place, saving you time and effort. Key features include: • Water meter and electric pole: Conveniently installed, making the property ready for your plans. • Survey included: Ensuring you have all the information needed to begin your journey with confidence. • Septic available upon request • Flexible options: Whether you’re envisioning a custom-built home or placing a mobile home (10 years old or newer), this property is your blank slate to create your perfect retreat. Only 40 minutes from Austin, don’t wait to make your dream a reality! Take your buyers so they can envision the possibilities this remarkable property offers.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,097 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,959 · $663/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,861/yr (+$405/mo · 157.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,406
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,361
• − Property taxes: −$3,097
• − Insurance: −$2,174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,952
• − Management: −$1,952
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$12,652
• Taxable loss: −$22,408
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,378
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Bastrop County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,260 people
• By 2030: 101,355 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 115,578 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 129,464 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 168,068 · +78.3%
• By 2100: 194,857 · +106.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Bastrop

• 2024 margin: R (+18.4) · D 40.2% · R 58.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -18.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.4 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+234.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $434,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $439,900 Unlock MLS
• 2025-01-29 Listed $129,900 Unlock MLS
• 2025-01-29 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+27.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,097 · +52.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.