26262 County Road 21 A #31 · Esparto, CA 95627

$90,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 79 Days on market

Built 1979 Good condition $125/sqft · 49% above area Est $60k · 49% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the desirable Country Villa Mobile Estates Park in Esparto, CA, this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home offers comfortable and affordable living within a 55+ community. The home has been extensively updated, featuring new flooring throughout and upgraded plumbing designed specifically for manufactured housing. The bathroom has been fully remodeled with modern finishes, and new cooling units have been installed to enhance year-round comfort. Enjoy peaceful, small-town living in a quiet and well-established community. Conveniently located near Cache Creek Casino, offering dining and entertainment options just minutes away, and approximately a 15-minute drive to Woo

Key facts

• Extensively updated
• Upgraded plumbing
• New flooring

Tags

• EXTENSIVELY UPDATED
• NEW FLOORING
• UPGRADED PLUMBING
• FULLY REMODELED BATHROOM
• NEW COOLING UNITS
• LOW-MAINTENANCE RESIDENCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $714 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#548 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Esparto Unified (town): math 10% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #454 of 517 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 721 units permitted in Yolo County in 2024 (260 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yolo County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.00%
• DSCR: 2.51
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $60,279
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: 49.31%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26262 Country Rd 21 A #45	0.00mi	2/2.0	780 (+8%)	2mo	$31,000	$40	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $30,919
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.40×
• Total profit: $85,586
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95627

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,691 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $714

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $90,000 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $90,000 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 67 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $90,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 61 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 60 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $90,000 Active 59 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,623
• − Management: −$1,623
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $7,587
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,821
• After-tax cash flow: $6,747/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath manufactured home in a desirable community offers a good investment opportunity with minimal repairs and updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both painting — refreshes interior and exterior
• Both new appliances — improves functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both painting — refreshes interior and exterior ↑
• Both new appliances — improves functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Esparto Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612930
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $64,408
• Composite: 18.39/100
• National rank: #8939
• State rank: #454 of 517 in CA

Livability — Esparto

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #548
• US rank: #18205

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Esparto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,935

Population outlook (Yolo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,183 people
• By 2030: 257,662 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 288,050 · +18.9%
• By 2050: 318,202 · +31.4%
• By 2075: 392,736 · +62.2%
• By 2100: 438,150 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Russian 5% Italian 3% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 33% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yolo

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+36.2) · D 66.3% · R 30.1% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: 0.0pp no change · 2008: 36.2pp · 2024: 36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+36.2 2020: D+41.4 2016: D+42.0 2012: D+33.2 2008: D+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.20%
• Current HPI: 309.7677
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B