415 Water Bend Way · Mexico Beach, FL 32410

$398,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,806 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 2026 $221/sqft · 35% below area Est $614k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Gulf Isle offers a welcoming layout with thoughtful spaces throughout its 1,806 square feet. When you enter through the front door, the foyer opens to a bedroom on the left and to the right is the dining room, positioned perfectly for gatherings. Continue straight from the foyer to reach the kitchen, which includes a pantry, a center island, and a clear view into the great room, creating an open feel that ties the main living areas together. From the great room, sliding doors open to a 10-by-8 outdoor living space, ideal for enjoying Florida's warm weather year-round. Off the kitchen, a hallway leads to two additional bedrooms that share a full guest bathroom, complete with a linen clos

Key facts

• Pantry
• Thoughtful spaces
• Welcoming layout

Tags

• WELCOMING LAYOUT
• THOUGHTFUL SPACES
• PANTRY
• CENTER ISLAND
• OUTDOOR LIVING SPACE
• LINEN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located at 415 Water Bend Way, Port Saint Joe, FL 32410
• Financial info: List price $398,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family property; Active listing
• Exterior features: 1,806 living area

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (Gulf Isle plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (36.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (44.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (44.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 1.0% in Mexico Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#627 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $221,985 (44.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.78%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 15.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $614,383
• List price: $398,990
• Delta: -35.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
272 Salt Creek Ln	0.14mi	4/2.5	1,710 (-5%)	9mo	$349,900	$205	75
235 Salt Creek Ln	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,710 (-5%)	12mo	$368,496	$215	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-15,825
• Equity at exit: $179,403

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $33,357
• Equity at exit: $276,482

Cash invested: $111,717 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32410

• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 15.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,220 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$499 /mo · $5,985/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-1,004

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,490

Max offer price $253,760

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,748
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
264 Salt Creek Ln Port Saint Joe, FL	3.0	2.5	1533	$2,300	$1.50	13d	1	0.09mi
231 Salt Creek Ln Port Saint Joe, FL	3.0	2.5	1460	$2,100	$1.44	13d	1	0.09mi
260 Salt Creek Ln Port Saint Joe, FL	3.0	2.5	1460	$2,300	$1.58	13d	1	0.09mi
155 Town Village Blvd Mexico Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1121	$2,085	$1.86	13d	9	0.23mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $398,990 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $398,990 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $398,990 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $398,990 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $398,990 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $398,990 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $398,990 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $398,990 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $398,990 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $398,990 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $398,990 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $398,990 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $398,990 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $398,990 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $398,990 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $398,990 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $398,990 Active 17 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    listed $398,990 Active 1191-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,638
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$5,985
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,131
• − Management: −$2,131
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$19,560
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,694
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Mexico Beach

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #627
• US rank: #12224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mexico Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 499

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Black 5% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B