14822 Ryder Ct #278 · Alta Sierra, CA 95945

$179,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,324 sqft · Manufactured · 453 Days on market

Built 2001 3,594 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New roof w/ mfg 50 year limited warranty. New deck. Move in ready. Desirable Forest Springs Mobile Home Park - Sharp Super clean 2 bedroom, 2 bath with spacious kitchen, breakfast dining area & counter seating. Great room design with adjacent living room with deck access plus vaulted ceilings and arched doorways. Spacious master suite with large, mirrored door closet. Adjoining bath with separate tub, stall shower & double sinks. Inside laundry room. Guest bedroom with bay windows and adjoining hall bath with tub shower. Covered new deck for outdoor morning coffee or BBQ's. Rear yard. 2-car attached garage. Great location. Park amenities include Club House w/ full Kitchen, Billi

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Deck access
• Arched doorways

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST DINING AREA
• GREAT ROOM DESIGN
• DECK ACCESS
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• ARCHED DOORWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot lease amount listed (information provided) — consult listing for details
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Not a land lease property (land lease listed as No)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Propane available; Individual gas meter; Public water; Public sewer; DSL and internet available
• Home design: Manufactured home in park (double wide); Original condition; Built in 2001
• Construction: Shingle/composition roof; Wood skirting; Delaware Western Homes Corp. manufacturer
• Exterior features: Auto sprinkler front and rear; Landscaping; Located on a cul-de-sac; Covered deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Gas cooktop; Hood over range; Dishwasher; Plumbed for ice maker
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double sinks; Tub with shower over; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cathedral ceiling; Covered deck; Deck attached to living room; Skylight(s)/solar tube in bathroom and kitchen; Breakfast area; Dining bar and formal dining area; Laminate countertops
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside home; Electric hook-up; Gas hook-up; 220V in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $274 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.4% in Alta Sierra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#662 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Nevada Joint Union High (town): math 25% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #201 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 197 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 453 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 453 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.54%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $88,708
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14821 Hidden Rock Dr #282	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,337 (+1%)	1mo	$89,500	$67	97
10150 Stone Arch Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+2%)	1mo	$55,000	$41	87
10042 Grinding Rock Dr	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+9%)	5mo	$90,000	$63	71
10040 Stone Arch Dr	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+9%)	4mo	$85,000	$59	70
10131 Shamrock Lode	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,488 (+12%)	1mo	$60,000	$40	69
14338 St Hwy 49 #79	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+9%)	5mo	$120,000	$83	58
10046 Dalewood Way	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+9%)	2mo	$160,000	$111	57
10088 Dalewood Way	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+9%)	0mo	$138,000	$96	57
10073 Dalewood Way	0.61mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+9%)	1mo	$115,000	$80	56
14338 State Highway 49 #65	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-9%)	6mo	$75,000	$63	52
14969 N Country Rd	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+10%)	1mo	$82,500	$57	50
10070 Dalewood Way	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-13%)	4mo	$130,000	$113	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-16,530
• Equity at exit: $26,764

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-10,979
• Equity at exit: $15,520

Cash invested: $50,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95945

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,917 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$941
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,692/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,570

Max offer price $179,500

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,875
• Closing costs: $5,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15487 Kingsbury Cir Grass Valley, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	3d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,500 Active 453 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,500 Active 452 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,500 Active 451 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,500 Active 450 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,500 Active 449 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,500 Active 447 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,500 Active 446 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,500 Active 444 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,500 Active 443 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,500 Active 442 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,500 Active 441 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,500 Active 438 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,500 Active 437 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,500 Active 436 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,500 Active 435 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,500 Active 434 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,005
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,055
• − Property taxes: −$2,692
• − Insurance: −$898
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,840
• − Management: −$1,840
• − Depreciation: −$5,222
• Taxable income: $458
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$110
• After-tax cash flow: $3,179/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nevada Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0626880
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,336
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #4393
• State rank: #201 of 517 in CA

Livability — Alta Sierra

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #662
• US rank: #20497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 27,470
• Household income: $65,989
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1624.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Arabic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -191.74%
• Current HPI: 253.8946
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.38%
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B